Tuesday, January 12, 2010

House Incumbents and Health Care

Congressman

Opponent

Lead w/HC supporters

Deficit w/HC opponents

Snyder

Griffin

86-3 (83)

73-14 (59)

Kissell

Johnson

88-5 (83)

69-24 (45)

Herseth

Nelson

81-6 (75)

57-27 (30)


We're going to be polling a lot more districts of Democratic House incumbents but it's hard to look at this chart based on the three where we've gone so far and not think voting against health care was the best vote politically in tough districts.

Larry Kissell and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, despite their votes against the health care bill, have very similar numbers with health care supporters to Vic Snyder, who supported the bill.

Herseth Sandin and Kissell have much better numbers than Snyder with people who opposed the bill though and because of that they're doing much better against their GOP opponents for this year than he is.

In our two party system there's just not really anywhere for voters on the left unhappy with their representatives for voting against health care to go. If they think the Democratic Party feels like they can take them for granted, well, the polling suggests that's the case. I'm not making a value judgment on that one way or the other but that's what the numbers are telling us.

Our next House district poll will be somewhere a Democrat in a tough district voted for the bill to see if their numbers fit this trend.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is the data in this correct? It doesn't seem to support your words.

Anonymous said...

No, No, No, No, NO!

There's absolutely NO reason to believe that the 4 liberals from the 9th District with nothing better to do than blog about defeating Larry Kissell for his excellent representation in the 8th are wrong.

After all, they've been trying for years, but 2010 is finally the one.

Anonymous said...

Tom,
MD-1 with Kratovil would be good to poll.

Thanks,
Pat H.

Anonymous said...

Ike Skelton MO

long time Dem

voted health care and cap and trade

Anonymous said...

The thing of it with a lot of activists is they aren't willing to take Kissell at his word. No one questions Kucinich when HE votes against the bill -- but when Kissell votes against it based upon his announced opposition, months ago, to any Medicare cuts, people think it is a plot ...

Shawn said...

Poll Skelton and Boucher. Two Dems who voted for cap-n-trade, and have not faced a real opponent in a long time. I think both are ripe for defeat with a good campaign.

Christian Liberty said...

3 Republicans closing in on Stephanie Herseth Sandlin

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/south_dakota/election_2010_south_dakota_house_of_representatives

 
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