Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Fiorina up big

Carly Fiorina's superior resources always had the potential to blow her opponents for the California Republican Senate nomination out of the water, and in the closing stretch that appears to be exactly what's happening. Fiorina has now opened up a 20 point lead with 41% to 21% for Tom Campbell and 16% for Chuck DeVore.

It's hard to build name recognition in a state as big and expensive as California, and Fiorina is the only one of the Senate candidates who's known to more than half of Republican primary voters. 46% have a favorable opinion of her to 17% with a negative one and 37% having no opinion. By comparison 54% of voters have no opinion about Campbell to 28% with a positive one and 19% with an unfavorable one, and DeVore is even less well known with 62% having no opinion about him to 24% with a favorable one and 14% with a negative one.

A look insider DeVore's numbers in particular show some promise for his campaign that will likely never be fulfilled. Among voters who know enough about him to have an opinion- whether it's a positive or a negative one- he trails Fiorina only 37-35. But with a 25 point gap in name recognition and without the money to close that gap it's going to be very hard for him to have a serious chance to win this race at the end.

Campbell actually leads the way among moderate voters, 32-30 over Fiorina. But Campbell is a distant third among conservatives with 15%, running slightly behind DeVore at 19% and way behind Fiorina's 47% standing. The attacks on Campbell's moderation are clearly proving to be effective.

There's been a large shift in the state of this race over the last few weeks so it seems plausible the electorate is fluid enough that Fiorina could still lose. But with a 20 point lead and opposition to her split among two candidates she looks like the overwhelming favorite at this point.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Rs don't want Campbell. Period. He's more liberal than Boxer on a few issues, besides his affiliations with radicals and his anti-Israel views.

Anonymous said...

Wow! The power of a Palin endorsement! In SC and CA!

Anonymous said...

Did you poll South Carolina's 2012GOP contest as well?

Christian Liberty said...

Any polling on Boxer vs Kaus?

Unknown said...

The polling in this race has been all over the place. Two weeks ago Survey USA had Campbell up 11. Now they have him down 23. Besides your poll we've had Research 2000 with Campbell up 15, PPIC with Fiorina up 2 and M4 with Campbell up 5. Tom Campbell might be the first Republican to hang onto a poll commissioned by the Dailykos.

Anil Petra said...

Look, you can't hate a guy who, like Tom Campbell, joined the majority that voted, successfully, to impeach President William Jefferson Clinton.

It's not as if he's Specter, who voted "not proven", denying us the 51st vote for removal from office. (To this day, Clinton can say it was a deadlocked vote).

But Tom Campbell has had his day, ran his campaigns, won some, lost others. I don't see anything new, any ambitious plans, any leadership. He's a Republican light, who won't excite the base or win over Democratic voters.

It's Carly's turn. You go girl.

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