Thanks for all your suggestions on where to poll this week.
Here are the finalists, voting will be open until Thursday morning:
-Alabama. Once upon a time this looked like a good opportunity for Artur Davis. I don't know if that holds true in this political climate. And who knows, maybe Ron Sparks' prospects have improved. Definitely worth a look.
-Illinois. The polling on the Governor's race since Bill Brady clinched the Republican nomination has been all over the place. Also, we haven't seen any poll trouble for Alexi Giannoulias as a result of his family's issues yet but it won't necessarily stay that way.
-Maryland. One of the most under polled states in the country and it would be interesting to see the extent to which Bob Ehrlich would pose trouble for Martin O'Malley and/or Barbara Mikulski.
-Washington. Is Patty Murray really in trouble? Limited polling has indicated yes, would be good to get another voice there.
Vote away!
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18 comments:
Start testing substitutes for the scandal-ridden Giannoulias. Anecdotal reports and speculation from Illinois is that Giannoulias cannot raise enough money and perhaps cannot survive the taint of scandal... and will eventually be replaced for a more electable candidate, such as AG Lisa Madigan.
http://hillbuzz.org/2010/03/19/bigjournalism-solves-the-alexi-giannoulias-senate-replacement-mystery/
http://bigjournalism.com/acary/2010/03/19/madigan/
Why in the world are you refusing to poll Boxer. Does she have to poll ten points behind in order to get your attention. I kept begging you to poll Coakley in MA and you guys kept not listening. She probably could have pulled it out had you guys given her some warning earlier. If Boxer gets unseated this fall, I'm blaming PPP for that one.
In WA, who would you be testing against Murray? would you try Rep. Dave Reichert and Susan Hutchison? What about businessman Paul Akers who is IN the race, but Rasmussen excludes for some reason?
Poll South Carolina's Fifth Congressional District. Incumbent Democrat John Spratt voted for the health care bill. That might put this race into play.
The last post is weird, plain weird. Not only are there plently of pollsters polling the race right Now (field and rasmussen) there is plenty of time to check in with boxer by November
And boxer knows what her own polling looks like.
So I don't get it.
Please vote for Alabama, because the state has not been polled for months now.
Illinois and Washington are polled every month by Rasmussen and Maryland is polled by Gonzales Research. The Senate race is clearly for Mikulski and O`Malley should also be favored.
"Illinois. The polling on the Governor's race since Bill Brady clinched the Republican nomination has been all over the place."
Let's see, socialist partisan DailyKos has the extremely unpopular incumbent governor leading by 15. Nonpartisan Rasmussen has two polls showing Brady up 8 to 10.
I don't think there's much mystery where the race really is, unless you live in a liberal fantasy land. Which .... oh, you do. Never mind! Poll away!
By the way, has the management of PPP donated to any of the Illinois candidates, and does or did PPP have a business relationship with any of the candidates?
Full disclosure, please.
DAMMIT!! Why Alabama? Who really cares who wins there? the three other states are far more important!! If you are going to poll Alabama, will you at least poll Bobby Brights race too?
I know it's shocking but in alabama we may win the governors race. That's why it's on there.
And a study came out showing rasmussen tilting far to the right in their polls with PPP, quinnipac, and one other in the neutral area.
Poll Washington.
I vote for Alabama between these options because I wish see the effect of the A Davis NO to HCR in the democratic primary and I wish see a full overview of the gubernatorial race. I think this NO is a mistake for A Davis, he should leave the seat before the votes.
But all options are interesting. I vote not for WA because R2K is polling the race. MD is interesting by the low number of polls and would be very interesting see more republicans than Ehrlich for booth races. I think Ehrlich has not chance and finally he will get in home. And Illinois is interesting too. If Giannoulias is replaced by Madigan better for dems. I decide to ignore all Rasmussen polls.
Patty Murray isn't in trouble. Rossi won't run because he doesn't want his real estate scandal to break.
She is miles ahead of the real candidates.
@MaryP
Martha Coakley was way ahead of a real candidate two months before the election, by a larger margin than Murray
Patty Murray is an energetic campaigned. To say that Martha Coakley wasn't is putting it mildly.
Rossi is dammaged goods and he knows it. If he announces his scandal breaks. Now McKenna has shop himself in the foot by joining up with uber conservative AGs to fight healthcare.
Murray might have had a problem if healthcare hadn't passed and a "Scott Brown" type emerged.
Two Washington races will be interesting to follow-3rd Congressional and 8th Congression. Reichert's vote against healthcare may bite him. 38% of his district strongly supported the bill as passed and another 14% wanted reform but didn't think the Senate bill went far enough. That is 52% of his district that disagree with him on healthcare.
Heck is earning financial support from independents as well as Ds. Will be be able to hold the 3rd in Democratic hands. That race will be close and well worth watching.
Poll these races in late September but we don't need anymore WA polling now.
Which ever state wins; would it be possible for you guys to poll some Congressional districts?
AL-5 and 2
IL-10,11, and 14
MD-1
WA-2,3,and 8
While I would love to have you poll my state, you should know that Sparks has been imploding lately. Davis has been attending Democratic events around the state; Sparks mainly sends out ridiculous PRs.
I actually think Ehrlich may be the best shot among them. O'Malley has never crept over 51% in any opinion poll, which coincidentally enough was Bob Ehrlich's low in his 4 years. The people of Maryland liked Bob Ehrlich. The question is will like translate to votes. The lemmings in the DC area may kill Ehrlich's chances because they forget about their local politics in exchange for the national political scene. But the other suburban and exurban areas are primed after O'Malley passed the largest tax hike in Maryland's history, did nothing to stop massive electric rate hikes, and spent the state into an $5 billion+ deficit over the next four years. I mean seriously, how hard would it be for Ehrlich to point out O'Malley left town to go to Ireland during a Special Session on taxes? Left town to go to Iraq during a session dealing with what he called the worst deficit in the state's history? Left town to go to Israel in the lead-up to the deficit recession session? O'Malley has his eyes on DC and would rather host a guiness pint fundraiser a stone's throw from the Capitol or play his guitar at the White House than ever spend time trying to pass a legislative agenda in Maryland. It's pretty sad.
Alabama is in need of some good polling.
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