Saturday, February 20, 2010

Taking suggestions on where to poll next weekend...

Coming next week we'll have polls from Texas (early indications are that Medina is fading) and New Mexico.

Where should we poll next weekend? We're open to suggestions on states and Congressional districts. Usual criteria applies- we're not real interested in doing anything that there's a saturation of polling on, there has to be a 2010 Senate/Gubernatorial race for the statewide ones (sorry, Montana), and we're trying to do a variety of stuff (not going to do another Virginia Congressional district at this time.)

Fire away!

81 comments:

Brandon K said...

NJ-03(Adler)

Mad Joy said...

I'd be really interested to see some New York polling.

Angel Livingston said...

I would like to see a poll for WA senate. Several pundits have said Patty Murray may not be in as strong a position as she should be. To my knowledge there haven't been any major polls done to support this claim.

Rasmus said...

If not Montana, poll one of the New York upstate districts.
NY-24 (Arcuri, freshman in R+2 district), NY-25 (Maffei, D+3, freshman), NY-27 (Higgins, D+4, second-term Dem) or Massa (Ny-29, R+5, ultra-liberal freshman).

Any of those would be interesting, maybe do Massa and ask about some of his votes too.

And how Gillibrand would do against Pataki and King upstate.

Dave said...

Indiana now that senate candidates are clearer. You could try Washington or Oregon measuring people that haven't been polled. What if Gordon Smith or Greg Walden ran? Cathy McMorris-Rogers? Rasmussen is really the only one to do various Washington candidates who are running.

If there's a big change in the House composition there will have to be big Republican gains in the Northeast, particularly in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Twenty-two Democratic seats are somewhere on Charlie Cook's list.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see polling on Connecticut's senate race and 2nd, 4th and/or 5th congressional districts. Might look at Lieberman's popularity there too while you're at it.

Rasmus said...

On second thought, don't poll NY-upstate. People won't believe you there anyway after the NY-23 disaster and you have no way to prove them wrong until you do a spot-on final pre-election poll somewhere there.

Hopeful in NJ said...

I'd certainly like to see NJ-3 (Adler) too. (Also curious about how the Republican football player is doing there, but maybe that's too early to ask.)

There is a special Congressional election coming up in Hawaii -- half the state -- and you could maybe get the whole state for Governor (very open with competitive primary) and Senate (Inouye should be safe, but who knows?.)

Jon Dunne said...

How about Polling Nevada with three parties on the ballot, now that the Tea party have formally formed there?

Anonymous said...

vermont

Jose Ortiz said...

I would like to see polling at WA, CA, WI,IN or OR Senate. There have been few polls on these races. And I have a feeling that Murray is vulnerable. And I want to see that if now that Bayh is gone, the Dems have no hope in IN.

Tonight, We Riot said...

Colorado! Sen, Gov and CD-4! We can't get anything polled out here unless it's Rasmussen... and it'd be nice to have another set of eyes.

And a Dem/GOP Primary question would be much appreciate!

John said...

Poll the kentucky senate race. Let's see if Johnson has gained some support, and if so from who. Yes, you ought to include him in the poll I think.

Patrick said...

An Indiana Senate poll would be great, maybe give us a clearer idea of where the race stands. The two polling firms that have polled there recently, Rasmussen and R2K, have produced contrary results.

ID-01 would be a good congressional district to poll. Does Walt Minnick have a shot, or is he toast? Idaho polling is pretty rare.

Another good district would be LA-02. A lot of people are assuming that Anh Cao is going to lose, but I haven't seen any polling of the district. Could be a surprise.

Anonymous said...

Please do Kentucky again. I'm interested to see the impact of Sarah Palin in the race.

MLabreche said...

Kentucky Senate Race. There's been polling about the General Election since the PPP poll but nothing on the primaries.

Anarchist said...

Please poll the Indiana Senate race. I would like to see if Hostettler is doing better than Coats in the Republican primary.

Anonymous said...

How about Hostettler's race in Indiana?

Anonymous said...

WS-Senate or VA-11

Anonymous said...

Illinois

erich said...

HI special election....

wwmiv said...

Maryland Senate has never been polled.

Nevada Senate now that there is an actual Tea Party candidate in the race.

Christian Liberty said...

