Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Missouri still very much a tossup

PPP's 2nd poll on the 2012 US Senate race in Missouri finds pretty much the same thing as the first one. Voters are closely divided on Claire McCaskill's job performance and she polls in the mid-40s against all of her prospective Republican opponents. She does have small leads over them that are largely attributable to their lack of name recognition.

46% of Missouri voters approve of the job McCaskill is doing to 45% who disapprove. Her reviews are almost completely polarized along party lines with 85% of Democrats happy with the job she's doing while 80% of Republicans give her poor marks. The thing of greatest concern for McCaskill should be where she stands with independents- just 36% think she's doing a good job with 51% dissenting.

McCaskill has a small advantage against all 4 Republicans we tested against her. She's up 45-44 on Congressman Todd Akin, 45-42 against former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, 46-40 against failed Congressional candidate Ed Martin, and 45-36 against former Ambassador Ann Wagner.

Less noteworthy than the difference between McCaskill's single point lead against Akin and her nine point advantage against Wagner is that McCaskill's support shows no variation from 45-46% across the four match ups. The Republicans get varying levels of support pretty much directly in line with their name recognition- 44% know Akin, 44% know Steelman, 34% know Martin, and only 26% know Wagner. The GOP field is largely anonymous at this point.

McCaskill's leads, even as small as they are, shouldn't be particularly reassuring for her. There are at least twice as many undecided Republicans as Democrats in each match up, suggesting that once the GOP candidates become better known they will probably catch up to her pretty quickly.

Voters really are simply split right down the middle on McCaskill. She's not unpopular enough to get blown out but she's probably not popular enough to win easily either, unless Republicans really go off the deep end with their nominee. This is going to be an extremely close race, just like the ones the state saw in 2000, 2002, and 2006 for the Senate.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Beats me, how the "Moderate" Democrats can be so utterly clueless...whats McCaskill's..plan..? move even further to the right...become just another Republican lite (did she not see how many of the House blue dogs lost, because the "base" wasn't there for them, in 2010?).? ..pull your head out of the sand, Claire...take a look around..people are MAD and fighting back (the WORKING class people!)...they are fighting the GOP agenda..in WI, NJ, OH, but they are cheering the Democrats who finally stood up for and with them and are fighting back..too! you think you are going to win your election by becoming what the people are fed up with...? A Republican.?...Jeez..you Dem's are dense...I don't know which Democratic "strategy expert" you guys are listening to...but better fire them and listen to the people you represent, your base..they are screaming at you...!
And would some one please tell the blathering fool "Tweety" (Chris)Matthews that the people of this country don't appear to be as "centrist" as he keeps claiming they are...(they are NOT...any more)..

edward said...

WOW, the KOS kiddies are getting to the point of frothing at the mouth....

Just curious how the 2010 elections went for the KOS kiddies? A move to the left is just what the Democratic candidates need....

Big government has gotten us into this mess, it sure isn't going to be more big government to get us out.

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