It's really looking like a brutal year for Democrats in the Big Ten states.
Barack Obama's approval numbers in the two places we polled this week- Wisconsin and Ohio- tell the story. He won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008 but we find his approval there at a net -2 (46/48) for a 16 point drop since the election. It's a similar story in Ohio. He won there by four points in 2008 but our approval numbers there for him tomorrow will show him at -13 (40/53) for a drop of 17 points. If his national approval rating was falling the way it is in these two states he'd be at about 43/53 for the whole country.
If the election was today Democrats would likely lose something they currently hold in every state where they have something to lose- Pennsylvania Governor and perhaps Senate, Michigan Governor, Ohio Governor, Indiana Senate, Iowa Governor, Wisconsin Governor and perhaps Senate, and Illinois Senate and/or Governor. Only Minnesota doesn't join the party because Democrats have nothing to lose there.
What all this really makes me wonder is just how many House seats Democrats are going to lose in the region this year. The smattering of polling we've seen has not been very good for the party, but because it's so limited it's hard to get a handle on just how bad the situation is. Given the Obama numbers and what we're seeing in Senate and Gubernatorial polls though I'm guessing it's not a good picture for Democrats. It's going to be a very difficult year for the party in this region.