Sunday, November 2, 2008

Pennsylvania Results

Barack Obama 53
John McCain 45

Barack Obama's lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided.

Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.

Obama is trailing McCain only 50-48 among white voters. In a state with a black population over 10% that level of competitiveness is more than enough to give him a strong overall lead when you factor in his 90% + support from African American voters.

Obama is winning in every age demographic except senior citizens and a large amount of his lead is coming from a remarkable 68-30 performance with voters under 30.

In Pennsylvania down ballot races Republican Tom Corbett leads 52-35 for Attorney General, holding Democratic challenger John Morganelli to 59% even among voters within his own party. For Treasurer Democrat Rob McCord leads 46-38 and for Auditor General Democrat Jack Wagner leads 49-35.

Full results here.

24 comments:

Scott said...

We'll take it.

Jeremy said...

Yesssssssssssss!

Anonymous said...

decent...keep 'em coming. Are any more coming out tonight?

andy said...

hah!
my prediction was right on the money :)

Anonymous said...

I will take it :)
What is next?

Chuck said...

Comfortably over 50%... thus any stealing will have to be huge in order to justify a surprise on Tues. night.

drew said...

Looks good.

jr1886 said...

PA looking good... I'd like to see an Obama + 4 in North Carolina. here hoping

KMartDad said...

Thanks for the numbers.

Something I don't understand, and I've seen it in a number of polls. If Obama is winning at least as many Rs as he's losing Ds to Mac, and if he is winning so decisively among Indies (by 18 pts in this poll), how can his overall lead be this narrow (7 pts)--not that I'm complaining. I think this looks pretty reasonable.

Anonymous said...

PPP's #s combined with the final Gallup #s today are giving me a little bit of relief from the incredible tension I've been feeling.
As long as there's no major shenanigans, I'm feeling more confident of a BO victory. Otherwise, I may have to revisit some of Bill Maher's "Exit Strategy" locations! lol

Anonymous said...

I hope your PA poll is better than your PA poll in the primary.

That was an epic fail. You had Obama winning by +3.

I think the mason dixon numbers with Obama +4 with the large white undecideds feels more right.

This state was never in the double digits for Obama.

Anonymous said...

Kmartdad:

There aren't many independents in Pennsylvania. Only 7% in this sample.

Among just Democrats/Republicans, Obama takes a 7.5% lead from the large Democratic party advantage in PA (keep in mind that this poll has the split at 51-42, when its officially 51-37.) Because there aren't many independents, he only adds 1.2% to his margin among them.

KMartDad said...

I see. Thanks for the explanation.

Anonymous said...

Looks good.

andy said...

@ Anonymous said...

I hope your PA poll is better than your PA poll in the primary.

Well either PPP, Survey USA, Rasmussen and the Morning Call tracking poll are right(read: the consensus)... OR Mason-Dixon is right. We will know in less than 48 hours.

Andrew H said...

Biden going to be with some Phillies player tomorow night. I hope that doesn't backfire on us. If we have good margin in SE PA, then there's nothing to sweat in PA for us.

dvogel001 said...

I was curious, according to the PA registrations statistics you underrepresent Independents and overrepresent Republicans by 5% in addition underrepresenting 18-29 year olds by 3% and overrepresenting over 65 year olds by 2%

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/elections/cwp/view.asp?a=1310&q=446974&electionsNav=|

Any comments...

phillydem said...

I live in PA, spent 30+ years working in Phila and now have returned to western Pennsylvania. There are a couple things you should know about this state. First, Dems here in the western part of the state tend to be socially conservative/ traditional and fiscally liberal. That is why Bob Casey, Jason Altmire and Jack Wagner win overwhelmingly here. The second thing is these Dems have been voting Republican for awhile now but they don't change their registration to reflect that.

In the eastern part of the state, especially the SE, the situation is reversed. There are many registered socially liberal and fiscally responsible Republicans in the Phila collar counties who have been voting increasingly Democratic. I suspect more have changed their registrations to Dem than in the west, but there are still plenty who have not. That, to me, accounts for the offsetting numbers of Rs for Obama and Ds for McCain.

Second, if Obama gets 53% of the vote, that is a big win in PA. Rendell had a blowout in 2006 and he got 59%. IIRC, Bob Barr is on the ballot here and he could well siphon votes in central and northern PA away from McCain.

Last, Rendell has an excellent GOTV operation in the SE and Phila is still a pretty good Dem machine city. Look for an Obama margin approaching 450-500k out of Phila.

And about the SUSA and Rasmussen polls. The SUSA poll had 16% of AA vote going to McCain. I understand Rasmussen had a similar result. M-D
while close, is a 2 pt improvement for Obama.

phillydem said...

Let me just add about the "Bradley effect" thing. AA politicians have run statewide; it's not something new and strange. In 2006 Lynn Swann ran for governor and lost because he was a bad candidate with no ideas and up against the best pol in the state not because of his race. 40% of Pennsylvanians had no trouble voting for him. Dwayne Woodruff (former Steeler DB), who ran for judge, was the highest vote getter of all the judicial candidates. Dwight Evans ran for governor about 15 or so years ago in a crowed Dem primary and shocked observers by nearly becoming the nominee. And, of course in Phila, Pgh and Harrisburg, AA policitians are old news.

Anonymous said...

We are no longer a Republic.

We are now a Mobocracy.

When the dollar is worthless it won't matter if you can withdraw it from your bank or not.

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