Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Tough Times for Dems in the Midwest

It's really looking like a brutal year for Democrats in the Big Ten states.

Barack Obama's approval numbers in the two places we polled this week- Wisconsin and Ohio- tell the story. He won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008 but we find his approval there at a net -2 (46/48) for a 16 point drop since the election. It's a similar story in Ohio. He won there by four points in 2008 but our approval numbers there for him tomorrow will show him at -13 (40/53) for a drop of 17 points. If his national approval rating was falling the way it is in these two states he'd be at about 43/53 for the whole country.

If the election was today Democrats would likely lose something they currently hold in every state where they have something to lose- Pennsylvania Governor and perhaps Senate, Michigan Governor, Ohio Governor, Indiana Senate, Iowa Governor, Wisconsin Governor and perhaps Senate, and Illinois Senate and/or Governor. Only Minnesota doesn't join the party because Democrats have nothing to lose there.

What all this really makes me wonder is just how many House seats Democrats are going to lose in the region this year. The smattering of polling we've seen has not been very good for the party, but because it's so limited it's hard to get a handle on just how bad the situation is. Given the Obama numbers and what we're seeing in Senate and Gubernatorial polls though I'm guessing it's not a good picture for Democrats. It's going to be a very difficult year for the party in this region.

19 comments:

Al Brewer said...

Isn't disapproval, disenchantment, disappointment tied directly to unemployment numbers? And isn't unemployment about as bad or worse in the midwest as it is anywhere in the country? Who said the best government program is a job? And I don't mean an AmeriCorps job. I mean a job in a good economy. The Democrats can still salvage November with a little luck and a lot of work.

Bluejoy said...

You are very good with numbers but not with politics. The Democrats hold their majorities if not expand them. Health care changes everything, and our numbers are about to shoot up. And yes, it is a strange feeling being more prescient than anyone else.

ic said...

Unfortunately for the country, the election was not today.

Dave said...

You pose some interesting questions. Some pollster should survey the roughly 30 Democratic House districts that people think will be competitive.

Actually two Republican pollsters surveyed Illinois 8, 11, 14, and 17. In all of them the Republican is doing better than Cook or CQ rate the race. Of course a Democratic pollster might be able to provide a counter balance to see if the races are as tight as those polls say.

MarkJ said...

It's a long way to November, but, based on your analysis, if the GOP does even half as well as it hopes, November 2010 will likely see a massacre of Democrats at all levels of government on a scale not seen since the Little Big Horn. I'm willing to wager that even large swathes of the Blue Northeast will turn purple and even red.

I daresay even if the Democrats somehow hold on to Congress, relatively modest GOP Senate and House gains of, say, 6 in the Senate and 40 in the House will likely be more than sufficient to stop the remainder of Obama's first-term agenda dead in the water. Assuming she even remains Speaker after November (50-50 at best), Nancy Pelosi will no longer be able to maintain any real semblance of party discipline among shell-shocked, sauve-qui-peut Democrat survivors. And the GOP will continue to (quite effectively) wave the bloody shirt on repeal of ObamaCare.

Indeed, what undoubtedly terrifies many Democrats is that they WILL hang on to a slim majority in November 2010. They'll continue to nominally run Capitol Hill, but they'll also have all the responsibility for what comes down from it as well. And for Democrats that may be the cruelest fate of all.

Anonymous said...

Yes, and there is Congressman Hoffman from NY 23...oh yeah, not so..Quinnipiac who I trust more for Midwest polls than PPP(good for south) has Obama up on approval for a +13 pt swing, even Rasmussen has Obama at a postitive for WI Good Luck with that

Jake said...

I'll wait a month or two to see how passage of the health care bill plays. I think it's going to help the Democrats more than everyone thinks it will, but of course that will depend on whether the Democrats are smarter about selling it now.

Anonymous said...

Bluejoy's comment proves that mental wards provide computer acces their patients.

Democrats are going to get creamed in Nov.

Erik said...

"Bluejoy's comment proves that mental wards provide computer acces their patients.

Democrats are going to get creamed in Nov."

That is the funniest post yet. And, it is TRUE!

PackMan97 said...

I fear for our country. I think the D's need to lose and lose badly, however I don't hold much hope that R's would make anything better. They are part of the reason we are in the shape we are.

"Shame on everyone for Obamacare"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJz_xZZOnE8

Avon Agitator said...

Poll Ohio's 13th CD! A fascinating race shaping there in a district drawn by GOPS to favor Dems (to keep then-Rep. Sherrod Brown out of a state gubernatorial race).

It features do-little incumbent Betty Sutton, handmaiden of huge labor, against Tom Ganley, owner of multiple auto sales franchises throughout the state. He's hard-right, Tea-Party favored, with a bottomless wallet and hours of "non-political," dealership-related, face-featuring commercials running already for months on Cleveland (major district market) and Akron TV.

What more could a political junkie want? A hard-left incumbent vs. a hard-right car salesman? Big money everywhere! Best CD race in Ohio this year!

Anonymous said...

I was among Wisconsinites polled for this, and as a lifelong resident raised in politics here and watching it closely, I think that you have captured the larger problems for Democrats -- especially the gubernatorial race. The White House meddled and made a mess of it, running out the only Democrat in the running some months ago to push its own pick, the Milwaukee mayor, who was pushed out of the gubernatorial race in past. And Milwaukee mayors (or Milwaukee anythings) do not tend to do well in the state. (That's good news for me as a Milwaukeean, if he remains our mayor, as he is a great one -- but bad news for me as a Wisconsinite.)

