Kay Hagan made a meteoric rise from the State Senate to the US Senate two years ago, thanks to a strong campaign but also in no small part to a great political climate for Democrats. As her party's image has worsened in the last year so has her approval rating and now just 29% of voters in the state approve of the job she's doing with 42% disapproving.
90% of the voters who disapprove of Hagan's performance are opposed to the Democratic health care plan, indicating that issue may be driving her unpopularity. In a state where a majority are opposed to it a rise in her disapproval numbers was probably inevitable.
Hagan has pretty solid numbers with Democrats at a 49/19 spread but faces strong disapproval from Republicans (5/72) and independents (21/48).
North Carolina's Senators are really in the same bag politically- they're not that well defined personally with the voters so their fortunes are more inclined to rise and fall with the popularity of their parties. Right now for Richard Burr that's a good thing- he got elected in a Republican year and now he gets to stand for reelection in a Republican year.
Hagan won in a Democratic year and her popularity has declined with voters turning away from her party. She'd probably lose if she had to run for reelection this year- just as Burr would have lost in 2006 or 2008- but things may be back in good shape for her party by 2014 just as they were for Burr's by 2010. Impossible at this point to say what her future holds.
Hagan's full numbers here
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So would Elizabeth Dole have won re-election had she been up in 2010 rather than 2008???
"Kay Hagan made a meteoric rise from the State Senate to the US Senate two years ago, thanks to a strong campaign..."
That campaign was financed in large part by Chuck Schumer through the DSCC, which explains her almost lock-step voting record with him. Not meaning to brag, but I wasn't fooled by Kay Hagan. She is exactly the liberal democrat I knew her to be. I hope she enjoys her 6 years in the Senate.
Elizabeth Dole probably would have been reelected had she run in 2010.
Democrats face enormous structural challenges in maintaining their fragile grip on the senate.
Follow along. Democrats will likely lose at least 8 seats in 2010. (ND, AR, NV, PA, CO, DE, IL, IN, etc.) Democrats would be lucky to hold onto a majority in the senate after 2010. (Bet you wish you were nicer to Lieberman now, huh?)
In 2012, Dems will have to defend 23 seats; Republicans only 9. (Democrats would likely become a minority in the Senate by 2012, assuming they are not already in the minority after 2010.) In 2014, Dems will have to defend 20 seats; Republicans only 13.
Many freshmen Democratic senators will not survive 2012 or 2014 elections: Tester, Webb, Hagan, Franken, Begich, etc. because Democrats will struggle to finance so many statewide elections when so many of their fundraisers are freshmen. Not to mention probable retirments: Byrd, Inouye, etc.
There's a reason such absurd supermajorities as 60 Democrats are transient. Democrats should count themselves lucky if they don't wake up in November 2014 to find 60 Republican senators in a supermajority. (Bet you'd wish you had the filibuster then, huh?)
I wish that Kay Hagen were up for re-election in 2010. I would do everything in my power to defeat her. Try sending a letter to her and see what you get in return. She has never met with the voters of NC since being elected. Does not represent NC citizens at all.
Ray
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