Montana and Florida were the winners of our vote on where to poll this week.
The races for House and Governor in Montana are going to be a bit of a challenge because there are too many potential match ups to even come close to testing them all. We're going to have to stick to 2 or 3 candidates on each side in those two races. Help in determining who's most viable and should be included in the poll would be very helpful.
Between the Presidential, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races I don't know that there's room for anything else in Montana but if there are any other burning questions we should ask send them along.
For Florida let us know who you think we should test in the Senate race as well as any other questions we should put on there besides the standard Presidential stuff. Thanks as always for the suggestions.
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38 comments:
Re: Florida
Test Jeb Bush popularity and put him head to head vs Nelson for US Senate.
If Jeb is talked about as a Presidential candidate in 2016, why not Senate in 2012?
I know this is off the wall, but alot of the commenters at Swing State Project (now Daily Kos Elections) have had wet dreams about having Schweitzer either run for the House (apparently, the DCCC has been in contact with him) or have him switch places with Tester (where Tester would run for Governor and Schweitzer for Senate).
It'd be an interesting idea to run Senate numbers with Schweitzer to see how well he'd do against Rehberg vis-a-vis Tester. Also do Schweitzer numbers for the House seat.
There also have been some rumblings of a Schweitzer primary against Baucus in 2012 (or, more likely, that Baucus retires). You should test a Schweitzer v. Baucus match-up.
As for Florida, many believe that Rubio would make a good VP nominee because he's Hispanic/Cuban. Perhaps a question about whether or not having Rubio as VP would make you more or less likely to support the Republican ticket.
Also, for the Florida poll, it would be incredibly helpful if you could differentiate between Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanics (which, ofcourse, would require a slightly larger sample). This would allow us to see if Rubio actually has an affect on the race with Hispanics outside of Cubans.
Poll in florida whether democrats would accept Charlie Crist also test Crist vs Rick Scott
This probably goes without saying for Montana, but please poll the approval ratings for Brian Schweitzer and Max Baucus. For miscellaneous questions you could poll a potential Dem primary match up of the two for 2014 or ask respondents how they would feel about a future Schweitzer presidential run.
For Florida you should include Jeb Bush against Nelson, not because he's likely to run, but because he probably sets Republicans' ceiling. Additionally, you might test if Rubio as the GOP VP candidate has any significant difference.
For Montana, I suggest asking:
Governor:
Steve Bullock vs. Rick Hill (Hill is the best-established R candidate, while everyone is anticipating Bullock will be the front-running Dem once he announces, which is rumored to be any day now)
Senate:
Tester vs. Rehberg
House:
Daines vs. Franke Wilmer (she was the first to announce and has been campaigning longest. Other possible contenders from the Dems' side -- Gillan and Strohmaier haven't announced yet).
President:
Obama vs. Romney
House-- State Rep. Franke Wilmer and State Sen. Kim Gillan for the Democrats, Businessman and former Lt. Gov candidate Steve Daines for the Republicans.
Governor-- Hmm, if you have to stick to three candidates do either State Sen. Larry Dent or State Sen. Dave Wanzenried (they're both second-tier so likely to perform about the same), Attorney General Steve Bullock and Lt Gov John Bohlinger. Bohlinger has recently been thinking about a run and I don't think he's been polled in years, actually. He's a liberal Republican, but he'd run as a Democrat.
For the Republicans, fmr. State Senator Corey Stapleton and fmr. Congressman Rick Hill make the most sense.
Burning question--- of course. The 800 pound elephant in the room, ask about a Baucus-Schweitzer primary. There's little doubt that Schweitzer is at least thinking about it, so it would be cool if you'd shed some light on where that fight would start off. And it would be instant, huge, publicity.
Might as well ask how the Ryan "end of medicare as we know it" budget polls.
Could also ask if people would support a Schweitzer primary challenge to Baucus as he's been rumored to be considering.
For Florida, I would love to see a generic ballot for the state legislature. I have a feeling they may be as unpopular as Rick Scott.
In the senate race, test Haridopolos, Lemieux, and Hasner. No other Republicans are even running to my knowledge, and if they are they aren't serious.
