Could the Republican primary for Governor in Texas end up in a runoff between Rick Perry...and Debra Medina? Medina is coming on strong and polls now at 24%, just four points behind Kay Bailey Hutchison's 28%. Perry continues to hold a double digit advantage at 39%.
Medina is clearly riding the wave of discontent with the Republican establishment. Among primary voters who disapprove of the job the GOP in Congress is doing she actually leads with 37% to 32% for Perry and 22% for Hutchison. The problem for Medina is those folks only account for a third of the electorate and among the majority who are happy with the Republicans in Washington she's in a distant third at 17% to 48% for Perry and 27% for Hutchison. There may not end up being enough discontented Republican voters for her to move into the top two but she is nevertheless exceeding expectations.
Hutchison's issues are twofold: voters trust Washington politicians even less than usual right now and she's simply not connecting with the conservative voters who dominate a GOP primary electorate. Asked whether they have more faith in Washington politicians or Austin politicians to solve Texas' problems 78% said the state level ones to just 3% picking the national level. And while Hutchison has a commanding 49-29 lead over Perry with moderate voters, she is in last place with conservatives. Perry leads the pack at 42% followed by Medina at 25% and Hutchison at 23%. 76% of likely primary voters are conservatives to only 20% who are moderates.
Medina supporters say their second choice is Perry by a 43-39 margin over Hutchison, suggesting that if Perry does win by ten points but still end up in a runoff Hutchison's prospects for gaining ground on him are not that strong.
Hutchison actually has better approval numbers than Perry, pulling a 51/28 spread to his 50/36. But with Medina in the race the anti-Perry vote is splitting almost evenly with 46% going to Hutchison and 43% going to Medina. And in a huge shift from when PPP polled this race last February Perry is leading Hutchison 61-15 among voters who like both of them. A year ago Hutchison led 49-33 with those voters. At this point they seem to be sending a message that they'd like for both Perry and Hutchison to stay right where they are.
It'll be interesting to see if Medina continues to gain over these final three weeks- even getting to a runoff would have to be seen as a pretty big victory for the Tea Party crowd.
On the Democratic side Bill White leads with 49% to 19% for Farouk Shami and a total of 8% for the other five candidates.
Full results here
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30 comments:
KBH is toast. She should drop out of this race.
Debra Medina is surging. Kay Bailout Hutchison is imploding. Medina will be in the runoff with Perry.
Looks like courageous commitment to principle and the Constitution is something that sells to Republicans in Texas.
Debra Medina-The ONLY true conservative in the race. Throw ALL of the incumbent bums out and let's take this state back at last!
Great for TEXAS! Medina is finally a candidate that's not controlled by the BIG PARTY government.
Kay Bailey Hutchinson was just voted the #2 PORKER of Washington DC last year. With over $1.6 BILLION in earmarks and spending. No wonder this country is so messed up in Massive Debt. It all goes to show you the hypocrisy of politicians like Perry and Kay Baily talk out of one side of their mouth on caring about the deficits/debt, while destroying our state/country out of the other with Billions in Earmarks that is borrowed money from foreigners.
The more Texans get to know & hear her, the higher she polls. She gets in the run-off with Perry, knocking out a sitting Senator to do so, she will then get a whole lot more widely heard for another month to erode current Perry lead.
This will eclipse Brown win in Mass, shaking up the establishment RINO's to their core, as it unleashes & energizes patriots nation-wide to support her here and then do the same in their own locales, too.
Few developing political stories have the potential for eventually later being seen by all as THE historical turning point for sparking our national return to Constitutional limits, more than a Medina win in Texas.
hellz yea. I hope KBH doesn't drop out of the race because she would likely endorse Perry. No runoff and Medina would have trouble gathering enough votes to win or force a run off.
In this model of likely voters in the Repub. primary, independents make up 22% of the electorate. Among this group Medina leads with 39% followed by Hutchison and Perry at 27% and 26% respectively. We have seen the huge impact of independents in other races, namely Massachusetts.
In this race, where coming in 2nd is basically a win (assuming no one gets 50% and that appears unlikely now), and given the trend of increasing Medina percentages among the polls, it appears she is well positioned to be in the runoff. The biggest challenge for any up-start candidate is getting past the "h/she can't win" argument. That argument doesn't hold now, being down to Hutchison by only 4% with 3 weeks yet to go. Expect those withholding their Medina support to now come out and her poll numbers and eventually actual votes will surge. We all know the supporters of "tea party" or "anti-establishment" candidates are extremely highly motivated and they will definitely vote, and that only bodes even better for Medina.
It's a new day in Texas! Go Debra!
Thanks for polling the second choice of Medina's supporters! Much closer then I'd have thought (then again so is Medina in the first round). Hope you do another one of these before the March primary.
Digging into the details of that poll, showing Medina rising to 24% and KBH dropping to 28% there's this question that was asked about Medina favorability;
_______________
Q5 - Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Debra Medina?
Favorable.. 40%
Unfavorable .. 9%
Not Sure.. 51%
________________
That tells me that she has a lot of room, with 51% 'Not Sure' yet, to bring them over to her side, once they get a chance to hear her. (The 'Not Sure' %'s for Perry and KBH were 14% and 20% respectively.)
Medina winning the run-off against a sitting Senator (KBH) will give her both that needed attention and additional time to convert many of them and further erode Perry lead.
Dig into her issues at www.medinafortexas.com and see for yourself what's getting so much traction here amongst your fellow Texans!
