Thursday, September 18, 2008

White, Rural Democrats in North Carolina

The ability to keep rural white Democrats in the party fold could be the key to victory for Barack Obama, Bev Perdue, and Kay Hagan this fall.

Right now they aren't doing such a good job of that. Barack Obama leads 48-38 with those voters, Bev Perdue leads 54-26, and Kay Hagan leads 59-34.

There are indications though that these voters can be won over. For instance Libertarian candidates Bob Barr and Michael Munger are earning 11 and 8% respectively from folks within that demographic. Third party candidates usually don't do as well at the ballot box as they do in polls, and high levels of support expressed for them could be a sort of placeholder while people decide if they're going to vote for McCain or Obama.

What's important to these voters? Their top issue is overwhelmingly the economy, even more so than it is for most in the state. 64% of them say that's their biggest thing. Whichever candidates can convince these folks that putting them in office will make a difference in their daily economic lives will probably win these votes. These folks may identify as Democrats, but their support is pretty much up for grabs, and their votes are still critical even as we move toward a more urbanized state.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

What reason would any White Rural Democrat vote for Perdue?

1.High unemployment
2.Nearly 30% plus of our students never graduate
3.Health Care plan for Teachers and State Employees in debt
4.Infra-structure in NC in ruins
5.DOT buried in a sea of corruption

Ranjit said...

Anonymous,

That might be the reason, we are having wild swings in the NC Presidential and Governor polls. I have a feeling that, after sarah palin's selection, they are going to vote for McCain and McCroy might have a coat tail effect. If they do so, McCain should win by 7 to 8%.

Anonymous said...

I am part of that demographic and honestly fed up with the two parties. Neither are to be trusted so my vote for Dr. Michael Munger isn't a placeholder waiting to be wooed over to a demopulican. For the same reasons stated by the first poster. However, I won't fall for the Republican's saying they will be any different cause they aren't. They may say they will be but actions always speak louder.

 
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