Monday, April 19, 2010

Romney continues to lead

Mitt Romney continues to lead the way among the top Republicans likely to run for President in 2012. He's polling at 33% nationally to 27% for Mike Huckabee and 23% for Sarah Palin.

PPP state by state polling has found Huckabee strong in the South and Romney winning everywhere else and the national numbers confirm that trend. Huckabee leads his home region with 37% to 25% for Palin and 23% for Romney. But in the Northeast, Midwest, and West Romney leads with anywhere from 37 to 39% with Palin second in her territory and Huckabee getting runner up honors everywhere else.

The big story in 2012 polling continues to be Palin's surprisingly poor performance. She hasn't led in a single one of the dozen individual states we've taken a look at, and runs ten points behind Romney nationally. She is actually the most well liked of the GOP front runners with 66% viewing her favorably to 55% for Huckabee and 54% for Romney, but there's a disconnect between how much voters like Palin and how willing they are to support her for President.

Beyond the regional difference Romney leads with pretty much every subgroup of the Republican electorate at this point- moderates and conservatives, women and men, and every age group except the under 30 crowd.

Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul will be added for next month's poll.

Full results here


Unknown said...

Newt's raising money. He will run. He needs to raise his profile with the Republican grassroots. The problem with Newt is that he's a Republican intellectual and lacks charisma. That's a bad combo to get the Republican nomination.

The further away we get from her actually being in office Palin comes across more as someone the tea party crowd loves but isn't a candidate. You could poll Michele Bachmann. She's the most popular Republican in the House, partially because Democrats hate her. She wouldn't poll well for President.

Jon said...

You're going to poll Ron Paul, but not Thune or Pawlenty?

Anonymous said...

Where do I find the polling methodology? Are you polling all voters or only current GOP registrants? I ask that in particular with Ron Paul in mind, since he does so well with independents.

mayonnaise said...

Mike Pence!!!

Suzu said...

The Real Newt Gingrich
This video examines his track record and shows his true motivations.

Anonymous said...

Tom, your midwest numbers looks questionable based on the actual states you have polled. Looking at the regional breakdown, Romney is beating Huckabee by 13 in the Northeast and by 11 in the Midwest.

While neither of these numbers is hardly insurmountable, the truth is in the recent spate of PPP midwestern polls, there is NOT ONE in which Romney leads Huckabee by 11. In fact, the greatest difference was in WI, where Romney leads by 9 points; in IL it was only 6. The all-important OH was a virtual tie within the MOE of 4 points. Similarly, PA, which is more NE, was at a virtual tie within the MOE of 4 points.

And in TX Romney is again within the MOE.

You seem to be making a weighty case for Romney being the constant frontrunner, whereas in many battleground states Romney and Huckabee are clearly within the MOE.

And, Tom, you know as well as I do that this will not remain a three-person race -- especially with Palin doing so poorly.

Why not run a few polls just Romney vs. Huckabee -- which is going to the end result if they both run.

TG said...

Hey folks don't forget that PPP is a lefty polling group. It's in their best interest to see Romney as the candidate, because his MassCare will negate any mention of ObamaCare on the campaign trail. Thus not only will it not be repealed, it will become a moot point on the trail because Romney won't say a word about it.

nader paul kucinich gravel mckinney said...

Romney continues to lead
A Poll with no Dr Ron

for sale
or rent

Would I lie to you
Would I lie to you honey
Now would I say somethin' that wasn't true
I'm askin' you sugar would I lie to you

Brice D. L. Acree said...

I back Jon's comment -- poll on Thune. He's my pick to win the 2012 Republican nomination.

You should also mention in your post that the error bars cross for Romney/Huckabee and Huckabee/Palin, and they come damn close (at what, p<.065?) for Romney/Palin. With so much uncertainty this far out -- and the fact that you're not polling other strong contenders -- that would be a helpful note.

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