Last year Republicans scuttled their chances at taking back the US Senate by nominating far right unelectable candidates like Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Ken Buck in Colorado. Now GOP voters seem to have learned their lesson: 56% say it's most important to them to have a Presidential candidate who has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama, compared to only 31% who think it's more important to have someone who's conservative on every issue. That finding is an indication that the Tea Party's influence within the Republican Party may be diminished. That's bad news for Democrats...and good news for Mitt Romney.
Romney leads our newest poll with 22% to 17% for Herman Cain, 15% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, 8% for Michele Bachmann, 7% for Ron Paul, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney's strength is with those voters for whom electability is the paramount concern. He gets 27% with them to 14% each for Cain and Palin and 12% for Pawlenty. With GOP partisans more concerned about ideology Romney is third at 16%, behind Cain's 22% and Palin's 18%.
It's interesting that Cain has surpassed Palin as the candidate of choice for the 'I'd rather lose than sacrifice' crowd. Palin continues to have the highest favorability of the potential Republican candidates at 62%, putting her well ahead of Romney's 55%, Pawlenty's 44%, Cain's 40%, and Gingrich's 36%. But there just continues to be a disconnect between GOP voters liking Palin and thinking she would be a good President or Presidential candidate. Her popularity with the base is undeniable...but so is the fact that she would have an exceptionally difficult path to the nomination even if she did decide to make the race.
If Palin doesn't run Romney's lead expands. He gets 27% to 20% for Cain, 13% for Bachmann, 12% for Gingrich, 10% for Pawlenty, 6% for Paul, and 3% for Huntsman. One piece of conventional wisdom that is true: the biggest beneficiary of Palin not running would be Bachmann. She gets 32% of the Palin supporters to 17% for Gingrich, 14% for Cain, and 13% for Romney.
We also tested a sort of GOP dream field, using the Republican figures who had the best favorability numbers on our recent South Carolina and Iowa polls. Those numbers suggest that the Republican on the sidelines who could make the biggest impact if he jumped in is Chris Christie. He would get 18% to 17% for Romney, 13% for Palin, 11% for Jeb Bush and Rudy Giuliani, 8% for Michele Bachmann, and 6% for Paul Ryan and Tim Pawlenty. I think those numbers are actually a pretty good sign for Romney- he really doesn't lose that much of his support even with those other big names in the race. But it does make it clear Christie could enter late and still be very formidable.
Full results here
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10 comments:
Did Pawlenty, Paul, or Huntsman pick up any Palin voters in the case that she doesn't run?
Don’t underestimate the Cain Train, friends. Although the other night's debate didn't allow him to shine, Herman Cain's star is still rising and I think Americans will like what they hear as they get to know him better. He's a proven business success and America is desperate for a change of course, before Obama ruins us.
Check out this humorous little bit of Hollywood trickery that pits a stuttering, stammering Barack Obama against Herman Cain as they debate the merits of health care reform. Barack Obama’s worst nightmare, indeed!
http://www.youtube.com/user/Hollywood4Cain#p/a/u/1/WoXwM-suu4s
It's one thing to say you want an electable candidate. It's another thing to be able to discern who is electable. I've heard from plenty of conservative friends this week who think Bachmann is electable. It would be interesting to poll which candidates Republicans think are electable.
Next time, you poll the GOP primary, it will be interesting to see if Michele Bachmann rises and if Bachmann cuts into the support of Palin and Cain. Also Rick Perry could be a candidate soon. Perry's possible entry could shake up the GOP primary
Any idea why Pawlenty has done so much better in your last two polls of the GOP race than in other recent polls? You had him at 13% two weeks ago and 9% now; I've seen 7 other polls in between that have all shown him with support between 2% and 6% among prospective GOP voters. The confiderence interval for a candidate in the vicinity of 5% support shouldn't be that big. Just wondering...
Only 27% for Romney among those who favour "electability"? It makes me think that Republican primary voters have a different definition of "electable" than the electorate in general.
"It's one thing to say you want an electable candidate. It's another thing to be able to discern who is electable. I've heard from plenty of conservative friends this week who think Bachmann is electable. It would be interesting to poll which candidates Republicans think are electable."
True. You'll notice in the crosstabs that Bachmann still gets about as much of the folks who prioritize electability as she does of the hardcore rightwingers. We've also asked in the past whether voters think Palin can beat Obama, and while Republicans said yes, it wasn't overwhelming.
Cain has the most enthusiastic followers. The rest of the crowd is totally BORING. We can't afford another establishment candidate, a la Bob Dole or John McCain.
Tom suggested that GOP's new emphasis on electability over ideological purity means that the Tea Party's influence may be waning.
However, Rasmussen just released a poll today saying that 92% of Tea Party identifiers will vote for the eventual Republican nominee even if it isn't their favorite. That's compared to only 78% of non Tea Party Republicans who make that commitment. Additionally, 93% of all Tea Party identifiers think any Republican candidate would be better than Obama--compared to only 66% of non Tea Party Republicans who feel the same way.
What that suggests to me is that the Tea Party's priorities and game plan have fundamentally changed. They, perhaps more than anyone else, have learned their lessons on electability.
The Tea Party's absolute priority is defeating Barack Obama. It has gone from a movement strongly favoring ideological purity to an "anyone but Obama" movement.
actually CT Republicans did that when they nominated Linda McMahon to run against Richard Blumenthal.
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