Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Perceptions of Brown

A Scott Brown victory tonight will certainly be huge for Republicans- but will it be big for conservatives?

In the sense that it could kill health care and other major Democratic initiatives of course. But in the sense that Republicans are best off nominating far right candidates who the party base is completely comfortable with not so much.

Consider this: 41% of Massachusetts voters either think that Brown is a liberal or moderate and with them he holds a 79-18 lead. 59% think he's a conservative and with them Martha Coakley has a 63-32 lead.

Brown is doing well with the voters who don't think he's a conservative and badly with the ones who think he is. That has interesting implications for the party moving forward this year- they're better off nominating candidates who don't come across as extremists or tea baggers. Whether the base will get the message that that's the path to victory remains to be seen.

15 comments:

Pard said...

This doesn't say much. The GOP has always run the moderate, for the win (well not always, but lately). What you are saying is Brown is just another run of the mill RINO

Anonymous said...

Don't say "tea baggers". It's childish and stupid.

Christian Liberty said...

Anyone who even uses the smear "teabagger" is a LEFT-WING EXTREMIST.

Real Americans don't smear their fellow citizens for standing up for the Constitution.

John said...

Nope - real Americans smear their fellow students for pissing all over the Constitution. And that's the tea pertiers in a nutshell.

Rasmus said...

Well, we didn't come up with this whole 'carry a tea bag' thing, did we?

David said...

What this means is that Massachusetts is a liberal state and to be successful there Republicans need to run relatively moderate candidates. Other places are more conservative and can afford to run more conservative candidates successfully.

This says little nationally except that the Democrats have significantly overreached in their ambitions and people are already tired of them. They just can't seem to govern very well. Republican's managed to gain support for the first four years of even George Bush showing that they know how to govern even when they are doing a bad job of it.

Darren said...

The 'tea-bagger' phrase actually came about when one of them held a sign at a rally that said 'Tea bag the democrats beore they tea bag you".

Chris said...

Anyone who calls out someone who uses the term "teabagger" when the "teabaggers" wear hats with teabags attached to them and mail teabags to their congresspersons and president must be suffering from dementia.

If you can't stand the label, stop associating with lunatics.

MA said...

"59% think he's a conservative"

Really? That's the worst of both worlds. I'm conservative and I think he's quite moderate.

Timothy said...

So when democrats lose it's all about the candidate. When Republicans win it's all about the message, never mind that Scott Brown worked his you-know-what off in this election. Hopefully, he'll see the fruits of his (and everyone involved) labor tonight.

Darleen said...

The only people I saw last April at the Rancho Cucamonga Tea Party Rally with a hat with tea bags were a couple of 60+ year old grandmothers. They would have had no idea of the urban sexual slang "teabagger" would mean. It is obvious from Anderson Cooper to Chuckie Schumer, they are NOT using the term "teabagger" to refer to little old ladies with tea bags. GROW UP and stop using that term for small-government, pro-Constitutional advocates.

L. said...

.

I remember when only fags would openly support tea, avoiding coffee.

.

Brandon K said...

Teabaggers? Really? You're better than that.

Dave said...

Tom,

I always respect your polling and analyses you provide despite not agreeing with you politically. However, I think you really slipped up using the term "teabaggers" in your post above.

You are much better than that, and I believe you know you are better than that, and I will give you a pass on it this time because I have never seen you use terms like that before on this site. You have a great professional website, don't let yourself ruin it by using terms like that.

Becky said...

Would you want your children asking you to define tea bagger?

You could send them to the Urban Dictionary.

Or maybe they'd prefer pictures.

Or maybe you'd just prefer not to be using that term publicly. That's the route I'd choose.

 
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