We're going to have a new Missouri Senate poll tomorrow and it doesn't suggest much momentum for Democrats in the wake of health care passing.
When we looked at the state in November Barack Obama's approval was a negative 52/43 spread. It is still that exact same negative 52/43 spread.
In November 55% of voters opposed the health care bill with 34% supporting it. Those numbers are slightly better now at 54% opposition and 37% support but still pretty bad for Democrats.
Missouri's just one state- albeit an important swing state with perhaps the best opportunity for Democrats to win a GOP held Senate seat this year- but what we found there is what I expect to find across the board in our polling in the coming weeks. Passing health care won't make things any worse for Democrats- because the political damage had already been done- but it's probably not going to make things much better either.
That's because most folks who disapprove of Obama and are planning to vote for Republican candidates this year were opposed to the health care bill. So its passage isn't exactly going to win them over to the Democratic side. The concept that Obama's ratings would go up after the passage of health care because Americans 'like a winner' strikes me as first degree wishful thinking.
What impact does this all have on the Roy Blunt/Robin Carnahan race? We'll tell you tomorrow.