Barack Obama 50
John McCain 49
Bob Barr 1
Barack Obama's chances in North Carolina on Tuesday really could depend on the weather.
PPP projects that he racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.
But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap.
Here is the demographic composition of folks planning to vote on election day itself:
-41% Democrats, 43% Republicans, 16% independents
-79% white, 17% black
-51% men, 49% women
Those numbers all bode more poorly for Democrats than the figures for folks who already voted.
It's going to be a dogfight. We could be headed for a recount.
Full results here.
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27 comments:
I hope it rains like a mother there...
i hope it rains crazy there! lol is that mean?
I dont believe the election day voters numbers in this poll plain and simple.
There are still 300,000 more registered D's than R's that have yet to vote. Isn't it still possible that D's are just way more motivated and election day turnout will look much like early voting in NC?
PLease NC, go to Obama! Hopefully it wille either rain cats and dog and/or Republicans in despair will not vote.
Once again, please NC, go to Obama
NC SoS says that only 41% of registered voters have cast early ballots. I doubt that another 20% have mailed in ballots so late. Either the sample is off a lil somehow or people were LYING to you about stuff.
Please explain this to me Tom, how the heck can you have Reps comprising 38% of your sample when their percentage share of the registered electorate has shrunk by more than 3% over the course of this year. And when I mean shrunk I mean consistently shrunk day after day, week after week, month after month, Rep's percentage share has been shrinking by on average .01% a day. I kid you not I have been following the daily registration numbers for five months now. Yet despite shrinking from over 34% of the electorate to now 31.9%, we are to believe they will magically overperform by a whopping 7 percent, but Dems whose numbers have been just as consistently increasing as a percentage share week after week (they currently comprise 45.7% of the registered electorate) will only overperform by 2.5%!
You're assuming 100% of registered voters are going to vote. Based on the number of people who have voted early and pegging them at 63% of the electorate you would get a turnout of a little under 4.1 million. Given that a little under 3.5 million people voted in 2004 that seems reasonable.
Either McCain supporters are inherently procrastinators, or the wide difference between those who have already voted and those who plan to vote on Tuesday is an indication of a huge enthusiasm gap. Will that gap really necessarily reverse itself on election day?
Here's a question Tom: What are the demographics of those who have already voted? Seriously, Dems outnumber Reps amongst early voters by 21%. I'd really like to see your demo information about the already voted, especially Indies and Dems. Unless a bunch of Dixicrats voted or a bunch of committed Mccain indies voted early, I just don't see this as close PPP has pegged it.
Who's next?
Perhaps Tom you are getting a lot of Indies identifying themselves as Reps, but I really do not see Reps making up nearly 40% of the voting electorate this year. The registration trends (and that is what I'm talking about, not the topline numbers, but the movement over the past year), indicate that Reps simply will not make up that large a percentage of voters at the polls in NC.
The good news: BO at 50%. He just needs one more vote. ;-)
D@&m!!
I've been crunching numbers based on polls and BOE stats, and this was basically my "worst case win" scenario.
Oh well, a win is a win. I still think the GOTV on Obama's side is probably better, and the margin will be larger. I also wonder if you may have undersampled Obama Early Voters somehow, just based on the NCBOE figs, as you point out. Maybe they're all out volunteering for GOTV? (heh. I'm going to tell myself that, anyway.)
Rather than hoping for low turnout, I'm going to hope - and work - for our voters to turnout. Everyone else can stay home, tho, if they want.
Again according to the NC voter registration statistics...you oversample Dems by 3% and Reps by 9% and undersample Indys by 9% when adjusting for that it is about a 4% race...
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?id=41
Laura - I agree. The huge advantages Obama has built up in early voting should be taken by the McCain folks as a very ominous sign.
Either because of enthusiasm or because of superior GOTV efforts, it would seem the Obama folks may very well have a large edge with their people going to the polls this time.
The key will obviously be turnout on Tuesday. If we get another 1.5 million voters (the 65% turnout scenario) Obama should be fine. If we get 1.8 million (the 70% scenario) it will really be tight. It's hard for me to believe turnout will be higher than that - even 65% would near record turnout.
To put it another way - if McCain is really winning by 14% on election day, he'll need 1.8 million total voters on Tuesday, which puts us at 70% turnout. The 1.6 million that Tom hypothesizes would still leave him around 25 thousand votes short.
Don't forget, as great a job as PPP did in the primary, Obama still outperformed the poll. It could well happen again. My gut feeling is that we'll get about 1.5 million voters tomorrow, which, using the 14% McCain edge would result in a 40,000 vote Obama victory.
Among Democratic early voters, the turnout is disproportionately female and minority. Thus, Dem. Obama supporters are more likely to have voted early, and Dems voitng on Tuesday are more likely to support McCain.
By the way, how many respondents are in the final N.C. sample? The footer on the .pdf Report says "October 21-23 - Survey of 1231 Virginia voters."
I hope that darn Bob Bar doesn't take votes away from McCain.
Demographic Data in Early Vote compared to the in the PPP poll and the required Exit Poll demographics to meet Polling model.
PPP Poll has a typical demographic profile:
18... 0.16
30... 0.28
46... 0.38
65... 0.18
Early vote skews older and retired:
18 …. 0.145
30 …. 0.234
46 …. 0.404
65 …. 0.216
In order for 37% of the remain electorate to achieve the poll model, Election Day Exit demographics will have to show the following makeup.
18 …. 18.6%
30 …. 35.8%
46 …. 33.9%
65 …. 11.9%
This seems achievable for late voting youth, but the 65+ demo seems exceptionally low. The 46 and 65 cohort break McCain. So the age cohort solution argues for a McCain undercount in the predicted "yet to vote" population.
Conversely, the party affilitation data undercounts the Obama cohort in the "yet to vote". So we are perhaps dancing around the MOE in sub-groups.
andrew h: Or less than 40% of people plan to vote on Election Day.
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