Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Florida President

John McCain 50
Barack Obama 45

John McCain has expanded his lead in Florida since PPP's last poll of the state, which showed him leading by three points.

A troubling trend for Obama is that as white voters move away from being undecided it seems they are almost all moving into the McCain column. Over PPP's three Florida polls the percentage of undecided white voters has gone from 11% down to 9% and now to 5% and not coincidentally McCain's share of those votes has gone from 53% to 55% to 61%. Obama will need to reverse that trend to have a chance at winning the state.

Obama is keeping it within range overall by dominating with black voters (88-10) and winning with Hispanics (49-42). The latter is another group he'll probably need to improve his standing with to take Florida.

Like we found in Michigan yesterday, McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate is doing more for him than Obama's pick of Joe Biden. 45% of Floridians say they are now more likely to vote for McCain because of his Veep choice, while just 36% say the same of Obama.

Full results

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hate to say this but I really do think your Florida poll is way off base. My reason? Your partisan id breakdown is completely out of whack with the voter registration trends in the state over the past year. PPP's poll shows 43% of the respondents were Reps, 41% were Dems, and 16% Indies. The registration trends tell a different story. At the beginning of this year, Dems accounted for a little over 41% of the registered electorate, Reps for a little over 37%, and Indies made up the rest. As of August, Dems account for over 43% of the electorate and Reps have dropped to 36%. Yet despite this trend line, the PPP poll shows Reps overpeforming and Dems underperforming. I just cannot square that result with what is going on on the ground where Dems are overperforming in registration and Reps are underperforming.

Ranjit said...

Anonymous,

Party registration cannot be a true indicator of the polls. If I am right, every time Democrats have the upper hand in the registration. But when it comes to the election, lot of Regan Democrats vote for Republicans. In this election, blue collar white democrats seem to have a tough time voting for Obama. It is the fact. If Hillary Clinton was in the ticket, may be, they would be in the democrat column.

Anonymous said...

I'm talking about registration TRENDS not the raw numbers per se. The trends this year in FLA is that Dems percentage share of the registered electorate has INCREASED while that of Reps has DECREASED. Looking as far back as 1996 there has NOT been a Presidential election in FLA where EITHER party's percentage share of the registered electorate has INCREASED (none!). That is why it is inconceivable that Dems would UNDERPERFORM from their share of the registered electorate (as PPPs FLA poll shows) while Reps would OVERPERFORM (which again PPPs poll shows).

 
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