The big Republican victories in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia over the last four months were all fueled by the party racking up huge wins with independents. Our final polls in those states had Scott Brown winning them by 32, Bob McDonnell winning them by 30, and Chris Christie winning them by 23.
Is the GOP having the same kind of success with those voters in all the 2010 races that it did in those contests? Yes and no.
Republicans have led with independents in 13 out of 15 Senate and Gubernatorial contests we've polled on since November. And in 10 out of 13 of those contests it was a double digit lead with independents.
At the same time only three of those races have shown the Republican candidate winning by greater than 20 points with independents, which suggests Democrats are staying at least a little more competitive than they were in the last few statewide elections.
The three races where Democrats are losing by more than 20 points with independents are some big ones- Blanche Lincoln down 46 to John Boozman, Harry Reid down 35 to Sue Lowden, and Jack Conway down 33 to Rand Paul.
The exceptions to the rule- the two Democrats winning with independents- are Richard Blumenthal by 20 over Rob Simmons in Connecticut, and Russ Feingold by 6 over Tommy Thompson.
Democrats certainly continue to have a major problem with independents but it may not be as bad across the board this year as it was in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia.
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Republicans don't need as big a margin with independents as they generated in NJ or MA or VA. In most states, they do not need to overcome as great a Democrat registration advantage or Obama 2008 vote advantage as they did in NJ or MA. Nor do they need to mop the floor with the Democrat candidate as badly as they did in VA.
Other than perhaps CA, NY, or VT such double digit margins with independents would not be necessary.
(Rasmussen) Lowden and Tarkanian are actually INCREASING their double-digit leads on Harry Reid. As long as Democrats keep pushing their health care takeover, they will only become more unpopular with independents.
Also evidence that Democrats are completely tone-deaf: Lt.Gov Halter challenges Lincoln for not being enough of a sycophant for the Obama agenda. Halter performs even worse in general election matchups than Lincoln.
Independents reject the radical agenda that Democrats are trying to ram through Congress and shove down our throats.
On Gallup's generic congressional ballot, independents would vote for the Republican candidate by a margin of 47%-31%.
Democrats hold Americans in contempt for speaking out in "Tea Parties". But the reality is that Americans see the Tea Parties favorably.
In battleground Nevada, "Forty-five percent (45%) have a favorable view of the so-called Tea Party movement. Thirty percent (30%) view it unfavorably, and 25% are not sure what they think.
Only 23% of the state’s voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement." (Rasmussen)
"Seventy-five percent of independents have a favorable view of the tea party movement." (IBD/TIPP poll Feb 2010)
When Democrats insult Tea Parties, they are insulting the same independents they need for a majority.
Here in Arkansas, 92% of the voters are registered as independent. That's why Trevor Drown (who is running as an independent) is going to win. www.trevordrown.com
The problem Trevor Drown has is that he's not attracting the independents. His message is sounding more and more like he's a fringe element radical. He obviously can't raise the money it takes to win a statewide race, probably because of the way his message is being packaged.
My guess is that 92% of the independents in Arkansas will vote for one of the major parties. Trevor is getting bad advice.
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