Monday, October 11, 2010

Voting Time

We have numbers from Florida, Nevada, and West Virginia coming this week. Here are your choices for next week:

-California. It's been 4 weeks now since we polled there- are Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer holding strong? And we get more calls about the marijuana referendum than anything else these days so I know folks are always up for more numbers on that.

-Illinois. We polled there a few weeks ago but it's one of the few states with really close races for both Senate and Governor so no problem with doing it again.

-New Hampshire. I'm still interested in the question of whether John Lynch is in trouble or not- the polling is all over the map- and the polls also differ on if Democrats have any remaining chance at winning that Senate race.

-Ohio. Lots of polls show Ted Strickland more or less tied. A fair number still show him down by a lot too. I'd be interested to see where we fall in there.

-Pennsylvania. I think the conventional wisdom is that the Senate race is over but conventional wisdom is perfectly capable of being wrong- there have been a couple polls showing it as close as 3 or 5 points over the last couple weeks and it would be worth taking a look at whether Joe Sestak's getting back into this thing.

-Washington. For a while it looked like Patty Murray was pulling away but now it seems the polls might be going back in the other direction and the numbers we found for her within Dave Reichert's Congressional district last weekend were not all that encouraging. We haven't polled here since July.

-Wisconsin. The public polls have developed into a consensus that Feingold's down by about 7 points or so but his internal polling shows a rosier race and the state has a competitive Governor's race as well.

Voting is open until Wednesday morning.


Dale Sheldon-Hess said...

Do you guys just not do Alaska?

It turned into a three-way race at the last possible minute, and no one has polled it since before the Democrats started advertising.

Anonymous said...

Are you going to do NH House polls? (2)?

wt said...

I think it has to be Washington at this point. That's the last piece of the Dem firewall (CT, CA, WV: 2 of 3 will give the GOP the majority).

Very possible that WV will fall, and thus leave the GOP needing one more seat to take the Senate. Since we've seen the polling data in CA and CT lately, Washington is basically the last stand for both parties.

Shayan Banerjee said...

If you poll Pennsylvania can you ask favorables for Rick Santorum? Sestak has been trying to work that angle on Toomey lately and I would like to see if it's an effective one.

Minnesota Mike said...

Washington Senate

FWIW Dino Rossi carried the 8th CD in both his runs for Gov, 51-49 in 2008, 54-44 in 2004. If he is only tied as your KOS 8th CD poll indicates that is actually good news for Murray.

Anonymous said...

About california, could you maybe ask about the other Propositions, especially Prop 23. Down-ballot races would be a plus too, as im confident in Brown and Boxer as of right now

NRH said...

Another vote for NH with house polls. With only two districts, house polling is relatively feasible to do, and the numbers have been volatile. Some polls have had Shea-Porter well ahead, while the recent badly-flawed UNH poll gave Guinta a lead; the only poll of the Kuster/Bass race I've seen was that one, which gave Bass a lead within the MoE (and assumed a 10-point male lean among the electorate and a heavy Republican registration advantage that doesn't exist in the state).

Anonymous said...

Washington or California should win. Control of the Senate and all.

I voted Washington, since Cali already has the Field Poll.

Anonymous said...

You say that Patty Murray's results in your CD8 poll aren't that encouraging. Why?

You have Murray-Rossi at 49-49. But Democrats do better statewide than they do in CD8.

In 2004, Murray won by 7 points in CD8, but 12 points statewide. Bush won by 3 points in CD8, but 7 points statewide. Rossi won by 10 points in CD8, but it was basically a tie statewide.

In 2006, Cantwell won by 11 points in CD8, but 17 points statewide.

In 2008, Obama won by 15 points in CD8, but 17 points statewide. Rossi won by 2 in CD8, but Gregoire won by 6 statewide.

Averaging all of this together, CD8 is about 6 points more conservative than the state. Or, to put it another way, CD8 has NEVER been less than 2 points more conservative than the rest of the state in the last 6 years. This seems to be a good result to Patty Murray.

Hopefully you'll poll Washington State, since at this point it seems pretty clear that the winner of Washington will decide who controls the Senate.

Anonymous said...

Actually, in 2004, Bush won by 3 in CD8, but Kerry won by 7 statewide (not Bush by 7). This makes CD8 7 points more conservative than the state on average.

Anonymous said...

Please do a Georgia poll soon! I beg of you! I've been asking for one since your last and that was ages ago without the likely voter screen. Pretty please, with a cherry on top?

MaryP said...

I disagree with your assessment of WA 08. Rossi has to pull over 53% of the 8th to content. It is his home district and he should be doing better than he is.

Chuck T said...

Regarding the 49-49 tie in the WA congressional district, here is what somebody found and published on the swing state project:

UPDATE: H/t to Minnesota Mike in comments, who points out (via the truly helpful Washington SoS website) that Rossi won 51-48 in the 8th in the 2008 gubernatorial race (which Chris Gregoire won 53-47), and by 54-44 in the 2004 gubernatorial race (which Gregoire won 48.87-48.87). That may actually be a better benchmark than Obama numbers, come to think of it -- as, very importantly, Rossi is from the 8th, as he used to represent the Issaquah-based 5th LD in the state Senate. So if he's tied in his own neighborhood, he's probably lagging the 50% mark by a bit statewide.

So it's not necessarily bad news that there is a tie there since Rossi has won that district in two previous statewide elections and still went on to lose.

Anonymous said...


Dustin Ingalls said...

"Do you guys just not do Alaska?"

We did it the weekend after the primary, and as you can see, we just did it this past weekend for DailyKos. So we've done it twice in the past five or six weeks.

Anonymous said...

I see I'm not the alone person what would like to know about Vermont. Without no-Rasmussen polls from this state. I wish know about some interesting and competitive races:

VT-Lieutenant Governor
VT-Secretary of State
VT-State Auditor

And would be so good to have some reference about P Leahy in his bid for the reelection.

Dale Sheldon-Hess said...

Hey, be fair! When I asked, the Kos poll wasn't out yet, and you'd made no mention that you were doing it! I'm not a mind reader!

And also: thank you.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"Hey, be fair! When I asked, the Kos poll wasn't out yet, and you'd made no mention that you were doing it! I'm not a mind reader!"

Yeah, I know, which is why I held off on answering until today: we can't talk about our private client work unless we're told to, so we don't announce what we're polling for them until they've posted about it.

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