Monday, November 3, 2008

Nevada Results

Barack Obama 51
John McCain 47

It appears Barack Obama is set to win at least a trio of Mountain West states that went Republican in 2004. Along with Colorado and New Mexico he can probably add Nevada to the list.

In fact you can almost put Obama's likely Nevada victory in past tense. 71% of the state's likely voters say they have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a much broader 57-43 lead. McCain's bringing the race to within four points is predicated on winning election day voters by a margin of 57-38.

Obama is not doing great with white voters in the state. He trails 54-44. But his dominating leads with Hispanics (61-36) and African Americans (94-4) propel his overall lead.

He's up 53-40 with independents and has a 56-41 edge with those voters under 30.

Full results here.

13 comments:

A.J said...

Great news!

Anonymous said...

If you are right that he's headed to victory in those three mountain states. He only has to win all the kerry states, Iowa, and another state with at least 13 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia or Florida will do :)

I like what I heard on MSNBC. There is no path to a McCain victory without getting 3 of these 4 states: Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

Even then it's not a guarantee. If Obama locks up 1 of these states, he's almost certainly headed to victory because no Republican analyst is saying they think they'll win Colorado, Iowa or New Mexico.

nonn said...

ZING !!

nonn said...

actualy, with Kerry States, IA and NM locked he needs 6, though 5 (Nevada) would send it to the new house elected...

Lance S said...

Colorado wins it, Nevada starts building the margin.

(Kerry + IA + CO + NM = 273).

Anonymous said...

Oh I meant Kerry - Pennsylvania.

I just don't see McCain winning without Pennsylvania, and my hunch is that he can't win without virginia.

I don't see a path to victory for McCain if Ohio or Florida is declared for Obama.

Chuck Todd said we should know the results in virginia very quickly. So we should have a good idea how the election is shaping up pretty early in the evening. I'm west coast so that's 5 o'clock or so for me.

Ben said...

Are there any other states left?

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