We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.
And I know some will say, 'yeah but you screwed up the primary there.' But the mistake we made was not anything specific to Pennsylvania, we fixed it by the next set of primaries and we were number one on the Survey USA report cards for every primary we polled after it- Indiana, North Carolina, and Oregon.
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The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
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The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the top swing state pollsters in the country last year. (11-6-08 WSJ)
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Questions or Comments?
24 comments:
Hi Tom,
What are the final rounds of polling you are conducting? MT, VA, and NC, but also OH, FL, PA, and IN?
Love the blog. Thanks for the great work.
All the ones you named plus Missouri, Georgia, and Nevada
Tom:
Thanks for the good news.
Any other interesting news from the other states you are polling?
Well, as a Mac supporter, I hope you are off the mark once again with PA but I suspect Obama will pull it out in the end as well. If RCP didn't count your PA result as part of its averages, Obama probably performed in PA just as well as the polls predicted in the primary. Final PA result: Obama 52, McCain 47. My party needs to find a way to bring back fairly wealthy suburban voters back into the fold.
when are you releasing the final rounds of polling ?
Thanks tom
also anything interesting going on in georgia or is it still mccain up 4-5
real joe: its tomorrow night
This must be why Axelrod seemed so confident on MSNBC last night, and why Obama is scheduled back in the state before Tuesday. Consider me chilled.
Previous post should have said, "not scheduled back in the state..."
Anonymous-
First, that has to be the clearest, most intelligent, most polite post I've seen anywhere on the internet by a McCain supporter. That's not snark, I'm serious.
I think what scared away those wealthy suburban voters was Bush, Palin, and some of the horrible vitrol coming from McCain/Palin rallies- not from the candidates themselves, but from the audience.
Those wealthy voters tend to be well educated. Someone being scared of Obama because they think he's really an Arab I have to feel is not well educated at all. That sort of stuff had to turn off many of those Philly suburbs. They just didn't want to be part of anything so base.
The GOP has split into two factions- the well-schooled/Wall St/Beltway conservative: these are the ones who are jumping ship and endorsing Obama. The other half are the less educated, xenophobic, religious fundies.
If the former half takes back the party, they'll recover from whatever happens on Tuesday. If the "theocrats" win control of the party, the GOP will fade into a fringe party.
Finally, I hope you're right with your prediction. I'll take Obama in PA by one vote.
All the best.
We'll see on election day; I understand the desire from democrats to try to push the narrative that it's over. My side would be doing the same thing!
You weren't just off by five points though in PA I would add. It must have been an embarrasing evening for you, being the lone pollster out there projecting not just an Obama victory, but a three-point Obama victory. It'll be a tough evening on November 4th for the GOP but you just have to tip your cap sometimes to the guy who ran the superior campaign. At least the Appalachian South, even according to this pollster, is safe.
I'm waiting for someone to point out that McCain will campaign in TN on Monday....he really is campaigining on the border of Virginia and TN to try and pump up the Southwestern portion of the state. Don't know why he wouldn't just do it in VA to avoid the speculation that Tennessee is competitive; they hate Obama in that state as he's poison in the Appalachian South.
Anonymous
"Well, as a Mac supporter, I hope you are off ..."
For the life of me, i don't know why anyone would continue supporting the "party" that has srecked our economy to the extent the repubs have done over these past 8 yrs. Surely, as Americans, we both want to see the country do well but your party took over in 2000 and began a set of wreckless tax cuts at a time when the country had finally gotten on the right track. Like anyone, I appreciate tax cuts, but what ever happened to the notion of paying for that which spend. The repubs position on taxes is like having a sex offender walking thru the neighborhood handing out candy to all the kids. that would make him a hit with all the kids but would do nothing to ensure their security.
The repubs have won election after election by promising tax cuts using borrowed money. Hopefully, some of you guys will "man up" and take a more sensible approach to both spending and taxing to cover that which we spend.
