Thursday, September 4, 2008

Democracy Corps Poll

When we put out our poll last week showing Kay Hagan with a lead on Elizabeth Dole, I was 100% comfortable with it. We interviewed more than enough people, our demographic breakdown easily passed the smell test, and her relatively weak standing with black voters in the poll seemed like an indication that she was actually doing better even than our poll indicated.

But it's always nice to get some confirmation and a new Democracy Corps poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gives it. Hagan leads 50-45. And Elizabeth Dole's approval rating is down to 38%. We showed it in the mid-40s for most of last year so it's another indication of the corrosive impact the DSCC ads have had on the way voters view her.

They also show John McCain leading Barack Obama by three points, the same result we've found the last couple months.

More less than good polling news for Bev Perdue. She's knotted with Pat McCrory at 46-46. This is the first survey not to show Perdue at least with a small lead since we put out one showing the race tied about one week after the primary. I have some thoughts on what I think she needs to do differently moving forward that I'll write up this afternoon.

There's an enormous amount of material in this poll, and I'll delve into it some more later. For now here's the link. Kudos to Democracy Corps both for releasing the entire survey and for being transparent about their topline demographics- that's something that should be expected for every public poll.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

How is this more or less good news for Perdue if she has dropped six points in your polling? I follow lots of polls and no one had her lead as large as you at any point. I think you are a little pro Perdue. She has to figure out what to do, not you. The debates are a killer for her. I am embrassed for her.

Tom Jensen said...

I think you have a reading comprehension problem. Read the post again.

Anonymous said...

Or poorly worded script on your part. Address the issue on what you think Perdue needs to do and how that activity is appropriate from the person doing the polling. I thought your job was to measure public opinion not establish it.

Tom Jensen said...

You evidently have about zero understanding of what pollsters do if you think giving advice to candidates is inappropriate...that's what the purpose of 90% of political polling is.

I'm not surprised you don't want to take responsibility for your posts by putting your name on them.

Anonymous said...

It is actually 50-44, or 48-43 without counting the people leaning toward candidates. Later in the additional information question, it is tied, 47-47. Looks like a close one unless a bomb drops from either campaign.

Anonymous said...

You are correct and I do send my regrets. I did not know you were the pollster for the Democrat Party.

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