A rematch between Alex Sink and Rick Scott would be interesting, as would Rick Scott vs Charlie Crist (with Crist flipping Democrat). Crist flipping Dem in general might be worth gauging a response for. Another angle might be Rick Scott in a primary vs Ag Commissioner. Adam Putman, Attorney General Pam Bondi, or a generic "other Republican". Although the Governor's race isn't until 2014, it is interesting to see just how much buyer's remorse there is here for Scott and how much GOPers might be willing to primary him.
Florida: Do you think the Medicare eligibility age should be increased from its current 65 to 67?
Did Rick Scott make the right decision rejecting Federal monies for Florida high speed rail?
For FL: Would Rubio as VP nominee make you more likely to vote for Republican ticket, less likey, or no difference?
For Florida, you can probably go with a LeBron question. See what people's attitudes are toward him after making and then choking in the finals. You could also do the 'favorite sports team' question like you did for Boston, though then you've got to spread it out among the Marlins, Rays, Jaguars, Dolphins, Heat, etc.
Montana Governor:
Steve Bullock (D) - State Attorney General, potential
Larry Jent (D), State Senator, confirmed
David Wanzenried (D), State Senator, confirmed
John Bohlinger (D), LG of Montana, potential
Rick Hill (R), former US Representative, confirmed
Neil Livingstone (R), terrorism adviser, confirmed
Ryan Zinke (R), State Senator, potential
Other names to include in primary:
*Ken Miller (R)
*Jim O'Hara (R)
*Corey Stapleton (R)
*Jim Lynch (D)
Montana House:
*Brian Schweitzer (D), governor, potential (What are his numbers in a federal race?)
*Steve Daines (R), businessman, confirmed
*Franke Wilmer (D), state representative, confirmed
*John Abarr (R), Ku Klux Klan member, confirmed
I'd be curious to see a question on a Dem primary between Baucus and Schweitzer. Down the road obviously, but if you're looking for something to poll, they've probably both got enough name ID to make it interesting.
Do you support the regulation of businesses for environmental means?
The EPA is fairly unpopular among Republicans. I wonder if it is also in "nature states" like Montana, too.
Ask about the Fair Districts law in FL or ask about the Gaming Compact with the Seminoles.
For florida,
How about the popularity of the budget? In particular, how about the education cuts, corporate tax cuts, and the fact that the budget was signed at a private event?
MT House:
Democrat:
Franke Wilmer
Kim Gillan
Dave Strohmaier
Brain Schweitzer
Republican:
Steve Daines
MT Gov:
Democrat:
Steve Bullock
Larry Jent
Dave Wanzenried
(John Bohlinger)
Republican:
Rick Hill
Jeff Essman
Ryan Zinke
Lieutentant Gov. John Bohlinger is a wildcard; he is a Republican but more likely to run as a Democrat or Independent.
Steve Daines as the Montana Republican for House. State Senator Franke Wilmer is his only opponent right now, so poll her. Brian Schweitzer has suggested his name for the position.
NVM. Forget Schweitzer.
This article is insightful.
http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_81d72166-4d61-5211-81b7-1920a717e174.html
For the Florida Senate, through in Mike McCalister, who just announced he's running. He did pull in 10% in the GOP gubernatorial primary last year and he has tea party support.
As I usually do, I am going to list 4 or 5 candidates, for the possibility you do primary polling. All of the people I will be listing are confirmed or publicly expressing interest.
Montana:
Governor:
Republican:
* Former Congressman Rick Hill
* State Senate Majority Leader Jeff Essman
* State Senator Ryan Zinke
* Terrorism and national security analyst Neil Livingstone
Democrat:
* Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock
* Montana Deptartment of Transportation Director Jim Lynch
* State Senator Larry Jent
* State Senator Dave Wanzenried
For Republican, Democrat, and Independent:
* Lieutenant Governor of Montana John Bohlinger. He has said he is considering running as an Independent, but said possibly as a GOP or DEM. Being fair, he did say he would likely choose to run as a Dem than a Republican.
Montana Senate:
* Rehberg vs. Tester - this race is basically set.
