Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Odds and Ends

-We will begin weekly NC polling September 22nd. We are not going to poll every Council of State race every week but will poll them in sets of three in clusters based on perceived competitiveness. Week 1 will have Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, and Labor Commissioner. Week 2 will have Lieutenant Governor, Superintendent, and Agriculture Commissioner. Week 3 will have Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Auditor. It's odd for a race with an incumbent losing to be in that third tier but our polls have so consistently shown Beth Wood clocking Les Merritt that that's where it's going at least for now.

-We'll release our Colorado poll tomorrow and have new Ohio and Virginia polls next week. We'll continue to do around 3 public polls a week through the election with a focus on those three states, Michigan, Florida, and North Carolina. Folks are always e-mailing us and saying 'why don't you poll this state, why don't you do this Congressional race?' Remember that we are most certainly available for hire and provide good polling at a good price. Just e-mail if you want to sponsor a survey.

-I think folks are being too hard on Survey USA about the NC poll. The only reason we even know what to criticize in the poll is that they are so transparent about their demographics and survey methods- they provide a model for everyone else in our industry on that front. There is not a company out there that doesn't have a goofy poll every now and then, and people are too quick to forget how phenomenal their overall track record is. They are certainly the competitor whose numbers I trust the most.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tom outside the five states you will be polling (VA, OH, NC, FLA, and Michigan) what other states would you wish to poll but simply cannot afford to do so? I'd really like to know where you think pollsters should focus on. I'd love to see NV, CO, WISC, NH and Indiana polled a little more often by anyone.

Tom Jensen said...

I agree with your list- and just to clarify we will be polling Colorado every two or three weeks.

I would definitely add New Mexico where it'd be nice to see a big sample poll- Quinnipiac?- since the surveys there have shown some conflict and all had sample sizes of 700 or less.

Would also like to see more Montana and North Dakota polling obviously- I am curious about Georgia, although maybe Obama pulling resources out tells us all we need to know there.

And I wish there was more Oregon polling if for no other reason than to get a clearer picture of Jeff Merkley's chances.

thisniss said...

Just wanted to say how much I appreciate your polling - especially the depth of your internals in all your releases.

Last night, after seeing the latest SUSA poll for NC, I said to my husband, "Whatever. I won't react to anything until I see the next PPP poll." Now I feel vindicated!

Elliot said...

Tom,

As a New Mexico native, I'm pretty surprised you haven't polled our state, especially with all the competitive races we have going (and since the only poll of the Senate race here is Rasmussen, it's hard to tell whether or not the race is closing or that it's just something inherent in the Rasmussen poll).

Incidentally, I agree that SUSA is, by and large, a good pollster who is very good about posting cross-tabs, but they do seem to have problems polling the south.

 
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