Saturday, November 1, 2008

More Mediocre Dole Campaign

When I got home tonight I had a mailer about 'liberal Kay Hagan: giving illegal immigrants our jobs.'

I am a 25 year old registered Democrat in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. I thought the Republicans were supposed to be good at micro targeting?


Anonymous said...

Hey Tom, any thoughts on Mason-Dixon's Virginia poll. 47-44 for the O-Man sounds good for him but the rest of the story gives my man a fighting chance. Any thoughts on this passage?

"The profile of undecided voters suggests that some are potentially opposed to Obama....Among undecided voters this year, 93 percent are white and 75 percent live outside Northern Virginia, where Obama has a substantial lead."

Obama is obviously the favorite to take this state at this point but as a Mac supporter, I'll take these Mason-Dixon numbers, given the racial/geographic composition of the undecided voters. Care to drop a hint as to whether your numbers show something significantly different?

Tom Jensen said...

Good question, I'm going to write a post on it.

Matt said...

You're only 25, Tom? Makes your work here even more impressive.

William said...

I think there's some sort of Direct Mail Distortion Field around Chapel Hill, since as an 18-year-old registered Democrat who just happens to be a UNC student I'm getting *tons* of Republican mail.

thisniss said...

ditto on the flyer, and the stupid targeting. Also, we're on the "do not mail" list. Only the Republicans disrespect that.

Then again, I was once sent a photo and solicitation letter from "George and Laura." I never could figure that one out, either. I would think the Repubs would figure a dollar spent in CH = a dollar wasted somewhere else. The Kerry margin in Orange County was nearly 35%.

In other local news, I haven't seen the final vote totals, but I think Orange County has already cast about 70% as many votes as it did in the last Presidential election, and it was the 9th largest vote providing county in the state in that cycle.

Kevin said...

Tom, NC GOP targeting may very well suck. I'm also a 20some registered Democrat in a college-dominated neighborhood, voted in Dem primary and everything.

I got the Kay Hagan "Godless American" crap in a mailer weeks ago, long before the TV ads. I also receive NC GOP mailers telling me how Obama is secretly a radical terrorist-sympathizing, Hollywood, gang-murder-loving, American-hating socialist, etc., etc.

Lately I've had anti-Hagan or Obama mailers almost daily. Not only bad targeting, isn't there a point of diminishing returns? If the first 5 conspiracy theories aren't persuasive, how will 10 more pitches help?

Would like to know more.

The Notorious A.R.G. said...

They very well may be sending them out addresses to male Democrats across the state, regardless of age, looking for that ol' boy dixiecrat style Democratic vote.

I didn't get one (live in Durham County) and I fall into that category, so it may just be an Orange County thing.

ozzie said...

I was working on a Democratic phone bank in Minnesota yesterday. When I got home, I found out the the Republican party had called and left a message on my answering machine while I was out volunteering for the Democrats.

I have also gotten many Republican direct mail smear flyers which go directly into the recycling bin. Republican micro-targeting isn't any more accurate in Minnesota. If this is the Republican plan for GOTV, they are doomed.

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