Next week we have our monthly 2012 Presidential poll, as well as our look at what's going on in North Carolina. Starting with the NC poll we're going to have a new wrinkle I think we'll be including on all of our statewide polls from here on out that I know all you political junkies will be very happy about- stay tuned!
For next weekend we'll take a second look at the Texas primary- Debra Medina's success is what makes it interesting and as long as she's a continued threat to Kay Bailey Hutchison we'll probably do one the weekend before the election as well.
What other statewide poll should we do next weekend? Usual criteria- don't want to repeat something we've done in the last few months, don't want to do something there are a million polls out there on. Think outside the box- and have a good weekend!
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M-O-N-T-A-N-A
Baucus is at fore-front of jobs bill debate. No polls since US Attorney scandal. Rehberg is looking to run for gov or senate, get early benchmarks on those races.
I think VA-11 needs to get some attention, it's a prototypical swing district with a Freshman Rep facing 2 credible challengers. How Connolly is doing will give vital info on the prospects of Dems in districts like PA-3, NY-20&25, MI-9, KY-3, GA-12 and thus GOP chances of getting from the likely 25-30 seat pickup scenario to 40+
Tennessee has been one of the most under-polled states holding elections. It's conventional wisdom that the Republicans are favored to take back the governorship, but to my knowledge there have been no public polls on the race at all. Also the GOP primary should be very competitive and worth a look. Other things to see are Al Gore's favorables in his old stomping grounds, how Governor Bredesen's doing (if he's still doing well he could be a future Senate candidate someday), an early look at Bob Corker's numbers, and a generic ballot test for state legislature: do the Democrats have a chance of reversing the narrow Republican majority in the House and Senate?
1. Poll Ma'am Boxer against all of the Republican contenders, please.
2. I'd love to see if Jenny Sanford's admission of Mark's refusal to vow to be faithful to her has damaged her public image.
3. Chuck Schumer's poll numbers will be interesting to see since the crusade against Wall Street by Obama.
I still say New Mexico. Haven't had a poll on anything since 2008.
California please! Would love to see early trends for Senate/Gov seat.
Rhode Island.
Not so much a different state, but if you are already polling Texas, why not poll on the school board issue? The NY Times Magazine did some coverage on it for this weekend, I'd be interested to see how Texans feel about their state school board changing the curriculum.
My suggestions would be polling Washington Senate with Dino Rossi or Dave Reichert and some of the already announced candidates, Indiana Senate with Dan Coats, and try Wisconsin Senate with Mark Neumann as a candidate.
How about the GOP primary Senate race in Indiana with Coats getting in it this past week. Who does best against Bayh?
If you want to do Senate there haven't been a lot of polls for Washington, Oregon, and Wisconsin. In the House New York and Pennsylvania figure to have a lot of close races.
There hasn't been any South Carolina 2012 GOP polling in a long time...that might be interesting and make news.
HI-Gov
As every time, I would love to see a Montana poll. Baucus, Tester, Obama, Schweitzer, Rehberg for favorability, Obama's chances in 2012, Tester vs. Rehberg in 2012, Schweitzer vs. Rehberg for the House seat in 2012, something like 'Would you like to see Brian Schweitzer run for President in 2016?'...
Also, a poll on Alan Grayson in Florida-08 would be nice.
Or what about the Murtha special election?
New York Senate
Gillibrand v generic R
Schumer v generic R
Obama approval, favorability by congressional district subgroups
Not a statewide, but PA-12 hasn't been polled since Murtha died.
Colorado Senate: General head-to-heads and Primary.
The field has kind of been shaky on both sides in the last couple weeks with Jane Norton being out-raised by Tom Wiens and with Andrew Romanoff starting to make waves in his primary with Sen. Bennet.
We've had, maybe, five polls on the race. But only one looked at the Dem primary - and that was in September.
Please do CA-SEN and NM-GOV.
Indiana Senate - Baye or Washington Senate - Murray
Michigan...
TN Republican gubernatorial primary.
Also, at least two open seats vacated by Dems in districts that have turned belligerently conservative. And the Memphis seat as well, a traditionally Democrat plantation seat, but these days, who knows?
Connecticut -04
Hynes
Here are some that I think would be good
Kentucky senate primary & general election
I agree S.C. 2012 Primary- and poll w/ Romney, Pawlenty, Gary Johnson, Huckabee, and Thune.
And for North CArolina- do favorability ratings for Jesse Helms.
Virginia-11 would be a good district to do.
S.C. 2012 primary would be very good, and you might want to test Jim DeMint in that, too.
