Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Giannoulias and Kirk both pretty weak

I think one of the most striking things about last night's Illinois primary results for Senate is how poorly both Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk closed.

In the December Chicago Tribune poll Giannoulias was at 31%, followed by Cheryle Jackson at 17%, and David Hoffman with 9%. There were 35% undecided. Giannoulias ended up with 39% to 34% for Hoffman and 20% for Jackson. That suggests that over the final seven weeks of the campaign Hoffman picked up more than 70% of those who had been undecided to 23% for Giannoulias and less than 10% for Jackson. Not too impressive and you have to wonder how far Hoffman's momentum would have carried him if he'd had another week or two.

Kirk didn't do all that well as the campaign heated up either though. In that December survey he had 41% to 3% for Patrick Hughes and a total of 10% for the variety of lower tier candidates in the race. Based on the final results he appears to have picked up about 37% of the undecideds from that point on to 35% for Hughes and 28% for the assortment of less serious candidates. Given how little money any of his opponents were spending that's not too impressive.

Giannoulias and Kirk's relatively unimpressive standings post-primary suggest something less than a clash of the Titans in the Illinois Senate race this year.

1 comment:

Charlie said...

Rep. Kirk didn't have to put too much money into the primary as his challengers were never very close, unlike the Democratic primary. It is interesting that Kirk gained much more than his now Democratic rival, though you are right that it is a softer boost than we expected to see.

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