Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Brutal numbers for Kasich, SB 5

Ohio Senate Bill 5 may not be in effect for very long...54% of voters in the state say they'd repeal it in an election later this year while just 31% say they'd vote to let the bill stand.

The support for repealing SB 5 is reflective of a high level of support for unions and workers in Ohio, more so than we saw in Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago. 63% of voters in the state supportive collective bargaining for public employees to only 29% who oppose it. 52% of voters think public employees should have the right to strike, to 42% who think they should not. And 65% think public employees should have the same rights they do now- or more- while only 32% believe they should have fewer rights.

There are two things particularly notable in the crosstabs on all of these questions. The first is that non-union households are supportive of the public employees. 54% support their collective bargaining rights to 36% in opposition and 44% say they would vote to repeal SB 5 to 38% who would let it stand. Obviously that level of support is not nearly as high as among union households but it still shows that the workers have even most of the non-union public behind them.

The other thing that's worth noting is the independents. A lot of attention has been given to the way what's been going on in Ohio and Wisconsin is galvanizing the Democratic base, but it's also turning independents who were strongly supportive of the GOP in the Midwest last year back against the party. 62% of independents support collective bargaining for public employees to 32% opposed and 53% support repeal of SB 5 to 32% who would let it stand.

All of this is having an absolutely brutal effect on John Kasich's numbers. We find him with just a 35% approval rating and 54% of voters disapproving of him. His approval with people who voted for him is already all the way down to 71%, while he's won over just 5% of folks who report having voted for Ted Strickland last fall. Particularly concerning for him is a 33/54 spread with independents.

Voters in the state are having significant buyers remorse about the results of last fall's election. In a rematch 55% say they would now vote for Ted Strickland to just 40% who would vote for Kasich. Because this is a sample of all registered voters in the state and not just those who voted in last fall's Republican heavy electorate the self identified 2010 vote of this sample is 49% for Strickland and 46% for Kasich but that still suggests a 12 point movement toward Strickland among those surveyed over the last four months.

Of course the reality is that Democratic leaning voters did this to themselves to some extent. It's a small sample but among those who admit they didn't vote last fall, Strickland has a 57-13 advantage over Kaisch. It was a similar story in Wisconsin the other week where Tom Barrett led Scott Walker 59-22 among those who had stayed at home in 2010. Democratic voters simply did not understand the consequences- or didn't care- of their not voting last fall and they're paying the price right now. But the winners of that realization in the long run may be Barack Obama, Sherrod Brown, and Herb Kohl- these states are already looking politically a whole lot more like 2008 than 2010.

It's looking like a tough road ahead for Kasich.

Full results here

36 comments:

Shmulik said...

All I can say at this point, and it is less than three months in, is: I TOLD YOU SO....Kasich will be and now is a disaster for Ohio.

harold said...

More of the Democratic Spin,,,, I guess this is the same poll that said the Republicans would not take control of the House in November and I am sure this poll would say the Democrats will maintain the Senate in 2012,,plus Obama will win in a land slide in 2012 !!!!

Anonymous said...

Let's hope this holds. I've said it before and I'll say it again, disappointment that President Obama and the Democrats were not able to overcome Republican't obstructionism over the last two years is NOT a good reason to become cynical and withdraw. The Republican'ts have been fighting a class war against the middle class for years. It's time we realized that and acted accordingly.

Anonymous said...

Can a governor be enpeached? If so lets do it....

Anonymous said...

While I realize that PPP is a Dem polling outfit, it would be nice if he could try to tone down the partisanship just a little bit for a semblance of credibility. I have a bit more respect for the accuracy of the PPP polls but so often the polls are cited in such a way that expresses a clear bias when they could be interpreted in another way too.

Anonymous said...

"I guess this is the same poll that said the Republicans would not take control of the House in November "

Actually, PPP was one of the most pessimistic pollsters on Democratic chances in 2010, so try again.

These numbers are mirrored by the Ohio Newspapers Poll from a day ago. They are generally conservative in their leanings.

Dustin Ingalls said...

How else would you interpret numbers that clearly show Kasich is one of the most unpopular governors in the country and that the unions' side of the issues is favored strongly across the board?

Anonymous said...

Of course the reality is that Democratic leaning voters did this to themselves to some extent.

Yes, it is the voters' fault that the Democratic politicians did not represent their interests. The voters have no business taking the previous two years into account when deciding not to support the Democrats. The voters owe their votes to the Democrats, whether those politicians represent them or not. The voters had a clear choice between someone driving the car into the wall at 55MPH (Democrats) or 65MPH (Republicans). The reality is that it's the voters' own fault.

