Barack Obama holds double digits over all of his potential opponents for reelection in Oregon: he's up 12 points on Mitt Romney at 50-38, 18 against Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann at 52-34 and 53-35 respectively, 21 against Herman Cain at 53-32, and 22 against Sarah Palin at 57-35.
It's no surprise that Obama's well positioned to win Oregon again. But there are 2 things worth noting about the numbers:
-They are another indication that the 2012 electoral map is shaping up to look a lot more like 2008 than 2000 or 2004. Al Gore and John Kerry both won Oregon, but it was by less than 5 points. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa were all swing states in those election years as well. But Obama won that quartet of states by at least 10 points in 2008 and in polls we've done in each of those states over the last month we've found he's positioned to do that again: he's up 9-21 points over the GOP field in Iowa, 8-21 points in Minnesota, and 12-19 points in Wisconsin. These states do not appear likely to return to their competitive status next year and that gives Obama the opportunity to again focus on expanding the map like he did in his first election.
-Obama's Oregon approval numbers are actually pretty tepid, with only 49% of voters approving of him to 45% disapproving. But despite his approval spread coming down at only +4 he still leads his potential foes by 12-22 points. It's another reminder that there's an important mass of voters that is not in love with Obama but still see him as a more palatable choice than any of the Republicans running. Consider the favorabilities of the GOP candidates in Oregon: Bachmann's at -10 (30/40), Cain at -12 (19/31), Romney at -16 (31/47), Pawlenty at -18 (19/37), and Palin at -32 (31/63). Their universal unpopularity makes it a lot easier for Obama to overcome some of his points of weakness.
It doesn't look like there will be much to watch in Oregon next year.
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8 comments:
"t doesn't look like there will be much to watch in Oregon next year."
Are you serious? I think that's tilting your partisan hand a little strong if you asked me. Obama has a 49% approval rating in the state and voters are not engaged with the crowded GOP field as yet and you're already writing off the GOP? Oregon is the most Republican state on the West Coast (or at least the least Democratic) and even Mitt Romney's 38%-50% deficit is narrower than McCain's 40%-57% defeat there in 2008. I think Oregon has a good chance to get a lot narrower between now and 2012.
No Newt? Is everyone giving up on Newt?
Nothing will be easy, but I am sticking with President Obama 100%. OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
"Obama's Oregon approval numbers are actually pretty tepid, with only 49% of voters approving of him to 45% disapproving. But despite his approval spread coming down at only +4 he still leads his potential foes by 12-22 points."
Your own polls show that Romney doesn't need high favorables for voters to win you polls when it comes to who they'll vote for.
I say, Romney could be a player in Oregon if the economy is still in the tank.
Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican for President since 1984, which was also the last time a Republican candidate got better than 47%. The state (like so many others) is trending blue, with the youth vote leaning D by better than two to one, and the rural areas of the state losing population relative to the urban areas. It's completely unsurprising that Oregon is moving out of purple-blue status and into solid-blue territory.
No mention of Ron Paul?
Typical, uninformed columnist.
Haha, it might be interesting to see Obama's approval among Democrats in Oregon, since there are an unusually high number of very far-left Democrats there. ;)
Curious to see Bachmann with relatively good numbers (comparatively) when she's probably the craziest of the lot. I'd bet as people get to know her more she will drop like a rock.
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