Wednesday, May 19, 2010

More Bad Poll Numbers for Burr

The Civitas Institute, a Republican think tank in North Carolina, released new polls this week in two GOP leaning state senate districts that found Richard Burr with approval numbers way under water.

In SD-45, which ranks an R+10 on the organization's Partisan Index (similar to Charlie Cook's PVI), Burr's approval is only 33% with 43% of voters disapproving of him. In SD-50, which is an R+6, Burr's numbers are similarly bad at 29% approving and 39% disapproving.

These polls were conducted by SurveyUSA. If they're finding Burr's poll numbers to be that bad in Republican friendly parts of the state I can only imagine how poor they would look statewide.

The conventional wisdom leading up to yesterday had been that Democrats wouldn't be able to win this year in places, like North Carolina, that didn't vote heavily for Barack Obama in 2008. But the Presidential vote in PA-12 two years ago was almost identical to North Carolina, and Democrats managed to win an open seat by nine points there. Burr certainly has a lot of advantages as he bids for reelection, but increasingly his poll numbers leave much to be desired.


Anonymous said...

Jensen I wanna see a link to this poll and don't forget to vote for Elaine in the runoff she's awesome. We all know that who you really want to vote for.

Rasmus said...

Tom, two questions-

1) Do you think it's even remotely realistic that there are only 13% of undecided voters in a poll of REGISTERED voters six months out of an election for State Senate? To me this looks like IVR gone wild a little bit- I know you guys have mastered it, but Rasmussen and apparently SUSA always seem to eliminate undecided voters even in contests where no candidate is well known.

I'd have expected 13% decided voters, if anything.

Also, do you have any insight in why SUSA did this? I thought the guys at Civitas were working with Tel Opinion.

Anonymous said...

I am thinking about switching my vote to Marshall, on June 22nd. Either way, there is a good chance that NC may be sending another Dem to Washington! Good Bye Burr!

Anonymous said...

I really hope we can get rid of Burr.I found a website from a republican who wants Burr gone also.Here's the website . .

Glen Tomkins said...


I thought that Obama carried NC in 2008, but lost in PA-12.

Tom Jensen said...

That is correct but in both places it was by less than 1% so the results were virtually identical if the outcomes were not.

Dr. J said...

Hate to say it, but these don't look too good for legislative Democrats. Anti-incumbent across the board?

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