Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Lincoln basically knotted up with GOP potentials

Gilbert Baker is viewed favorably by 7% of voters in Arkansas. For Curtis Coleman it's 6% and Tom Cotton it's 4%.

The immediate conclusion from those numbers would logically be that Republicans have no chance of beating Blanche Lincoln for reelection in Arkansas. But in a state where the President has the support of less than 30% of the electorate on health care anything's possible right now and despite their virtually nonexistent name recognition Baker, Coleman, and Cotton are all in statistical ties with Lincoln in potential head to head contests.

Lincoln polls at 40% against all three of the Republicans. Baker and Coleman lead her with 42 and 41% respectively, while Cotton trails with 39%.

The numbers of course are more a reflection on Lincoln's standing than that of the Republicans. Her approval rating is now 36%, with 44% of voters in the state disapproving of the job she's doing. That's a 13 point downward shift in her net approval rating, from 45/40 when we measured it in March. That largely tracks the 18 point decline in the President's popularity over that time.

Lincoln's approval rating is 14% with Republicans and she only gets 9% of the GOP vote in the head to head contests, that's no surprise. Her bigger problems are with Democrats and independents.

Among all Democrats her approval is a relatively weak 62%. But among conservative Democrats it's just 45%. While liberal unrest about her actions in Washington has perhaps received more attention her approval with them is 24 points higher, at 69%. Matched against the Republicans Lincoln averages just a 57-25 advantage with the conservative wing of her party, a standing she'll probably need to improve on before next November.

Although the dissatisfaction of liberals within her party may not be as a big of a numerical concern for Lincoln as the conservatives, there are some issues there as well. Her approval rating among voters who think that Obama is doing a good job is just 63% with 21% disapproving and 16% unsure. That failure to win over many of Obama's proponents is an indication that the President's unpopularity in the state can't be held completely responsible for Lincoln's difficulties. She does nevertheless win nearly 80% in the head to heads with the Republicans because she's clearly a more acceptable choice for those voters than the alternative but then the concern in an off year election becomes whether those folks even show up if they're not enthusiastic about casting a vote for Lincoln.

If Lincoln has perhaps seemed indecisive at times you can see why when she has it coming at her from both ends of her party.

Arkansas has the most conservative independents of any state we've polled in this year and it shows in Lincoln's numbers with that group. Just 27% of them approve of her job performance to 51% disapproving. She has a 21 point deficit in the horse race with that group against Baker and Coleman and a 16 point disadvantage against Cotton.

So what's the bottom line here? Clearly Lincoln could be beaten, but there are several reasons why she might survive too. The first is that none of her potential Republican opponents have shown the ability yet to raise the money to run a strong campaign. Whoever emerges as her opponent is also going to need to be able to keep their foot out of their mouth, something that's been a problem for some potential foes. The second is that Democrats nationally are in a recession right now and that goes a long way toward explaining these numbers. But if the economy starts turning around by this time next year and the folks in power get the credit, all of their folks running for reelection will get lifted up, including Lincoln. Republicans have an opportunity here but it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of it.

Full results here

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow, I suspected so much more from your firm, I had heard that you were a true agent of truth. You totally ignored any unnamed independent candidate or a Green Party candidate question. And then it goes down hill. The rest of your poll and the questions you didn't ask makes this poll as weak as pre-sweetended kool-aid. How any one considers your firm credible is beyond me.

Stephanie said...

The race is very early. Once the Republican candidate gets out and starts campaigning against Barack Lincoln, I think name recognition will NOT be a problem anymore. For virtual nobodies to be in a statistical tie with her this early out and this far from the election is NOT a good sign for Barack Lincoln.

Anonymous said...

Stephanie,

I agree and Tom is already crying about your comment on Twitter.

Tom, what's wrong with what she said? Isn't Obama the reincarnation of Lincoln after all?

Sean said...

Who the heck is Barack Lincoln?

Anonymous said...

Good lord, did you guys go to the Tolbert school of credibility. No wonder you guys are getting a bad reputation. Just don't follow his direction and become the focus of an investigation by the Feds for linking fake campaign Twitter accounts to a bogus paypal account. Bye, Bye, CPA license and hello Club Fed!

Anonymous said...

Nice attempt to salvage some face saving for Blanche, but if she's only polling at 40% against 3 relative unknowns it's bad news (or good news depending on your stance).

William said...

Tom, I am a fellow Arkansan who follows your poll. I am now concerned about the credibility of your poll, and will now post this nationally. Arkansas has two other parties that will be seeking the Senate position in Arkansas. The Green is one and a Independent named Drown. Although my party (Green) has not captured much attention to this point the Independent has received national attention including interviews on radio talkshows (natioanlly syndicated) and written media. His name has generated more buzz in Arkansas and the national public then any name you placed on your poll. I did notice that on one of your previous articles that he had a lot of supporters responding on your blog. I also noticed that when this happened you Tweeted to an AR GOP member Tolbertreport.com calling his supporters spamers. This appears to make you biased and non credible. I hope you will correct your mistake. Other than that blunder you do good work. Thanks, William

18Zulu said...

Geez how bad is it when the Trevor Drown spammers (aka the Drownies) can't even sack up "Teams" style and use the man's name - calling him the "Independent."

These Drownies even make up spoof Twitter accounts of sitting elected officials to drive people to their fake Paypal page.

The Teams are FAIL!

It's now time to open the Trevor Drown picture book so you can see the real face of 18F.

Click my name.

18Zulu said...

Geez ... how FAIL are The Teams that the Drownie's can't even mention Trevor Drown's full name.

It looks like CornFedGal and the Teamster will have to start linking back to the FAIL PayPal page at their website.

Green Beret, my arse.

Click my name to see the real Trevor Drown.

Arkansas Voter said...

18Zulu...I've seen a few of your post on a blog or two. I've not seen you write anything credible. I'm taking it your a Drown hater or something. Clearly, I can trace out these "Drownies" as well. However, you're not posting anything worthwhile and frankly it's quite childish. If anything, you're bringing more attention to Drown than not and for that, I'm sure the "Drownies" appreciate it.

Now.. onto the poll. I will have to agree with some of the postings in here. I think there are some credible "independent" canidates but you did not poll on any of those. It appears this blog likes the Duopoly system, unfortunately, I don't agree. The duopolies only push their own agendas and appear to care less for the people they represent.

I do agree, though, I think Blanch is going to be hurting at the polls this next election. If the GOP puts a half decent canidate in the race, Lincoln's reign is over...

Richard said...

18Zulu,
Looks like Trevor Drown has failed much less than both the GOP and the DEM's. Who has all the internal strife. Hmmmmm Both parties self destructing. It is laughable to sit back and watch how much Trevor Drown is making both of you squirm. It is however sad that you make fun of the military by using 18Z. Anyone with a military background knows that a 18Z would never give his speciality, just as Trevor Drown has never given his. I enjoy the prods cause it just sends more vets and non career politicans unlike your self our way. Keep up the good work, and thanks for the help!! We will soon let you drink from the tap.

 
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