Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Obama takes a small lead in Florida

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 46

Concern over the economy has allowed Barack Obama to take a small lead in Florida.

64% of Floridians surveyed say the economy is their top issue, and Obama has a 55-40 lead with those voters. In a January PPP poll just 26% of voters in the state said they were most concerned with the economy.

The events of the last few weeks seem in particular to have helped move independents into the Obama camp. Three weeks ago the candidates were tied, now Obama has a 48-40 advantage with those voters.

Perhaps the most important development for Obama's prospects in the state is significantly improved standing with white voters. Where John McCain had a 27 point advantage with them right after his party's convention, that is now down to 11 points.

Another factor that could be hurting John McCain is the rapidly declining popularity of Sarah Palin:

Date

Palin Favorability

9/7

45/34

9/28

40/41


Sarah Palin's net favorability with Florida voters has dropped 12 points over the last three weeks.

Initially 41% of independents said her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain with 38% saying it made them less likely to do so. Now just 32% say she makes them more favorable to McCain with 46% saying they are less likely to vote for him.

Full results here

8 comments:

p smith said...

The other big change is that Obama seems to have unified the Dem vote compared to previous polls.

Tom, are we due another state poll this week (Michigan)?

Tom Jensen said...

Yes- Wednesday or Thursday.

Tim Weiss said...

Someone needs to do a Nevada poll sometime soon...

Anonymous said...

Think you might be undersampling African-Americans a bit.

They were 16% of your last poll, and make up ~16% of the population of Florida. But they're only 13% in this poll... that's the main reason why Obama has improved 16 points among white voters (~70% of Florida's population) but only 8 points overall, in my opinion.

Day Off Diet said...

HECK YEAH! Turn Florida BLUE!!! Someone would have to be crazy to vote for McCain/Palin at this point. Can you imagine Palin as our President? SERIOUSLY. Imagine it. It's frightening. There's a very good chance that could happen if McCain/Palin are elected. Don't let it happen!

Levi said...

"Someone needs to do a Nevada poll sometime soon..."

I second that. Also, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Missouri are in dire need of a good polling.

Anonymous said...

Indiana needs more polling as well.

p smith said...

Well, Quinnipiac have just confirmed an 8 point Obama lead in Florida so perhaps Tom isn't the Obama operative that some like to paint him.

Shocking numbers for McCain who is also down 8 in Ohio and 15(!) in Pennsylvania.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218

 
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