Wednesday, February 17, 2010

The Democratic Agenda

The vast majority of opposition to health care and allowing gays to serve openly in the military is coming from people who already say there's no chance they'll vote Democratic this fall. That's an indication of minimal fallout for Congressional Democrats by acting on these issues.

37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Right now 50% of voters say they oppose President Obama's health care plan to just 39% in support. Digging a little deeper on those numbers though 64% of respondents planning or open to voting Democratic this fall support it with only 22% opposed. The overall numbers are negative only because of 94/1 opposition among folks who have said there is no way they'll vote Democratic this fall.

It's a similar story when it comes to the prospect of repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell.' Over 54% of voters support it with 37% opposed. But among the voters Democrats need to make happy- the ones planning to or considering voting for them this year- there is 72/24 support for letting gays and lesbians serve openly in the military. The total numbers are brought down only because of 59/25 opposition with folks who will never vote for them anyway.

Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do. These numbers provide pretty clear evidence that most of the voters opposed to health care and repeal of DADT will not consider voting Democratic even if the party decides not to move on those issues.

Full results here

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tom,
You don't enact game changing legislation with 1 party vote. This will hurt the Dems in about 40 districts. The exploding deficits will come back to haunt Obama as they did Bush. Obama is tripling spending over the disaster that was GWB.

Kiku said...

Health care actually saves money. It should work to keep premiums in check, and keep health care costs down. DADT doesn't cost a thing. So, you point on the budget as it relates to this is?

Christian Liberty said...

Obamacare will INCREASE healthcare costs. Government mandates raise costs. Government subsidies raise costs. Expanding insurance coverage raises costs. Anyone who wants to PRETEND that Obamacare will lower costs is either misinformed or misinforming.

Anonymous said...

Hi Kiku,
No the Medicare actuary and other reports state that the Deomcrats healthcare plan will make premiums increase. Obamacare has nothing to do with healthcare. It is all about getting control in Washington. Both parties are bad for the country and are destroying it. They don't care about the normal people they represnt. Democrats only care about Union bosses and the Republicans stand for nothing.

Anonymous said...

Your poll actually shows why DADT will likely not get repealed anytime soon. Democrats and liberals have time and time again made the mistake to trust polls that suggest that America has gotten so accepting of 'gay rights'. But the truth is 37% is a very high number for a supposed non-issue. Additionally, 44% of men don't want gays to serve openly in the military compared to just 49% who do, suggesting that the male vote is not going to look fondly at the pro-gay inclinations of the Dems.

Anonymous said...

"You don't enact game changing legislation with 1 party vote."

You do if the other party leaves you no choice. Bipartisanship is the legislative way of moving legislation to the center. Because the Democrats have both conservatives (some like Ben Nelson who is more conservative than some Republican's) and liberals, the party produced legislation that is fairly centered without the help of the GOP.

Anonymous said...

"Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do."

I understand the point this post is making, but isn't willfully ignoring voter dissent, regardless of who specifically are casting the votes, something other than democracy? Just saying...

Anonymous said...

Hi Anonymous at 11:41 P.M.,
The healthcare legislation not a fairly centered piece of legislation. If it was Obama would get atleast 70votes in the Senate. He would have got Collins,Snowe and some other liberal Repubicans.They strongarmed and paid Nelson off to vote for healthcare. In the end Nelson chose party over principle. Most Independents polled are against Obamacare.

 
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