Montana House:
Republican:
* Ku Klux Klan member John Abarr (I don't agree with his views at all, but he is running, and would be interested to see if he has any support in a GOP primary or in the general)
* Businessman Steve Daines
Democrat:
* State Representative Franke Wilmer
* State Senator Kim Gillan
* Missoula City Councilman Dave Strohmaier
___________________________________
Florida:
Senate:
Republicans vs. Nelson:
* Former U.S. Senator George LeMieux
* State Senate President Mike Haridopolos
* Former State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner
* Former Ruth Chris Steak House CEO Craig Miller
Other Florida:
* Scott vs Sink rematch
* Jeb Bush approval
* Charlie Crist approval
* Scott vs. generic Democrat for 2014
* Scott vs. Unnamed Republican for 2014 (Ask Republican Primary responders as the talk of a possible strong primary challenge is being reported)
Thank you PPP so much. I know you can't do all, but just some suggestions along the way. Thank you again!!
For Montana House:
Dems - Franke Wilmer and Kim Gillan
GOPers - Steve Daines and John Abarr
For Gov
Dems - Steve Bullock and Dave Wanzenried
GOPers - Rick Hill and Ken Miller (this represents the insiders (Hill) vs. the Tea Party (Miller)
Please include Rudy Giuliani in your Florida 2012 GOP nomination and general election polls.
Poll Rudy Giuliani for President against Obama in Florida
I think you can forget about Strohmaier. I met him once in 2009 campaigning for his council seat, and he's not a bad guy, but he's not winning a statewide primary. Or even coming in second in the primary.
It could be really interesting to continue to add to your state-by-state results for same-sex marriage, especially with all the publicity surrounding the issue recently in NY/Prop 8. Compiling the opinion on the issue in every state could make for a very telling and interesting feature that would be a great companion to national survey results that show fast-increasing support and would add very valuable information at the way the Americans' views on the issue are shaping up around the country.
So I would love to see up and down numbers (should it be legal or illegal) for each state, especially Montana where I don't think I've ever seen a statewide poll of the issue.
I'd also second the generic state legislature question in both states to see how the Republicans are faring on a more local level.
Hi PPP,
I was wondering if you could do a Presidential Polls in Texas, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, North Dakota, & South Dakota.
Thanks
When you test GOP candidates against Obama, It would be interesting if you did Romney v Obama and then later said Romney/Rubio v Obama/Biden to see if there is any difference. Rubio has a strong chance of being VP for a number of reasons.
2016 - Clinton vs Jeb
2016 - Clinton vs Rubio
2016 in Montana - Schweitzer vs Generic GOP for pres
Except perhaps for Indiana, Montana looks like the most 'interesting' state politically in 2012.
Florida -- if a recall election were possible for Governor Scott, would you go for it?
Wouldn't generic matchups be more appropriate for these two states?
I think you should test Ron Rushing in the Senate race in Florida. He is quickly becoming a candidate that people are watching; they are taking notice of his message and his common sense approach to solutions. He is not a career politician, but a very "down to earth" businessman. He is grounded on the issues affecting the people. You might want to check him out. I believe he will sneak up on the other candidates as the race goes forward.
Florida:
Senate:
Republicans vs. Nelson:
* Ron Rushing - Software Company Owner and Businessman
* Former U.S. Senator George LeMieux
* State Senate President Mike Haridopolos
* Former State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner
Craig Miller hasn't even announced yet. Can't watch a candidate that hasn't announced that he's running.
Ron Rushing is the ONLY candidate that has put his name boldly behind the FAIRTAX.
Please ask the same-sex marrige question!
-FL Governor Rick Scott's popularity among Floridians
-Generic Ballot in Florida Legislature (now that the fair districts amendments have passed in 2010, I'm really curious)
-Generic Ballot in Montana Legislature
-Gay Marriage/Civil Unions/None question (would be nice to see but won't be disappointed if you choose to skip it.)
Test Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll, Adam Hasner, Mike Haridopolos, George LeMieux, Mike McCalister against Nelson and all in the primary. Test Rubio approval rating and whether a Republican-Rubio ticket would seal the deal for Floridians in 2012.
Hill won't be the front-runner given his marital infidelity with a cocktail waitress - http://mtcowgirl.com/2011/04/04/montana-gop-hopeful-might-have-mermaid-fetish/
Corey Stapleton vs. Steve Bullock in Montana will be the candidates.
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