With November fast approaching three out of four of our monthly state polls are tied up in Virginia, New Jersey, and North Carolina but next week brings a break in that schedule and the opportunity to poll somewhere else: so what should we do?
As always our top priority is polling races for Senator and Governor that are up next year and that might be more competitive than the conventional wisdom suggests- in other words places that are under polled. We're also open to doing surveys in places where there is plenty of data but where there could potentially be a different twist- for instance including Richard Blumenthal alongside Chris Dodd in Connecticut or something along those lines.
So have at it- we'll take your suggestions the next couple days, choose some finalists, and put up the poll on the blog for you to vote over the weekend.
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17 comments:
Pennsylvania could use a full workup. We have an open seat for Governor, and of course the Democratic Senate primary.
I really want to hear the news from Alaska or Indiana. Both states were very interesting last election, and I'd love to see if the red-to-blue trend is continuing there.
Arizona would definitely be interesting. While Rasmussen has been doing approval ratings for Jan Brewer there have been no head-to-head match-ups between her and likely opponent Attorney General Terry Goddard. Plus Brewer's approval ratings among Republicans can give us a hint on how vulnerable she is to a primary challenge.
Another good thing about an Arizona poll is it would let us test the conventional wisdom that if McCain weren't the Republican nominee last year the state would have been a swing state. Comparing Obama's approval rating in the state to the nation could give us an early sign of how much more Republican Arizona is to the nation. (To my knowledge no public poll, not even Rasmussen, has polled Obama's approval ratings since he was sworn in). This is also another state where a Romney-Obama or Palin- Obama match-up would be interesting to see how well liked/ disliked both Republicans are in the state.
Finally, the Senate race is under-polled. Even if McCain's looking good right now it's worth checking how much Arizonans, both in the primary and in the general election, want him to have another term.
Colorado.
And don't just test Bennett, he may not win the primary.
Illinois. There hasn't been a poll done since your last poll in April. Kirk's in. Lets see how he does against Giannoulias and other potentials.
I would like to see some more California polling. Cornyn seems rather bullish on taking down Barbara Boxer, and other than that Rasmussen poll, there's really nothing else to go on. Some info on the governor's race in California would be nice too.
Also, an Indiana poll would be great. Like North Carolina, Obama won it by a thin margin, and it would be informative to see how his approval is holding up there.
Colorado again. It's been a while. Seeing how Bennet holds up against Beauprez and Frazier and how Bill Ritter is holding up against McInnis and Penry.
Also see how Obama is doing and maybe check out how Romney is fairing.
I think that Texas would be an interesting state to poll, as would Florida, and potentially California.
And of course....the standard Obama/Palin approval ratings would be greatly appreciated.
Agree with TTB, Alaska could include a Palin-Begich matchup.
I would add Montana as a third state to that list though. It was very close, the congressman is running for a fifth term, but has gotten a free pass for at least 3 of his last 4 elections, so I'd love to see reelect numbers (or horserace numbers vs. the two Dem candidates).
I don't think Indiana can be polled by PPP because, if I remember correctly, it doesn't permit IVR polling. Tom, is this true?
I would like to see Connecticut's Governor and Senate races polled. It is true that the Senate race there has been polled frequently. However, I don't think the Governor's race has been polled much. It has seen a lot of movement over the last few weeks. Republican Governor Jodi Rell won't say whether or not she's running for reelection until the budget is passed. This has caused the Republican Lieutenant Governor to say he will run for the position if Rell doesn't. Last week, State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney declined to run for Congress and he hasn't declined to run for governor. A prominent State House Republican has opened an exploratory committee for a statewide position. The Democrats have the Secretary of State, the mayor of Stamford, the former Speaker of the State House, and a long serving State Senator running for governor.
Florida's Senate race. I would love to know if Mike Huckabee's endorsement of Rubio has made a dent in Charlie Crist's lead in the Republican primary voters' minds.
Alaska? How about we poll some states that are relevant for 2010?
Rubio-Crist or Hutchinson-Perry.
You guys just love Palin polls?
Look at it this way, if Tom's theory is wrong (and I suspect it is) about Virginia, then Obama has already lost the state to her and every other Republican. For goodness sakes, nearly half the state believes that he's a liar. That's good news for those of us who hate him on a personal level.
Tom, you haven't addressed the argument that the percentage of Republicans haven't increased in the state of Virginia.
Tom,
How are the birther numbers in North carolina? Are they anywhere near where they are in Virginia?
If so, then that 7-point lead from Obama from a month ago in your state is probably a 5-point deficit. I think your state is reverting back somewhat to where it was in 2004 and 2006. Good job by the birthers. Though I disagree with them, they have been extremely effective.
There are a lot of good suggestions on this list, but I've got one more. There has been talk that Gov. Hoeven of North Dakota might challenge Sen. Dorgan. I've only seen two polls on this potantial match-up of popular incumbents, and they completely contradict each other. Seems like a good excuse for a poll to me.
North Dakota or Pennsylvania
Toomey's support of Sotomayor is going to cost him dearly with the base
IMHO, Alaska could become a swing state in 2012. The fact is, polls showed it within Obama's reach before McCain chose Palin.
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