Voters get to vote. Only lobbyists willing to pay good money get representation. When will the stupid voters learn?

harold said...

More of the Democratic Spin......If I didn't know better I would think P P P was in the corner of the Democrats,,,,,I believe I also heard from another source that Obama's approval was at -20% , the lowest it has been in months....

Thomas said...

This has nothing to do with Democrat or Republican. This has to to do with right and wrong. It has to do with good leadership! It has to do with the the fact that an egomaniac is leading our state into a even darker hole. Anyone who tries to say that the debate on SB5 is nothing more politically motivated is as big of a moron as someone who strictly votes down party lines.

Until you spend a year walking in a police officers, firefighters, teachers, EMTs, or corrections officers shoes for a year you don't know what it is like. AND YES, I do work and law enforcement and have for 17 years. I have felt blessed about having a job and having benefits. My wife is a social worker an has been for over 20 years and I can tell you that we are not living the high life. There are many weeks our family barely gets by and WE are the middle class.

This bill will only weaken the middle class and cause a lot of good people that are needed for these crucial jobs of society to look elsewhere for employment.So ask yourself when someone in your family is having a medical emergency, your home is on fire, or someone is trying to break into your home...do you want the best showing up or someone that was settled on.

Anonymous said...

what's "enpeached" mean?

Dustin Ingalls said...

harold, are you that character on SNL's Weekend Update who comes on to tell Seth Meyers what he heard from his friends? Anyone who told you Obama has a net -20 approval rating probably got the 0 and 2 backwards, at best.

Anonymous said...

Oh Lord... I am tired of hearing walk in my shoes! What you have the only tough job or you are the only ones having a tough time making it financially? Oh that's right you are they only ones who worry about if you are going to have to work until your 75 because you won't have enough to retire. That's right everyone else in this State have it easy and the Public sector employee's have it terrible. Welcome to the life the rest of us have had to live the last few years.

Anonymous said...

It is way too early for the polls to have any meaning at all. If polls meant anything now, Obama would already be toast.

b.jean said...

WE OHIOANS DO NOT HAVE A GOVERNOR, WE ONLY HAVE KING JOHN KASICH, A VIRTUAL DICTATOR. THOSE OF US WHO WERE TOO APATHETIC OR LAZY, TO VOTE LAST NOVEMBER, HAVE ONLY OURSELVES TO BLAME.

HE WILL BE A ONE TERM GOVERNOR DUE TO HIS LACK OF CARING ABOUT CITIZENS RIGHTS, GOOD EDUCATION AND OPEN GOVERNMENT. NO SUNSHINE IN THIS GOVERNMENT AND NO COMPASSION - - - AT ALL.

Jim said...

5.6 million Ohio 'middle class' workers voted. There are about 188,000 full and part time state workers, of which 43% are union. Look at the negativism of a handful of blood suckers making it sound like they are getting screwed. PAY your OWN pension!

Anonymous said...

@anonymous above

So you're saying... Because private sector employment sucks, then public sector employment benefits should also suck just as bad.

Let's get rid of all employee benefits in all sectors so that the rich plutocracy can horde all the wealth, at the expense of the middle class. /sarcasm

Anonymous said...

Anyone in "private"business chose that job, just as we chose to teach your children on a daily basis. So don't complain about your life. You could have become teachers, police officers, or other helpers to the community too! And yes, you should walk a day in our shoes, to see what it is like, because we all SERVE you and your families! Maybe you would appreciate us just a little bit if you truly saw what our lives with you were like!

Anonymous said...

This is great news for all public employees! The sooner we get rid of Kasich and his outrageous ideas, the better. We have worked too hard and too long to give up our rights to a decent life. (Special Education Teacher in an urban area: who works an average of 12-14 hour days), and takes courses in the summers. (for over 30 years),WHO DOES NOT WANT TO RETIRE OR BE "PUSHED OUT" BY a non-union school system.

Anonymous said...

Of course we're not saying that only "we" (Law Enforcement) have the toughest jobs. It comes down to a matter of choice. We all chose our paths... whether it's Law Enforcement, Teaching, Iron Workers, Auto Industry, etc. Once we were all lucky enough to obtain our jobs, we negotiated and earned certain benefits through collective bargaining. It's our right to do that and maybe that influenced some decisions along the way. (Which career path to choose) What we're saying is that we (the middle class) are the backbone of society and we are what keeps the economy moving by buying, selling, lending, etc. We can't help it that the state of Ohio has mismanaged it's money and ended up $ 8 Billion in debt. The answer IS NOT to cut the middle class at the knees. This "proposed" cost savings of salaries and benefits is barely a drop in the bucket and is merely a political ploy. The actual intention of SB5 is a radical attempt to severely weaken the labor unions and will further separate the "working class" from the so called "elite". C'mon now working class, let's stick together! SB5 is not the answer.

