It's hard to believe that a year ago people were talking about permanent Democratic strongholds in the Mountain West. Now Barack Obama's approval is in negative territory in both Colorado and Nevada, incumbent Democratic Senators trail by as much as double digits in polls in those states, and chances for the party for Governor this year look less promising than a year ago as well.
The demographic changes occurring in that region probably do mean in the long run that the years from 2000-2050 will be more friendly to the Democratic Party than the ones from 1950-2000 were. But in the short term those shifts, such as the increase in the Hispanic voting population, aren't enough to make up for the much larger and faster shift in the national political mood since the 2008 election.
With that in mind I'm interested in looking at New Mexico next weekend as we look to do a House poll in a district where a Democratic incumbent voted for the health care bill. Here are your choices:
NM-1: Martin Heinrich won election pretty easily as Barack Obama took a 60-39 victory in this formerly Republican held district in 2008. If the Dems are in trouble here, well, they're in trouble everywhere. But I guess we already know that because of Massachusetts!
CO-3: Staying in the region, John Salazar's done an impressive job the last three elections but his district voted for John McCain even as the state went strongly Democratic and the party's brand in the state is not at its best right now.
SC-5: The Republicans always seem to think this will be the time they can get John Spratt, and up to now they've always been wrong. But Democrats knocked off some comparable long time GOP Representatives in 2006 so it could be worth a look.
WV-1: Alan Mollohan came in with John Spratt and his district has trended strongly in a Republican direction in Presidential elections. Like, say, Vic Snyder he has not been seriously challenged of late- is this the political climate that does him in?
Voting is open until Wednesday, and we'll do a statewide poll in Arkansas next weekend in addition to whatever wins from these choices.
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20 comments:
Tom,
Did you guys poll MA-Sen yesterday? How does it look?
My parents live in SC-05 (one of the many rural parts). The burgeoning suburbs of Charlotte in Lancaster and York counties in SC is changing this district more red. Also, Cherokee County is basically now a suburb of Greenville-Spartanburg, SC...the conservative heart of South Carolina. John Spratt loves to tout himself as a conservative democrat. I'd love to see a poll in this district.
And I'd love to see tons of NRCCC money going to defeat Spratt. Kind of like I'd like seeing it go down a black hole.
Hey, just had a thought. They could send it all to Huddleston to compete with that self-funding teabagger who's winning on the "liberals hate America" train former Congressman Hayes started in the 8th.
What do you think Mike Steele?
PPP, I too reside in SC and would love to see you poll SC-5, John Spratt's, I mean the SC Citizen's seat!
Hey Anonymous,
How's that hopey-change working out for you?
Got a job yet?
Spratt's got one for ya - going door to door.
Resume upgrade.
I think MO-4 and VA-9 should be polled.
I think SC-5 should be polled to see if Spratt finally ticked off enough pp; by saying he didn't need to hear from his constituents about the healthcare bomb because only he knows what is best for us. We citizens can't be trusted to think for ourselves!
There is nothing conservative whatever about Spratt. He voted for Cap and TAX and is also in favor of Obamacare. He has voted for every big spending bill that came along. He keeps getting in because he has a ton of money and because he appeals to those who want to continue living on government dole; his constituents are too brainwashed to understand how much freedom they have already lost and how much more they are about to lose.
do a poll on 5th district, Spratt is very much going to lose his district,
Paul anderko
I live in the 5th district and have seen many more people at meetings held to discuss Mr.Spratt's retirement. I truly believe this is the year he gets sent home based on the amount of anger in this district.
For those interested, Mollohan is not retiring and has filed to run for reelection today
I would like to see a poll of CO-03 and if Bennet is winning.
Did Udall win that district last year?
I live in the 5th District and many people are upset with John Spratt. He is Nancy Pelosi's little Yorky dog and votes the way she wants him to. He needs to be kicked out like many of the other ones. He has turned his back on the people of his district. Hope we can do it in 2010.
Jim Brandon
Spratt is a fat Washington cow that should have been put out to pasture a long time ago!
Poll John Spratt's district. I see the same thing that happened in Mass. happening here in November. John Spratt doesn't care what his voters think he only follows what the Dems tell him to do.
So, who won?
Yeah, who won?
my vote is for spratt v. mic in south carolina
Our vote is for PPP to focus on the Spratt-Mic race in SC.
I vote for SC District 5 !
Please do District 5 in S.C. We need to know what we need to do to
defeat Spratt/Pelosi
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