John Spratt is facing his toughest reelection in years this fall, but he's in better shape than some of his Democratic colleagues in conservative leaning Congressional districts. Here's the bad news and the good news for Spratt from our new poll of SC-5:
The Bad News:
-The Democratic brand in Spratt's district is pretty poor right now. 55% of voters disapprove of Congressional Democrats to just 37% who think they're doing a good job. 48% of them think Congressional Democrats are too liberal. Only 33% support the Democratic health care plan with 51% opposed. And the President's approval rating is in negative territory at 46/49.
-Spratt's approval rating is in slightly negative territory with 41% of his constituents expressing support for the job he's doing and 42% unhappy. Predictably Democrats like him and Republicans don't, but by a 47/38 margin he's also under water with independents.
The Good News:
-47% of Spratt's constituents think that he's ideologically 'about right' compared to 34% who think he's too liberal. That means a significant percentage of his constituents perceive Spratt differently than they do Congressional Democrats as a whole rather than lumping him in as 'just another one of them.'
-Congressional Republicans are even more unpopular within the district than the Democrats are with only 27% of voters approving of the job they're doing to 58% who convey disapproval.
What does it all add up to? Spratt leads potential Republican opponents Mick Mulvaney and Albert Spencer by margins of 46-39 and 46-37 respectively. Spratt is actually winning more of the Republican vote than either of the GOP candidates is of the Democratic vote, an unusual trend in the south where many voters registered as Democrats frequently vote for Republicans at the federal level. That's an indication that Spratt is still in pretty strong standing with conservative Democrats and that his health care vote hasn't ended his ability to win over some of the more moderate GOP voters.
At the same time he does trail both Republican hopefuls with independent voters by 4-9 points. Those numbers don't seem so bad when you consider that Barack Obama's approval rating is a miserable 27/64 spread with independents in the district though. Spratt continues to earn a lot of support from voters not enamored with the President.
Spratt's going to have to fight a lot harder than usual to keep his seat this fall but early indications are that 28 years of service aren't going to get done in by his health care vote.
Full results here
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18 comments:
Spratt made it on our list of 50 MUST GO congressmen because of his votes for stimulus (where are the jobs?), cap & trade (do the people in the 5th district really want their electricity bills to "skyrocket?"), and obamacare (reconcile what?). It is way too early to conclude that Spratt is going to get another 2 years. He will have to answer to these 3 votes from now until November. More at www.mmxflex.com
Any incumbent under 50% should be considered vulnerable. His opponents have small name ID and have nowhere to go but up.
John Spratt could resist no fat,
His voting record is clear.
SC-5 voters have had enough
And will kick him the rear.
Buh-bye John Spratt.
Also, the GOP is already targeting him.
http://www.wltx.com/news/story.aspx?storyid=83283&catid=2
A bonus that should not be underestimated is that if the crosstabs were to be true (and I know, margin of error is larger with subgroups, blah, but it is also smaller with lopsided answers as in this case), then there are more Obama voters who think he voted against Health Care than McCain voters who do.
In a competitive campaign, both campaigns would highlight the Healthcare vote... and while the McCain low-attention voters would be pissed off, they're outnumbered by Obama low-attention voters who would be delighted.
Also, WTF is up with the 21% of Obama voters who think that congressional GOPers are too LIBERAL?
THAT can't be solely MoE or messing with the poll, if you're getting it in a magnitude like that.
Rasmus:
That 21% could be a protest vote - Anybody But McCain.
Rasmus, you've obviously never spent much time in South Carolina. Democrats are occasionally competitive solely due to the overwhelming support of blacks who make up about 30% of the total population, but rank and file Southern black Democrats are extremely conservative on social issues. If the group ever actually voted their beliefs, the Democratic Party would be screwed.
Spratt will have an easier time against Mulvaney than your poll reflects - assuming Mulvaney's dirty real estate deals get exposed. Check out this blog: www.ilboondoggle.blogspot.com
I live in Clover> I very much disapprove of the job Spratt is doing . He need to go all he does is vote allong with Nancy. Weneedto get him out and she will no longer be speaker
He already voted on the health care bill and it BARELY passed 220-215, so there is no Democratic margin for error... Obama has already stated he is going to force cloture through the senate to get it passed so its up to us to stop it in the house. We all need to call him at his DC office (202) 225-5501 and his local office (803) 327-1114 to make it well known that if he doesn't listen to his constituents and vote NO then we will do everything possible to campain against him. Its his political death sentence.
Spratt is a poor excuse for a Congressman, he does not listen to his voters, his email has not work in weeks and his phonelines are down or either voicemails are full, no one will pick up, even today on WBTV radio the talk show host mention the fact that Spratt has shut his doors and no one can reach him, lets send his ass home to retirment and get someone in who can and will listen to the people..no more spending! no healthcare bill, stop the liberalsim of our country!
Don't judge John Spratt by what he says but by what he does. He votes party line 95% of the time.
Stimulus, Health-Care, Tax and Trade, is he really right for South Carolina.
Fool us once shame on you, Fool us 9 times shame on us!
Most of the statements here sound like partisan wishful thinking. Spratt has a history of being responsive and helpful when his constituents need his help in dealing with our inept government. He is respected and has clout on both sides of the isle as a result. He quietly gets things done for his constituents. If you ask he'll deliver. THAT'S what will keep him in office not his ideology.
Anybody who votes to keep him in office,is voting for Pelosi,Reid,Obama,Barney Franke,etc..Nuff said? Patriot
I cannot believe the people here in SC and how fast they turn on people who serve them. Spratt has brought us numerous amounts of money for roads and other projects from Cherokee county to the coast. Next time you take a trip to the coast just look at the good roads you travel now versus 15 years ago and then tell me he has not done anything. Wake politics in Washington takes being able to work with others to bring home the bacon. Think about that before you vote a person in who has no experience in Washington
"Spratt has brought us numerous amounts of money for roads and other projects from Cherokee county to the coast."
Votes bought and paid for by Spratt. Spratt is a socialist democrat following the footsteps of pelosi, reid and head marxist obama. Time to kick spratt out for good!
Note to Spratt... WHen you ignored my emails, I promised you would be fired in November. Your pink slip is waiting.
Spratt has done a terrific job for his district, and an amazing one for the military (not just in South Carolina).
Funny how that is forgotten instantly by the Teapublicans, who'd elect any breathing body to sway the national balance and don't give a damn about the military (other then eagerly outsourcing its functions to contractors).
Spratt has contributed tremendously to helping the Armed Forces turn Muslims into useful compost. That has also enriched SC, but ethically and without porky waste. Dislike him for what you will, but don't dare pretend he doesn't kick ass in behalf of our troops.
Spratt must go. He is out of touch and I don't care what money he has brought to the state. He is taking money out of our pockets.
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