Anonymous said...

Regardless of the intended or stated motives of the Ohio Republicans there is a desperate need to change the collective bargaining law. As a member of a local school board, I have continually struggled with the ultimate power of the teachers union because I am not some rich business owner who resents someone taking my profits, but I am representing the average middle class taxpayer hoping their child can get a good education.
I truly believe in collective bargaining but the playing field needs to be leveled.

SB 5 proposes elimination of the "step increase pay system" and replaces with pay increase based on performance measures. The unions will fight against anything that differentiates the staff because this will hurt solidarity and hence the unions ultimate power. Teachers know who the good teachers are, and the good ones aren't afraid to be given a report card.
It is true, public schools have long ago given up the fight, the financial cost of the legal battle to discipline or terminate a tenured teacher is greater than the chance of success. Teachers and their unions resist the argument that principals and school boards should be able to dismiss incompetent teachers. In fact, educators affirm that union protections make firing a teacher -- even a bad one -- nearly impossible. The unions argue that, without contract protections, teachers would be at the mercy of their employers.

In other words, they'd be just like private-sector working middle class Americans. If a teacher can't be dismissed for doing bad work, what's the incentive to do good work?

Anonymous said...

I didn't say my life sucks. Like many people we have good and bad years. I didn't choose to be a teacher, firefighter or police officer, but I do help in my community. I do support local charities when possible. My point is we all have tough jobs or times in our lives that we deal with and the public sector aren't the only ones with tough times ahead. The fact is I or we pay for your salaries and benefits and with SB5 we are telling you that there needs to be a ceiling and some changes. I have no problem paying good public employees what they deserve, but you can't tell me that there are some who do a sub standard job that still get increases and benefits that probably shouldn't. The structure is flawed and needs to be addressed. This is not a cure all for the problems we have, but it's a starting point. All of Ohioans will need to make sacrifices over the next couple years, but we can't keep going in the direction we are and expect everything to be okay. We are in a big hole and will take tough choices to get us out of it. This isn't something I or we wished for, but it's here and we need to fix it.

Bryan said...

As a school board member, one knows that it is not impossible to fire a tenured teacher if that teacher is not doing their job. Does tenure offer some protections? yes. Does tenure make it more difficult? yes. But impossible, not even close. It takes an effort from administration, a paper trail of bad work and/or bad evaluations, but that protects the teacher from over zealous administrations. I have seen two tenured teachers fired in the past five years in my district.

I am a tenured teacher, and I work 10-12 hours a day during the school year and go to school all summer long, because I care more about my students then my financial standing and my health. When I got my continuing contract (tenure as some of you call it) I worked even hard to justify the commitment my district made to me.

One last thing, those of you in private industry, your argument that "we dont have it so you shouldnt" is selfish and uninformed. Your issues should not with those of us who went to college, continue through grad school, make under $50,000 for the trade off of a decent benefit package and low co-pay. Your issue should be with your employers who are under paying you for your hard work, and not giving you the benefits you deserve. If you take your anger and resentment toward them, you will have every public worker on your side in that battle, we will have your backs, and all of our rights and benefits would rise, empowering the middle class again in this country. But your argument now just emboldens those who are trying to hold you down, like our former Lehman Brothers exec/Governor that you so blindly support.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"It is way too early for the polls to have any meaning at all. If polls meant anything now, Obama would already be toast."

When he's beating every Republican handily in pretty much every state he won in 2008, a near-landslide election?

Thomas said...

@ "Oh Lord" ...I do realize things are tough all over. No I don't feel I am immune to the same problems and struggles as the private sector. The fact remains is that my job was threatened by possible layoffs just this past year and I have been in my job for 17 years.

I realize I chose the career path that I am on and I am proud to wear a badge! I am proud to serve and I would never want to change that fact. The fact that you serve your community as a volunteer is great. I to do a lot of charity work in my community not related to my job.

However, that is not the point. I am simply saying is that there is a risk and stress factor in these jobs that warrant sufficient and fair income. As I said....yes I have a contract.....yes it affords me some benefits. and yes a lot of retirements in these jobs go to 25 to 30 years. But what you don't understand is that there is a reason why you don't have a 70 year old police officer or firefighter. Do you really want a 65 year old police officer to be the first respondent to an assault call at your home or someone breaking into your home.

