Thursday, September 11, 2008

Colorado: VP Effect

John McCain's pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate is not playing as well in Colorado as it is in some other battleground states. In Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina the average shows 10% more voters who say they are more likely to vote for McCain because of his choice than those who say they are less likely to vote for him.

It's more of a mixed bag in Colorado, with 41% saying they are more inclined to support McCain because Palin's on the ticket with 38% reporting that they are less likely to do so.

Among independents Palin is a net negative, with 42% saying they are not as likely to vote for McCain now compared to 40% who say they are more likely to. Barack Obama leads among independent voters by 11 points.

The running mate choices and conventions appear to have helped solidify each party's support for its nominee- McCain is now up 82 points with Republicans after it was 73 last month, and Obama now has a 79 point lead with Democrats after it was 74 previously. Palin appears to have done a little more to get Republican voters on the same page than Joe Biden did.

Full results here.

4 comments:

Brandon said...

Your poll is flawed.

Republicans hold a 4 point registration advantage over Democrats, while you claim Democrats have the party ID advantage. Plus you have too many Hispanics. Looks like you polled too many people from the Denver Metro area.

In reality, McCain is up by 3 or 4.

Tom Jensen said...

What poll did you read? Republicans had a party id advantage in this survey.

It may not have been as big as the registration gap, but we are polling id, not registration, and in this political climate there are folks registered as Republicans who are not identifying themselves as such.

Adam Terando said...

Yes, plus many registered independents in Colorado are really Democrats. I think that phenomenon is more pronounced in Colorado than in other states. Kind of like how many registered Democrats in the south would self-identify as republican.

Chris said...

Oh yah Brandon.this poll is flawed. Just like that Fox News/Rasmussen poll...which had Obama up by an even larger percentage.

Anyway, I take it this poll was conducted Sunday-Thursday. Were McCain's numbers higher in the beginning of the week? Did Obama's numbers rise toward the end of the week? Or was it fairly even throughout the week?

 
Web Statistics