Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Plurality Disapproval for Obama in NC

For the first time since he took office Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina has entered negative territory. 46% of voters in the state give him good marks while 47% now disapprove of his job performance.

From a high of 54% in April Obama's approval has dropped to 51% in May, 50% in June, 49% in July, and now 46% in August.

The unpopularity of his health care plan with the state's voters may be contributing to his downward decline. Only 39% of voters in the state say they support it, while 50% are opposed. Obama's problem on that front is that Republicans are more united in their opposition to it than Democrats are in their support of it. 88% of GOP voters say they're against while just 65% of Democrats express favor.

Adding a twist to this month's look at Obama's popularity, we also asked voters to rate his performance so far on a scale of 1 to 9. Giving a good sense of how polarized the state is when it comes to Obama, nearly half of respondents gave him either the highest or lowest grade possible with 22% giving him 9's, the best, and 27% giving him 1's, the worst. Only 9% gave him the median grade. His overall average came out to 4.97.

Lest there was any doubt he has lost his star with African American voters, 80% gave him an 8 or a 9.

More voters now disapprove than approve of Obama in every section of the state with the exception of the Triangle, where his 58/36 approval spread props up his overall numbers.

Full results here


Anonymous said...

Tell me, why should I trust your polling more so than say Gallup's?

Your NC average from January-June gives President Obama a +15 (54/39) overall approval rating (+11 when not including your first poll which took a survey of President-elect Obama).

Meanwhile Gallup's January to June Average is 60/29.

60/29 or 52/41 (or 54/39).

That's HUGE difference. Both you and Gallup use RV models so the only real difference is the mode of interviewing (live vs. IVR).

What's the point of scientific polling when the results are so out of whack from each other?

I mean, I guess I should just average them out and get 56/35?

Tom Jensen said...

I think a lot of the Gallup numbers strain credulity- a 61% approval rating in Kentucky? 53% in Oklahoma? There's just no way. I'm not sure what is responsible for them finding those kinds of numbers but I don't believe them either.

Our approval numbers in NC and elsewhere have reflected people who voted for Obama continuing to like him, and most who did not vote for him disapproving of him. To me that intuitively makes sense. What has he done that would make folks who didn't vote for him approve of his job performance now? That's not a criticism but just the reality of governing a highly polarized country.

You're welcome to split the difference but I think our approval numbers are more realistic across the board.

Stephen C. Rose said...

I think asking questions about one's "birther" opinion is demeaning to a polling organization. It feeds the legitimacy of an unworthy smear.

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