Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Hickenlooper starts out ahead

John Hickenlooper is bucking the trends that have Democrats trailing right now in most of the major races across the country, and that makes him the early favorite to be Colorado's next Governor.

Hickenlooper leads Scott McInnis 50-39. He's up 48-34 with independents, making this only the third race we've polled since November where the Democratic candidate had a lead with that group. And he also has Democratic voters more unified around him (85%) than Republican voters are around McInnis (77%). In the vast majority of races we've looked at recently GOP candidates are doing a better job of keeping their party lined up behind them than Democrats are.

There's absolutely no doubt Democrats are better off with Hickenlooper in the race than they would have been if Bill Ritter had tried for reelection. While Hickenlooper's favorability spread is a positive 51/27, Ritter's approval rating continues to be in negative territory as it has been for the last year at 38/50. That's a 36 point net improvement for Democrats by swapping Ritter for Hickenlooper and given that it's no wonder the party's in so much better shape now.

McInnis' favorability spread stands at 28/27, almost identical to his 30/25 standing when PPP last surveyed Colorado in August. McInnis led Ritter by 8 points then but it's clear now that had a whole lot more to do with Ritter than it did with McInnis, given the 19 point shift in the horse race we've seen since Hickenlooper entered.

There are several other good signs for Hickenlooper within the poll. He's up 47-42 with whites and given the strong Democratic lean of Hispanic voters in the state any party nominee who can even split the white vote will win statewide. And even though it won't necessarily transfer into votes he's relatively popular with Republicans, as 30% of them view him favorably. In a highly polarized political climate that's an unusual level of crossover support.

These poll results are based on a sample that reported splitting its votes 49-49 between John McCain and Barack Obama in 2008, even though Obama won the state by 9 points. So if anything these numbers may be a little on the conservative side for Hickenlooper if he's able to minimize the dropoff in Democratic turnout from the Presidential election to the midterm.

A lot could change between now and November but for now Hickenlooper stands out as a Democrat in a strong position during a difficult time for his party.

Full results here

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

When do the Senate Numbers come out?

joel said...

Either you are Rasmussen is right. He had the republican up 6. Maybe you guys can expose that fraud.
I suggest you poll Ilinois because Ras just put out a poll of the governors race showing the republican up 10, highly suspect IMO.

Anonymous said...

This poll looks like an outlier.

Even the biased DailyKos poll had the race tied in January, while Rasmussen's two most recent are +4 Hickenlooper and (the latest) +6 McInnis.

Rasmussen has independent voters going for McInnis, consistent with pretty much all polling nationally, 50-35. PPP has the reverse, 48-34 for Hickenlooper.

This is the latest in a string of PPP polls to show independents breaking strongly for Democrats, while pretty much all non-partisan pollsters show the opposite.

Brandon K said...

Are you and Rasmussen polling two different states or something? What can account for a 20 point difference?

Anonymous said...

By the way, has PPP done any work for Hickenlooper or other candidates included in this poll, or made donations to their campaigns?

Full disclosure, please.

Dave said...

Even though Republicans hold a slight registration advantage you're showing a 3 point Democratic advantage. This is the opposite of the current enthusiasm gap. You have Republicans voting for Hickenlopper at twice the rate that Democrats will vote for McInnis. Mass/NJ/Va results show the opposite. Likewise independents are reversed here as well. Your weighting assumes that 2010 will be similar to 2008, at least in Colorado.

If your weighting were closer to recent elections then McInnis would be ahead something like 46-42.

Anonymous said...

Good grief! Like the rest of the comments on this race, I can hardley believe that you are being totally honest with the folks out here. Rasmussen Has McInnis ahead of Kickenlooper by 48-42, while you/P.P.P. have it 50-39, favoring Hickenlooper. That is an unbelievable difference. I have been following Rasmussen for years now - and they have proven, time and time again, to be incredibly close, if not right on, in their polling numbers. So what gives Mr. Jensen?

Anonymous said...

McInnis isn't going to win the primary. Maes is, he has huge grass-roots backing all over the state and has one up McInnis on everying plus he doesn't turn red and blow up on the stage when he talks.

Brooke said...

Maes is going to win the primary? That guy doesn't have a chance he has no experience in politics whatsoever, he just thinks because he's a small business owner he knows what everyone wants and needs. McInnis will win the primary and the election because of what he's not...a Democrat. Hickenlooper is not even running a campaign. He's too busy running for prom king and kissing babies. These polls are no good because lord knows they're probably only polling in Denver and HELLO...Hick's the mayor! McInnis will bring this state back to where it should be, on top and then we'll go from there!

Brooke said...

yeah, comes out ahead of killing jobs in Colorado along with his Dem buddies. He would double dip his own customers...charge them for a beer and then tax them more for it.

 
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