Wednesday, April 7, 2010

The 2012 Senate Picture

Our Pennsylvania poll this week found Bob Casey's approval rating in negative territory at 31% approving and 38% disapproving of his job performance. That's yet another data point suggesting a very tough cycle for Democrats on the Senate front in 2012. Last week we found Claire McCaskill at 38/51 in Missouri, two weeks ago we found Sherrod Brown at 32/39 in Ohio, and four weeks ago we found Bill Nelson at 37/40 in Florida. In New Jersey and Virginia polling last fall we found Bob Menendez at 34/45, and although we found Jim Webb in positive territory we also found him losing a hypothetical contest to George Allen.

Do all these upside down approval numbers mean these folks are going to lose? Not necessarily- this may be a low water point for Democrats and things could be completely different by 2012. What the data does suggest is that few of these folks are going to coast to reelection- they may win but they're going to have to fight pretty hard for it.

That's a big contrast from the Republican Senate class of 2004. Lisa Murkowski, John Thune, Tom Coburn, Johnny Isakson, and Jim DeMint are all coasting to reelection now after first being elected then with only David Vitter and Richard Burr facing serious opposition.

Democrats really need to cut their losses this year because it is not going to be a favorable playing field the next time around.

3 comments: said...

Bill Nelson has done little for the citizens of Florida other than take a ride on the space shuttle. His lack of leadership on the Health Care debate only reinforced this. The polling in Florida was overwhelmingly opposed to ObamaCare and Senator Nelson thumbed his nose at his constituents.

People will remember this in 2012.

AkshIye said...

I really don't think this means much. EVERYONE's approval ratings are in the toilet right now due to the economy. And with nearly ALL the Democrats' vulnerable seats (except Nebraska) in swing states, these guys will all sink or swim with Obama. If he wins a comfortable reelection, all or nearly all will win reelection. If he loses or only barely wins reelection, several will lose their seats.

Christian Liberty said...

Those who increase government spending and regulation will be unpopular. Those who resist spending increases and regulatory burdens will be popular.

It's not the economy that is dragging down the Democrats, it's their economic policies.

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