Rasmussen has already shown that Murray is vulnerable. What would be new to see is a poll of both NY senate seats. I strongly suspect that both Gillibrand and Schumer would top out below 50. Both are vulnerable with decent candidate recruitment.

Anonymous said...

I think the most interesting primary race is in Kentucky between Rand Paul and Trey Grayson.

There hasn't been a legitimate poll of that race since PPP's poll in December

Anonymous said...

I know it's being heavily polled, but could you do an Indiana Poll? With, I know it sounds crazy, John Mellencamp on the senate ticket? Also, do all of the congressional districts, as it seems that the 3rd, 8th, 4th and 2nd districts will be a bit more competitive than last year.

Anonymous said...

I'd love for you guys to poll the Republican and Democrat Primary for U.S. Senate in Kentucky

Jeff said...

I'll renominate FL-8. Should be fun to look at how Grayson's doing.

Drew said...

Wisconsin would seem to fit the bill. Also another idea would be to poll in Indiana and try Ellsworth's district (IN-8) after his apparent decision to run for Senate to see if that's a Republican takeover or not.

Mr. P said...

I would like to see PA-15, OK-4th District w/RJ Harris, Kentucky Senate, CT-Senate Republican Primary, Arizona Republican Senate primary with Hayworth, WI-8

Thank you!

Billy said...

South Carolina Governor's primary. The GOP primary has had 0 polling and the field has at least 3 1st class contenders and the Dems will have a heated primary too. This is one state where you can look at the primary for both parties and it will be close and critical.

Anonymous said...

Skeleton MO

long time Democrat who has voted increasingly Democrat; has not faced tough election in forever

Anonymous said...

Check out Tennessee. Lincoln Davis and/or the open TN-08 seat. Maybe the gubernatorial contest too, although that's looking to be a Republican landslide.

Eric Rowe said...

Indiana senate.

Anonymous said...

There's been a lot of polls of NY Statewide. But instead, do upstate New York and see how Gillibrand is faring there as well as the dozens of competitive house seats.

Some others...
1. Georgia - Is Isakson really not vulnerable? If Baker switched to this race to challenge him how close would he be? Nobody has tested this race yet.
2. Georgia Gov - A Rasmussen poll had Barnes ahead or 1 point behind his challengers.
3. Alabama Gov - Davis was competitive the last time you polled here.
4. Colorado - Hasn't been polled a lot since Ritter removed himself. Is Hickenlooper competitive?
5. Ohio GOV - Is it time for Ted Strickland to step aside? Are there any Democrats who can do better?
6. Ohio SEN - hasn't been polled recently.
7. Hawaii SEN - On the off chance Lingle gets in.

House races:
1. OR-05: Scott Bruun vs Kurt Schrader, classic race with no polling, competitive district. If Wyden is leading in this district, a more moderate district in the state, he is probably leading by a good margin statewide.
2. AL-02: Bright vs Roby and Bright vs Barber: extremely competitive.
3. AR-01: Can democrats retain this conservative district?
4. KS-04: A top recruit of the cycle for Democrats who is fundraising well. (Raj Goyle)
5. CA-36-DEM: Is Harman's position hurt because of that scandal she was involved in?
6. FL-08: Alan Grayson's district

Armchair Editorialist said...

I think that with Bayh's retirement, Indiana is the best option.

A Texan said...

When are you releasing the Texas poll? I'm dying to see the effect of the Glenn Beck interview on Medina's numbers...

DP said...

Connecticut

Anonymous said...

I concur about CT. You could throw in Governor, along with Dodd's seat, Lieberman's popularity and the House seats that should be competitive, especially CT-4 and CT-5.

Anonymous said...

Washington Senate - Dino Rossi vs. Patty Murray. Two recent polls (Moore Information and Rasmussen) show Rossi in the lead. Interesting to see if that trend holds.

Anonymous said...

I'd love to see something from Tennessee, especially the Governor's race and the 8th district.

gemimail said...

Okay here is one no one else is doing: the House races in Massachusetts. Scott Brown carried 7 out of the 10 congressional districts and for a change all 10 of them have Republican opposition (as opposed to 3 in 2008). Was Brown's election due to him and the campaign he ran or has the voter malaise spread to the congressional races?

Only one poll has been done in these races, MA-10 by McLaughlin & Associates and it shows Rep. Delahunt down by 3 to Malone. That was before the Amy Bishop scandal broke and we found out that Delahunt was involved in letting her get off from shooting her brother. One can imagine what the results would be now.