You also correctly call, in this and earlier posts, the Senate race as even more muddled because of Tommy Thompson's coy imitation of Brett Favre. He is making a mess of it, as the GOP challengers to Feingold are not to be taken seriously. If Tommy would get out of the way, and if the GOP came up with a serious challenger -- such as Ryan -- then Feingold could be taken out.

Yes, even in "Progressive" Wisconsin. It is not and never has been so, of course; only Madison really was on that bandwagon, while the La Follettes forged effective coalitions with Milwaukee Socialists and upstate Populists (aka Farmer-Labor Party ala Minnesota). The 2008 primary fooled a lot of out-of-staters who long have misunderstood the so-called "Progressive" state. There are a lot of reasons why that primary was a fluke -- as ever in Wisconsin, February weather was a major factor -- not worth your time now.

But that's just a way to say, again, that your poll correctly captured that no matter the flukey 2008 primary, Wisconsin remains very much a swing state as it was as the closest state in previous presidential elections. So the midterms well may be even more an opportunity for the GOP.

All that said, as one of those polled, I do want to let you know that some of the options for answers to your questions were problematic. The options were insufficient in not providing me with the answers I would give if asked in another format. For example, when asked for whom I voted in 2008, I was not given the option of answering that I voted for no one on the ballot but went with a write-in. There were several examples like that, not allowing me to tell you how I plan to vote this year as well.

Thanks, though, for polling Wisconsin -- and for not falling prey to the myths and assumptions about my state.

Anonymous said...

Snore....Folks, the election is so far out it might as well be next year. This is a fun article to speculate about, but that's all it is. Not looking good for Dems but lots can change.

And even if Republicans take back the Congress, there's no guarantee everything changes. Remember the Contract with America and '94 when Republicans swept in? And Clinton's positives went back through the roof after the showdown with Congress.

Carl said...

" It's a long way to November, but, based on your analysis, if the GOP does even half as well as it hopes, November 2010 will likely see a massacre of Democrats at all levels of government on a scale not seen since the Little Big Horn. I'm willing to wager that even large swathes of the Blue Northeast will turn purple and even red. "

Worse than 1994?

I don't even think this year will be worse than 1994.

Christian Liberty said...

Iowa Gov:

"Clearly a problem for Culver is that for the second month in a row, just 41% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing, with 11% who Strongly Approve. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove of his job performance, including 33% who Strongly Disapprove.
Male voters prefer the Republican over Culver in all three match-ups..." former Governor Branstad is the also leading among female voters vs. the incumbent. "Voters not affiliated with either major party favor the Republicans by double-digit margins."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/iowa/election_2010_iowa_governor

Anonymous said...

I think this is the deal breaker for most Americans. chapter 48 section 5000a

or when they find out free health care isnt what they signed up for

SEC. 5000A. REQUIREMENT TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM ESSENTIAL COVERAGE.

`(a) Requirement To Maintain Minimum Essential Coverage- An applicable individual shall for each month beginning after 2013 ensure that the individual, and any dependent of the individual who is an applicable individual, is covered under minimum essential coverage for such month.

`(b) Shared Responsibility Payment-

`(1) IN GENERAL- If an applicable individual fails to meet the requirement of subsection (a) for 1 or more months during any calendar year beginning after 2013, then, except as provided in subsection (d), there is hereby imposed a penalty with respect to the individual in the amount determined under subsection (c).

A penalty for being an American
this is not car insurance they dont make people who choose not to have cars pay for auto insurance

The small amount of good in this bill cost us alot of our freedom

hr 3590

Anonymous said...

I keep hearing that the passage of the health care bill is going to help Democrats.

Its going to cause big companies to lower coverages to stay under tax caps, which will anger people.

Its going to cause cutbacks in small businesses that employ from 26 to 50 people, which will anger people.

Its going increase premium costs because insurance plans are going to be taxed, which will anger people.

Its going to tax hospitals, medical equipment and certain drugs, increasing costs, which will anger people.

Its to hit companies for about 8%, essentially leveling a new payroll tax, which will cause layoffs, price increases, or lower chances for pay increases as each employee will cost more to employ, which will anger people.

It will cap doctor's and drug fees in some cases, causing many doctors to opt out or change the way they practice medicine, leading to fewer doctors and longer waits and more time between things like surgeries and extensive treatments and diagnoses, which will anger people.

How is this thing going to help Democrats again?

Sam D said...

Good grief, I hate to tell you, Obama is not running. So his numbers are not a real good indicator for what voters will do in November on other offices.

In 1994 healthcare bill was pot passed. Now it is quite a different story.

Millions of people will be getting actual CARE by then and tens of thousands of jobs will be starting to be created. The 1500 new community health centers to be built, equipped, furnished and staffed will see to that.

Keep your hopes up Republicans, but above all stay pure!

gemimail said...

Instead of guessing what will happen in November, why not look at what the polls are telling us now in the House races? We keep a running tally of all polls in House races at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=468&Itemid=1311. Instead of arguing over which side will come out on top why not see what is cooking now? After all this is a polling website.

 
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