Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Generic Congressional Numbers

Republicans continue to lead the national generic Congressional ballot by three points, as has been the case on every PPP poll so far in 2010. 46% of voters say they would vote for the GOP if there was an election today compared to 43% who would go Democratic.

There are two major trends that are driving both the Republican lead on the generic ballot and the Republican leads in many of the key races across the country. The first is a strong advantage with independents- they lead 44-26. The second is that GOP voters are more unified than Democratic ones- 87% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party this year while only 80% of Democrats are.

The Republican lead on the generic ballot can hardly be taken as mandate, given that 60% of voters disapprove of the Congressional GOP compared to just 23% who think it's doing a good job. Those numbers are actually worse than the Congressional Democrats' spread, which is 31/56. But among voters who dislike both parties the Republicans have a 49-28 advantage, indicative of an 'they're all bums but we might as well throw out the bums in charge' mentality.

The key to Democrats minimizing their losses this year may be figuring out a way to convince angry voters that things would be even worse if the Republicans were in charge. But that's going to be a hard sell.

Full results here

2 comments:

Dave said...

Voters vote on the party in power since they are the ones who pass or don't pass the legislation.

When people voted Democratic in 2006 and 2008 they didn't consider how the Democrats would govern. They only wanted to throw the Republicans out.

Some people who voted Democratic in 2006 and 2008 see things as worse under the Democrats than the Republicans.

The Democrats took control of congress in 2007, so the recession happened entirely while the Democrats had the congressional majority. Many people don't know this, so if the Republicans can remind them that it was the Republican President and the Democratic congress who stunk together they could do well.

If the public continues to hate the Democrats the Republicans need to just sell that they've learned their lesson and they're the party of fiscal responsibility again. That seems to be working.

People have short memories. After several Democratic Presidents didn't handle wars well they believed that this time under Obama it'd be different.

Anonymous said...

While PPP has the Repulicans leading the Democrats in a generic poll, by a margin of 46%-43%, Rasmussen has it at 45%-35%. Hmmm! Anyway, what I find even more interesting is that you continue to try to make this year's upcoming elections being more about voter anger being directed towards Incumbents, as opposed to one party or the other. You tried to make that point by stating that it is "...indicative of an 'they're all bums but we might as well throw out the bums in charge' mentality." Once again Mr. Jensen, it is not at all about what party or candidate is or is not in charge. The fact of the matter is that, in virtually every state, where polling has been done (at least, that I am aware of) involving Senatorial candidates from both parties - one being pitted against the other, not a single Republican incumbent is in any way, in danger of losing his/her respective seat. However, in quite a number of state Senate races, the incumbent Democrats are now losing or in trouble of possibly losing. Lets face it, This election year is and will continue to be about throwing the DEMOCRATIC bums out. And, in my opinion, this is but just the beginning of the end for the Democratic Party, as we now know it. Just watch and weep!

 
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