I got quite a vociferous e-mail today saying the only reason our Colorado polling was showing Michael Bennet and Bill Ritter in such bad shape was that we had our party weighting all wrong.
We don't weight for party- we weight for fixed demographics like gender, race, and age and let the party ID fall where it may- because unlike those other things people can change their party.
It was actually pretty ironic to get an e-mail from a Democrat about this because last year every time we put out a Colorado poll it was the Republicans complaining about the very same thing.
Given that both the 2008 exit poll and the state's registration statistics show a 1 point advantage for Republicans, the 3 point advantage for them we found in this poll seems perfectly reasonable in this political climate.
Anyway this person asked me to recalculate our results using the state's registration breakdown of 35% Republicans, 34% Democrats, and 31% other.
Here's what you get using those numbers. Bennet's approval rating is 33/35 rather than 31/38 and he trails Bob Beauprez 41-39 instead of 42-39. Ritter's approval rating is 41/45 rather than 40/45 and he trails Scott McInnis 45-38 instead of 46-38.
In other words changing the party id breakdown helps the Democrats, but only by a very small amount. Bennet and Ritter aren't doing poorly in our poll because of the party breakdown, they're doing poorly because a) Republicans disapprove of them more strongly than Democrats approve of them and b) Republicans are more committed at this very early stage to voting for Beauprez and McInnis than Democrats are to supporting Bennet and Ritter.
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4 comments:
I think your party ID is fine.
How about polling Indiana, Montana or North Dakota now ?
The raving lunatics at Kos should keep their hate-filled emails to themselves.
1. Arkansas Us Senate 2010 Analysis
-DC Monthly Political View -August 20, 2009 – Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele’s instructions today to the State GOP about strategies to deal with Independent US Senate office seeker Trevor Drown have many local republicans unhappy. Steele, was in Little Rock today, meeting with Doyle Webb and other members of party leadership. First item on the agenda: securing the US Senate seat that is held by democrat Blanche Lincoln. Polls show Lincoln, who is running for her third term has little to no support across all categories. Normally this would appear to provide the GOP the ability to pick up a senate seat but for few problems. There is a major negative view across the state for the republicans. The current 5 to 8 possible candidates include everyone from a ultra-conservative riding Huckabee’s coattails to a clueless retired Army Colonel. In between a tea party boat builder, a FEDex driver/real estate investor and a few other odds and ends. Add to their problems continuous racist comments and plantation owner language and you have a image problem. Couple this with the concern the state party is in the red, and may be in financial trouble with a net loss of $108,000 in the last 12 months
Another factor will be the nominal entry of a Green Party member. In the past three Federal elections The Greens have done something Republican’s have yet to do. Provide a candidate to run against the incumbent. This continues to be a problem statewide as republicans fail to recruit anyone at various state level and higher offices to run including taking in the very popular Governor Beebe. This poor leadership attitude may result in no republicans being allowed on the 2012 ballot without gathering from 2,000 to 10,000 signatures themselves.
Speaking of signatures, according to inside sources present at the meeting earlier today, Michael Steele named former Green Beret, the number one threat to the Republican Party in Arkansas. He has the looks, brains, leadership style and the support of the people in Arkansas. A grassroots movement, already underway has worried many GOP leaders since it is expected he will easily get the required 10,000 signatures by May 2010. When it was discovered members of party leadership had tried to recruit Drown and he turned him down, heads were shaking and many at the meeting heard Steele mumble that was “bad, very bad.” Things got a little heated when it was further discovered once he had turned them done, certain members of the party who also hold statewide office combined their efforts with a local blogger to discredit Drown.
One staffer from the GOP D.C. office said, this is what is wrong with you people. You still think this is the 19th century. You need to ignore, him, never mention his name never acknowledge him. If you recognize his existence you elevate him to our level. The time to take him out will be only if he gets the signatures next May.
There were a few moderate republicans not happy with how the state party has handled the Drown affair. Targeting a veteran of the Global War on terror did not sit well with them. Internally, within the party support is already waning and infighting increases daily due to the GOP’s silent nod of approval being given to Curtis Coleman.
This next election could be the start of a rising force in this country, the Independent. Arkansas appears to be one of the battleground states. When you look at the numbers and realize only 55,000 registered voters are democrats, 45,000 republicans and the remaining 1.6 million are registered as optional or independents, political strategists know it is time to worry. Consequently, we are predicting that Trevor Drown looks like the strongest contender at this point.
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