Georgia or Alabama. Is Isakson vulnerable? Can Barnes beat the Republicans? How is Davis doing in Alabama ?
Please, look to Vermont. VT-Gov race is the alone race in all the country what can be close but without polls still.
VT-Gov can change from republicans to democrats? I think is enough interesting.
Later:
CO-Sen
OH-Gov
RI-Gov
ME-Gov
AL-Gov
For next weekend we'll take a second look at the Texas primary- Debra Medina's success is what makes it interesting
I think you'll find the thrill is gone and the unfortunate Ms. Medina is on her way back to 4%.
I would really love to see new polls from Washington state...
Bayh US Senate
Bayh vs Coats
Poll Murtha's congressional district
Hillary V.s Obama.
Vermont hasn't had any polling yet.
If you want to do district polls, more in Virginia would be nice. VA-02 (R primary and GE matchups), VA-09 (Boucher vs. Morgan Griffith) and VA-11 (R primary and GE matchups) are all potentially competitive. And I'd be interested to see how Rob Wittman is doing in VA-01. Probably won't be close, but he does have two decently-funded challengers.
I say either PA 12 or VA 11....
House seats in swing states - Nye and Connolly in VA, Dreihaus, Kilroy and Boccieri in OH, Schauer and Peters in MI, Kosmas and Grayson in FL.
WI governor.
Don't you need to redo Delaware because the TeaParty there doesnt understand one wit about polling?
I vote for CT, I love seeing Lieberman's low numbers and I wonder how Lamont will do in the Gov race.
Pennsylvania congressional district
Lou Barletta v. Paul Kanjorski
Virginia congressional district 11
Iowa or S.C. 2012 GOP Primary poll
Kentucky senate primary
Grayson v. Paul
Mongiardo v. Conway
And also do the general election
S.C. GOP 2012 Primary
Who is the 4th republican you are polling for this week?
Do a 2012 Presidential primary in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.
I'd still love to see a poll on OK-2 (Dan Boren).
Another option is the Oklahoma governor's race. Is GOP grassroots-favored State Sen. Randy Brogdon gaining ground on establishment candidate Congresswoman Mary Fallin? Will Democrat Lt. Gov. Jari Askins beat Atty. Gen. Drew Edmondson? Can the Democrats hold onto the governorship in Oklahoma, where they are losing their voter registration lead, and have lost the legislature?
No polls in either race.
How about New Mexico ?
Tennessee Gov is an interseting race. It would be nice to see how the gop primary looks, and the Dems chances on holding that seat.
Or both NY Sen
Schumer vs Kudlow
and NY Sen B with Gillibrand, Ford, Pataki, and Zuckerman (As GOP)
Nevada. Las Vegas Sun is reporting that the Tea Party has qualified to run a candidate against Dems and GOP this november. It would be interesting to see how this new developments bears for Reid's fortunes.
1) Do a 2012 Republican primary state- one of the early ones, and include a good number of candidates.
2) Utah Republican senate primary- Bennet v. Bridgewater, Lee, Eagar
3) Kentucky senate primaries & general
4) Do a 2012 Presidential primary nationally (for Republicans) and let people name any candidate they want.
Both of NH's Congressional Districts. A poll came out showing both likely Republicans leading both races by decent margins. There have also been polls that show the governors race may not be a safe as everyone thinks. John Lynch has also not ruled out retiring.
Vermont gubernatorial race.
Favorability ratings for the following people
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Mike Huckabee
John Thune
Tim Pawlenty
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Rick Perry
Jim DeMint
We need to find the point where a district is a total toss-up in the House as distinct from leaning slightly one way or another. Pick some in NY (1, 19 or 25), PA-8, OR-5, OH-18, VA (9 ,11 or both), NM (1, 2 or both), IA-3, IL-14, IN-9, or even HI-1.
I like the idea of doing an early primary state for 2012. No one has any polls out yet for individual states.
gemimail, you must see the last PPP poll for VA-5 this week.
For PPP, Perriello is in pure Toss-Up.
I'd say the the Kentucky Senate race is worth polling. How does Ron Paul's son, Rand Paul stack up against Trey Greyson in Republican primary?
I don't know the Democratic candidates but I'd like to see them polled too.
Then finally, I'd also like to see a hypothetical general election poll.
why not OR-05? Fits all the criteria (Scott Bruun is the main R)
And is Ron Wyden vulnerable? Kind of?
Virginia-11
Kentucky Senate Primary.
Benjamin C.- PPP did that race not too long ago, showing a 44-25 lead for Paul. I'd prefer to see races that haven't been polled yet.
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