We show the Republicans competitive in districts 5, 10, 6 and 3 with an outside chance in 2. We even list Rep Tsongas in 5 as likely to lose. This will get you some publicity especially after you were spot on in the Brown Race. See our article, "More Scott Brown Fallout" analyzing these races at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=442&Itemid=1285. We invite you to show us that we are misreading the political tea leaves.

Anonymous said...

Fl-8

Anonymous said...

Kentucky Senate. We need an update from the last poll in December.

Anonymous said...

Kentucky Senate. We need an update from the December poll.

Anonymous said...

CD: LA-02 Is Cao really as vulnerable as people think or is Obama's good word of him when he was in NOLA helping him? Also, state sen. Ed Murray is considering a run as an independent, see if that provides Cao an opening.

State: Washington. SUSA found Patty Murray's approvals at 43/50 this week, but no polling against any of the candidates or potential candidates. Paul Akers and Don Benton appear to be the GOP front runners for now, unless Dino Rossi or Reichert enter. May also be interesting to see how Cathy McMorris-Rogers fairs.

CorpsmanUp said...

In Kentucky, the most heated primary has to be the Republican US Senate primary.
If you were to ask political machine candidates Paul and Grayson you would not know that the Grassroots candidate, Bill Johnson, is polling at a strong second position (Grayson-Johnson-Paul) in repetitive internals which he has neither requested nor paid for.
The reality is such that Grayson and Paul will not release any poll results due to the standings of Johnson and polls without him counted are therefore discounted as invald.
A scientific, statistically analyzed poll of likely Republican voters from a large statewide representative sample, including demographic tabs would be extrememly interesting, as interesting as Hayworth-McCain in AZ. Why? Because it's actually citizen candidate Johnson vs McConnell's and Ron Paul's surrogates.
Check Johnson out at www.kentuckybill.com .

Bharat said...

Please poll New York! Massa or Bishop would be great.

Anonymous said...

I would like to suggest that you poll Kentucky on the US Senate race. Include all three Republican front runners. Trey Grayson, Bill Johnson, and Rand Paul. Thank you!

Shelley said...

Indiana senate race

Lisa Graas said...

There hasn't been a good, solid poll of the Kentucky GOP primary since it began. A good poll of this race would include Paul, Grayson and Johnson. Any poll that doesn't include all three names is inherently flawed. It would poll only likely Republican voters and preferably be divided equally by four regions - north, south, east, west. It should specifically ask who the respondent plans to vote for (not a "favorability" rating) and it would be an added bonus to know the strength of support - 'strongly, moderately, leaning'.

Anonymous said...

NY Statewide - possible Kudlow and Zuckerman senate candidacies have gotten ink but not #s

IN Senate GOP primary - set a baseline for the race

HI, for reasons already stated

There are many interesting primaries in Governor races that have not been polled (SC, TN, ME, AL) - prefer South Carolina or Tennessee

Anonymous said...

poll the Republican primary for the Kentucky US Senate race again. it's been a while!

Anonymous said...

I think it`s time for Alabama.

Please poll the Governor race there incl. the primaries on both sides and Bobby Bright`s Congressional seat.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see Indiana Ellsworth,Hill, and Mellencamp, against coats, Hoestettler and Daniels. Being from Indiana, this is really interesting.

Anonymous said...

I would like to see INDIANA GOP Senate Primary and general matchups. I know RAS has done a general matchup recently and some people questioned that also the GOP polling will give us something that hasnt been done yet (Hostettler vs Coats)

Anonymous said...

Some PA polling on the congressional level.

PA-6, PA-7, PA-8, PA-11 are some ideas.

Anonymous said...

I'm again suggesting MD. Rumor is Ehrlich is going to run against Mikulski. She could lose.

Anonymous said...

The Kentucky SEN primaries. GOP & DEM.

OSUPhantom said...

I think New England will be the bell-weather for whether or not Republicans will take back Congress. If they can pick up seats in CT, NH, and even MA and RI then they could very well take back the House.

NH - 1 and 2
CT- 4 and 5
MA - 4,5,6, and 10
RI- 1
ME- 1 and 2

A collection of those seats could show if Scott Brown's victory was more than a fluke.

WRGW News said...