After Kay voted for TARP in 2008 I wrote and told her I would work very hard to make sure she was NOT the next governor of our state. I don't care that she and Cornyn finally started voting like fiscal conservatives with the stimulus bills. I have heard Debra Medina speak and she is closer to me on policy than the other two. Rick Perry can say and spell secession, but he can't make sure a sovereignty resolution is passed? Sorry, don't trust him to stand up for Texas when the nuts in DC get through with all their shenanigans. I think Debra will.
Debra Medina is a RINO. People need to open their eyes to that. Do people really want drugs legalized, etc.? I doubt it. I do like to see KBH sinking into third place, but I just wish Medina weren't such a Republican in name only herself also. Perry is the only real, proven conservative.
If national Dems were smart they would pour money on Medina, her victory over the R establishment would shake their morale. Texas is going R no matter who is on the ticket so why not put a stick in the party leaderships eye?
The majority of Texans are just tired of the established politicians and want a normal person in office.
While I've supported Rick Perry in the past, and in a race between Perry and Hutchison would not change that outcome, I absolutely have to vote for Medina in the Primary and hope that she can beat him in a runoff!
It is time to start shrinking state government, not merely limiting it's growth! We need ro rid this state of it's Midieval Robber Baron Property Tax system
This Paulite voters are great for PPP. They suggested to poll KY, CT, and TX, and those three polls made it into a lot of headlines.
As a "C"onservative, who has worked in the party since 1971, I am amazed at the number of Republican old timers I talk to who are going to vote for Medina. KBH is viewed as the Washington candidate and many think Perry has been around too long. Some go on to comment on toll roads, franchise taxes, etc. It may well be a Medina-Perry race, which is not as secure as the Governeor may think. Stranger things have happened, like John G. Tower's race a generation ago.
I urge all Democrats to vote for Medina in the Republican primary. The Democratic primary is already decided. If we do this we will at least have a decent governor if the Pubs win the election.
Medina is a badass.
Perry = meat face, KBH = douche.
Had only heard the name Debra Medina in passing UNTIL the BELO TV debate which I watched. Candidate Medina won and struck me & others as a down-to-Earth conservative with no 'agenda' for lobbyists or special-interest groups other than "We The People" which is appealing to voters this cycle. I believe Ms. Medina has the where-with-all to become a true statesman and not another politician who just 'homesteads' an office and spends millions to retain the seat term after term. We need term limits on every public office, not just the Presidency. KICK ALL the bums out: Not one [NO ONE] of any gender or political persuasion could do ANY worse! Enough said.
Medina is a RINO. Look into it. She is NOT a conservative. Far from it.
I really like seeing the ad homm attacks on medina, is this the bast you have? Toss out a statement with no support, not even bothering to cite one example? Come on you can troll better than that or are the black helecopters getting through your tinfoil?
Billie Rae, the war on drugs started with nixon, you plan on winning anytime soon? I have pictures of friends standing chest deep in poppy fields in afghanastan. We are not destroying the feilds you think the war on drugs might have a different goal than winning?
Billie Rae M, you are wrong on Debra Medina's stand on leagalizing drugs. I have the information directly from her. She is against Washington making laws where States Rights should be making them. Washington is spending money trying to control drugs which is not working. She feels that Texans (State Rights) should be making laws about drugs, marriage, cell phones, medical, etc. She will abide by the "Constitution of Texas" and uphold laws inacted by Texans. Her statement on the debate, "What we are doing now is not working" has been misrepresented, even though the statement is correct. It is not working.
Ping: Is it Medina or "Neither of the Other Two" who's "coming on strong" for the Texas GOP gubernatorial nomination?
Jim Lamberth hit the nail on the head. ind the debates she said exactly that! Texans should decide...not Feds!
Any one can regurgitate things they have heard others say about Debra but if they are thinkers and can at least "google" they will find out the facts for themselves.
But sheep like to be told what to do and where to go.
When Debra and Rick are in a head to head contest, you will see the true conservative and the tired old "see what I have done for (and to) Texas".
Maybe you texans should give Texas mack to Mexico after the genocidal 1846-1848 mexican-american war.
I sent this to the Medina campaign
"Ms. Medina,
I am taking the time to contact you regarding your heinous, idiotic statements regarding 9/11 that I heard on the radio station. By the way your back tracking explanations after your remarks don’t fly…don’t pass the smell test….you should apologize to the 9/11 victims, their families, the responders and all Americans….may I also include the 50 soldiers and baby gunned down at Ft Hood and the passengers who were on the plane with the crotch bomber. You now respond to the interview….it was in your OWN WORDS….I don’t need you to interpret the English language after statements are made.
I who has not made my mind who I will vote for governor have marked you off my list.
As an American Citizen of Mexican descent in Texas ..don’t ever think I vote ethnicity or party…. I vote regarding national security and jobs. I find you unqualified and UNAMERICAN who border security you would compromise on behalf of illegal aliens.
No response needed from you….I actually heard you…..actual, factual and in your own words."
^^ You are seriously going to take one statement that has no merit in how one can Govern the Great State of Texas and us it to justify throwing Debra Medina under the bus? Will you really vote for someone who cares more about their lobbyist then Texas over this non-issue?
Debra could say pink aliens from the center of the sun caused 9/11 and I would still vote for her.
Why?
Because the events of 9/11 are not relevant to what is happening in Texas right now. Her ideas and stances regarding taxes and property Rights, gun ownership and border control, Individual Rights and State Sovereignty... these are what matter.
I may not agree with everything she says, but there is no doubt in my mind that Debra Medina is the best person for the job.
Glenn Beck (who is friends with Perry) ambushed her on his radio show and tried to make her look like a 9/11 Truther. If he's out to get her, she's done.
Medina is coming on strong!
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