Arlen Specter 40
Chris Matthews 27
A look at a potential 2010 match up for US Senate between MSNBC host Chris Matthews and long time Republican incumbent Arlen Specter brings good news for both candidates.
The good news for Specter:
-He's winning. It's always better to be winning than losing.
-30% of Democrats say they would support him in such a contest.
-Matthews lead him only 31-25 among black voters.
The good news for Matthews:
-People are at least open to the possibility of voting for him, hence Specter's standing well below 50%, usually not good news for an incumbent.
-There's an indication that his celebrity could help bring him some crossover support. Specter is carrying only 50% of the Republican vote (that could also be people who would like to see him taken out in the primary sitting on their hands.)
-Matthews has a double digit lead with voters under 30. His candidacy could result in young, Democratic leaning voters being more engaged in a midterm election than they usually are.
The bottom line?
Specter would certainly start out favored, but a Matthews candidacy is by no means a non starter. He would have a fighting chance with a strong campaign.
Full results here.