I know I'm just one voice of many, but I would really like to see something out of Connecticut - such as the Republican primary for Senator, potential matchups for Governor (Ned Lamont will probably be the Democrat candidate, but who will be the Republican running against him?), or maybe the District 4 congressional race- Himes won by a slim margin riding on Obama's coattails in a district that usually votes for a Republican congressman, so I think that race will be a lot more competitive than it's being given credit for.

treebeck said...

PLEASE re-poll the Texas governor's GOP primary! Much has changed since the 2/10 poll. We need to see how Medina is doing now.

Anonymous said...

Tom, I think that polling a D incumbent in a small D leaning district (for ex: D+3) with a serious GOP challenger would give a much better picture of where and how far Dems are vulnerable, we might find out that even more, or we might find out that they're only vulnerable in Red areas where Ds are still left (even if these alone are a whole lot too, still). Thanks, I know you'll like it!

Anonymous said...

Poll Washington DC. Ask the members of Congress if they need resumes.

J.W. Kingsley said...

I'd love to see polling done in Kentucky for the U.S. Senate, but I'd like to have Bill Johnson included as a choice in the poll. I think there will be a huge surprise at the results of this poll. There seems to be too big an effort to marginalize his candidacy by his opponents and the media. Let' see what transpires when there's a level playing field.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see a Kentucky U.S. Senate primary poll with all three Rebublican candidates, Rand Paul, Bill Johnson and Trey Grayson. I think the results will amaze the voters of Kentucky. I'm seeing a groundswell of support for Johnson and it's being ignored by the media. This would be huge news for all three campaigns.

Anonymous said...

how about a Wisconsin CD-8 poll! Both the general and primary elections! Would love to see where the candidates are at

Hugh said...

It might be interesting to poll the Indiana Senate GOP primary and general election, to see if Coats or Hostettler is doing better.

Anonymous said...

CA-SEN: Please poll Barbara Boxer, I really want to know if the people at PPP think that she is vulnerable.

Timothy said...

NC-13, please!

Anonymous said...

Kansas.

Open senate and governor's race.
KS-03 open house race.
KS-04 competitive race
KS-02 Republican primary challenge
KS-01 open houser ace

Nothing better than that.

tomholton1234 said...

How about staying neutral and not bashing Medina without any evidence that she is fading.

tomholton1234 said...

Also, I think Connecticut Senate needs more attention. It looks like Schiff has been campaigning harder and tapping into his cash

Anonymous said...

There are about 8 house races in each of PA, OH, NY that I would be interested in.

Anonymous said...

Poll Indiana, do it! Poll all possible outcomes, including longshots like Mellencamp, Daniels, Pence, and Carson. It needs to be wide ranging! Test the house races too!

James D said...

Mississippi 1st district... Impact of Angela McGlowan in the race and Travis Childers vulnerability.

Trent Hill said...

I'd like to see Indiana polling for the Senate race--and for the house races, too, of course. Especially the 8th, where Ellsworth is likely to leave.

I'd be interested in seeing MI-3 too, where Rep. Justin Amash seems likely to win the Republican primary.

Anonymous said...

Ohio senate or missisippi 1st

Anonymous said...

Senate primaries: Indiana, Kentucky (agree with including Bill Johnson)

Governor primaries: prefer Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee

It's pretty early to poll some of these general elections, pre-primary; many of the candidates are not well-known.

MuskogeePolitico said...

I'll suggest OK CD 2 again (held by Dan Boren, D-Muskogee).

It's a race where there hasn't been any polling, and a race where an incumbent may be more vulnerable than the conventional wisdom suggests.

Boren has attracted several GOP opponents (Dan Arnett, Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen, Charles Thompson) and a birther Independent (Miki Booth), and rumor is that former congressman Brad Carson, who held the seat before Boren, might be considering running again (many Democrat leaders are upset with Boren's conservatism).

Boren is assumed to be unbeatable, but he has never had a real opponent (ever), and the feel on the street is that he's not as popular as he once was.

PPP would be the first to poll this district... the only Democrat-held district in Oklahoma.

Brian Roastbeef said...

NY-24 please

Mike Arcuri only narrowly beat Hanna in 2008. Could be a GOP pickup this time around. This was Boehlert's old district.

Anonymous said...

TEXAS GOVERNOR -- with a LARGE number of those polled.

 
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