Mitt Romney is the early favorite for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination among the party's voters in Colorado and Florida. Romney also led recent polls in New Mexico and Texas, and was second behind Mike Huckabee in both Georgia and North Carolina. Sarah Palin has not had the lead in any of the six states we've polled over the last month.
Florida's the first really important stop on the GOP calendar that we've looked at, and Romney's lead there is overwhelming. He gets 52% to 21% for Huckabee and 18% for Palin. It's closer, but still a double digit advantage, in Colorado. There Romney gets 44% to 25% for Palin and 17% for Huckabee.
In each state Romney has a big advantage with both moderates and conservatives, although he is particularly strong at this point with the center of his party. In Florida he leads Huckabee by 28 with conservatives and has a 36 point advantage over both Huckabee and Palin with moderates. In Colorado he's up 8 on Palin with conservatives, but leads her by 41 with moderates.
One particular source of strength for Romney at this very early stage is that he's doing even better with senior citizens than the overall electorate. In Florida he's up 47 with voters over 65 and in Colorado it's a 21 point margin.
How much does any of this matter at this point? Probably not a whole lot- things will change a ton over the next two years- but it's always better to be doing well in the polls than poorly. The six states we've looked at provide good news for Romney, ok news for Huckabee, and perhaps an indication that while Republican voters like Sarah Palin they aren't too into her as their 2012 nominee.
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6 comments:
9% undecided in FL -- that's sounds incredibly small two years out and before the 2010 midterm elections. I find it hard to believe that 91% of people polled have already made up their mind without any indecisiveness.
Romney is a progressive Democrat. How can Republicans vote for a guy who implemented Romneycare. Romneycare is very similar to Obamacare. That makes the GOP come across as phonies. I will vote Libertarian if they nominate Romney or Huckabee.
Tom, Nate Silver thinks Palin is strongest in the Northwest can you Please confirm this?
can you please do a GOP primary Poll in two of these states?
Idaho,Wyoming,Montana,Alaska,Oregon,Washington,and the Dakota's?
Everyone wants someone other than Palin according to you pollsters and the MSM.I remember a cbs poll in aug 07 that said only 29% thought Obama was qualified.Hillary led him in every state by double didgets.Maccain was finished,and it was going to be Romney & Hillary.Tell Kerry all about polls with 2 weeks left not 2years.I remember according to you guys Hoffman was a shoe in & Corzine was going to win.Anyways Mitt was at the top in 2005,06,07,even in 08.That is of corse untill debates and votes began being counted.You people already have Palin washed up and forgotten.Keep underestimating her please.
When we compare current polls to the cbs 2007 poll, Americans are far more impressed with Palin's qualifications than they were with Obama's. No one can possibly make a case that Palin is any less qualified than Obama.
As far as Palin's polls, you are still polling the wrong states. IA, SC, and the Pacific Northwest would be more relevant.
It;s too early for GOP hopeful predictions but lets be honest, Americans vote their security and liberty and Romney seems to be the best choice. Romney is intelligent, works with both sides, has business acumen, resurrected the Olympics, and aided troubling companies like Staples and Dominos. People don't like Romney because he is genuine, civil and sincere. However, if the economy doesnt look up anytime within the next year, Romney would be the smart pick. And for those naysayers about Health Care in Mass. please keep in mind that Romney vetoed eight sections of the bill and the Dem. legislature put those sections back in that included: abortion, unlimited in vitro, dental care for those that already got it , and low income pay nothing. That is what has skyrocketed the costs along with premiums going up in Mass. Romney put in place a good plan that was orchestrated by the Heritage Foundation. Unfort, the Dems had to have it their way.
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