AtlantaBill
I still believe that if Bush couldn't carry PA in '04 or '00, then he won't carry it in '08. For every western PA person uncomfortable with Obama's skin color or tax plan, there's a suburban mom who doesn't like Sarah palin or McCain's dirty tactics.
McCain is pushing hard in PA because winning PA is about the only way to an electoral victory for his campaign. If you do the maps, there is virtually no way McCain can win without PA.
The only other possibility is the polls are wrong, which based on early voting seems unlikely.
There's also general consensus that Obama's ground game is better.
So, I'm still nervous about election day, anything can happen. But the early voting is favoring Obama quite heavily. This may mean McCain gets his base in on tuesday, but better to have banked votes than not.
also, I expect youth turnout to be heaviest on tuesday, but I don't expect a big blowout. the story this year is African american turnout, and possibly hispanic turnout.
What, exactly, was the mistake you corrected ifrom the PA primary?
Tom
I just wanted to leave a quick comment. I've been following the Presidential race, including the primaries. While I looked at all the polls, I always found myself coming back to PPP. Sure, a few polls have been off, but who hasn't missed a call or two. For the most part, you have been accurate. I've really enjoyed your website. Thanks again and keep up the great work.
Tom, I have to say, PPP has become a gold standard for me and any others in this election cycle. Thanks for your good work for the citizens of this country!
Seriously, i don't understand why many Obama supporters are anxious about PA.
Obama lead in every poll since( ic an't remember).
Kerry lost the popular vote by 2.5 % and he gained PA by 2%
This year Philly and suburbs will be very very big (more than for Kerry) for Obama.
If it were close in PA, wouldn't Obama and Biden be parked out there?
Right.
ttfrenzy said...
real joe: its tomorrow night
thanks for the reply
Tom,
Thanks for the blog and the extra insights you so generously share.
Can you briefly explain what went so wrong in the PPP polling in the Pennsylvania primary? If I recall, your numbers were remarkably accurate for almost all of the other primaries before and after Pennsylvania.
What was threw things off for just that one primary?
Thanks.
Don't forget Democrats out number Republicans by 600,000 voters this year. That's A LOT of people to bring over to McCain's side. I really don't see anyway McCain can do that.
I think a small fraction of those PA Dems are probably Republicans that switched voter registration to vote against Obama in the April Primary. That said, I think we'll eek out 51 or 52 percent of the vote.
ARG, take it for whatever it's worth, shows Obama at 51-45; we'll see if the tracking poll of PA still shows McCain gaining or if he stalls tonight. Still awaiting SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon to weigh in on PA.
Mason-Dixon shows Obama up 49-47, which is good news for the Obama supporters here. I like the pollster but it's looking pretty dim right now for the McCainiacs and Paliancs. M-D shows a tie in Tampa bay area, so I guess the only hope is that mason-dixon is giving too much weight to the Southeastern part of the state b/c it would be odd for anyone to win without winning Tampa.
Anonymous,
I live in Southern Appalachia - East Tennessee actually. I canvassed for Obama in western NC outside Waynesville. It was hardcore "Appalachia" - lots of trailers and run-down houses. Lots of old-school registered Democrats in Haywood County but the thinking was that they'd jump to McCain. Not the case, however. Enthusiasm for Obama was very strong there today. A 90-year old couple I talked to today was thrilled as the dickens to vote for Obama; he voted early and she's voting on Tuesday.
East TN is, of course, solidly Republican (as it has been since the Civil War). And WV and eastern KY have been bad for Obama. But I wouldn't be surprised if Obama does reasonably well in southwest VA.
- Elrod
How can anyone take you seriously? You're a DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER!!!
You were the crazy ones for releasing a poll in Ohio in June that gave the Democrats a 25 point party id edge.
How in God's name did they gain 22 points in 2 years PPP? I've asked that question of you guys quite a bit, and haven't got my answer.
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