Republicans continue to lead the national generic Congressional ballot by three points, as has been the case on every PPP poll so far in 2010. 46% of voters say they would vote for the GOP if there was an election today compared to 43% who would go Democratic.
There are two major trends that are driving both the Republican lead on the generic ballot and the Republican leads in many of the key races across the country. The first is a strong advantage with independents- they lead 44-26. The second is that GOP voters are more unified than Democratic ones- 87% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party this year while only 80% of Democrats are.
The Republican lead on the generic ballot can hardly be taken as mandate, given that 60% of voters disapprove of the Congressional GOP compared to just 23% who think it's doing a good job. Those numbers are actually worse than the Congressional Democrats' spread, which is 31/56. But among voters who dislike both parties the Republicans have a 49-28 advantage, indicative of an 'they're all bums but we might as well throw out the bums in charge' mentality.
The key to Democrats minimizing their losses this year may be figuring out a way to convince angry voters that things would be even worse if the Republicans were in charge. But that's going to be a hard sell.
Full results here