Furthermore, most people retire from police officer or firefighter and go directly into another job. And yes some do work until they are 65 or 70. They are no different than anyone else. They have children in college, mortgage payments, utility bills, ect.

You had the opportunity to choose the career path and you chose your own path. Others should not be punished because of the path they picked. Do you think I don't pay taxes? Do you think that a rise in property, income, or sales tax does not hurt my family too?!

SB5 has only one purpose and that is to make the rich get richer and MORE of the middle class suffer for it.

Kevin said...

middle/lower class stick together-great advice. vote on the ones driving us least fast into the wall...rep or dem. just stick together.
Ignore the trolls-neo-con sock puppets sent to divide and anger.
keep your heads and stick together. bargaining with employers either collectively or alone is a good thing.
Quit cutting taxes on corps and rich and raising everyone else. Pin those tax loopholes together and get them to pay their fair share.

Kerr said...

To any individual who honestly believes that "We union workers don't pay for our benefits or pensions" is uneducated and mis-informed! Stop listening to the hype that they are feeding you! DOn't hate on us because most of us went to college and then got a job that you WISH you had!! WE are not your enemy..even when you are acting like OURS!! The writing is there on the wall and yet besides the fact that THESE RICH leaders are taking from US (the struggling middle and lower class) and you want to side with a man who wants to take away jobs, cut retirement, cut benefits and just cause more harm and good because they want to weaken Democrats! I vote for who is right, not down the party line, and let me tell you my husband has been a Correctional Officer for 10 years and he just hit 43k last year!! I am not ashamed to admit what we make, because it isn't a lot contrary to their words, we pay into his PENSION (it's called Social Security) also for the record we pay for our benefits! Our premiums have been raised 3x in the last 3-4 years and our benefits have been cut! His average life span(due to the stress of the job) is 55 years! They are not allowed to strike because of the safety it imposes on the pulblic, works 1-2 staff for 140+ inmates! He works all weekends and holidays and 2 years ago they agreed to 8 costs saving days that THEY don't get paid for. That's over a week's worth of BILLS we don't recieve, yet we still have to pay out $450 a month in our studen loans combined! If you are unhappy about what you do and don't get then blame your EMPLOYER or people like KASICH who don't give a F$## about you, and trust me he doesn't, your just a follower( a person who is so willing to follow blindly because he wishes he had more)! Unless you are rich and corrupt you will never be in their club..so get over yourself..If you want to divide this nation and their people because you are angry then go somewhere else or be prepared to get backlash..WE aren't the problem THEY Are, and when we get these people who know nothing about what it is to struggle or work holiday and weekends and pay for everything and still struggle then I will usher them straight to the front door and pledge for them..but it isn't goin to happen..Wake up you nay-sayers most of you know nothing about what you are talking about..and when a person like my husband puts HIS LIFE ON THE LINE EVERYDAY HE GOES TO WORK..your pitty little job means nothing, and most of you couldn't or wouldn't have the balls to do the jobs these men do!! It takes great-honest-brave men to save others life, or put their lives in front of their owns, imagine 140+ killers, rapists, etc surrounding you and all you got is you mace and a radio..you wouldn't make it an hour!! You're either with us all or your against us..Let's unite America..not divide our lands and our people!!

Marvelouis said...

Lazy administrators make it hard to fire teachers. All tenure does is make them follow due process. School boards have complete control over keeping good teachers and getting rid of bad ones. The system works when all parts of it do their jobs. This bill will destroy public schools. That is what it is intended to do and that is why the Gov. Kasich doesn't try to work with unions. His goal is to destroy them.

Anonymous said...

Wow! Let's start talking about the issue of SB5 and stop making this a them versus us. I've talked to many public workers who have no problem with helping to pay part of their health care or their pension. The problem is with the language of the bill - has anyone even read it?? Let me comment on just a few with regards to the area of education - first, it says that the healthcare maximum paid by the employee is 85% - meaning that the public workers could be paying up to 50% or more on their health care. Now, if you have young children, or heaven forbid, have cancer (yes, I am a cancer survivor) you could have some serious problems in the make. Secondly, seniority is no longer in effect - that means that someone who has been a teacher for years and does an excellent job may be out simply because they make more money. I wonder how many of you would say it's ok that an older adult would lose their job because they make more money then someone fresh out of school. Think before you say yes - because someday you'll be older. Next, things like class sizes can not be negotiated - so class sizes could jump up. No problem you say - try telling that to a teacher in an urban setting who is working with kids that have more baggage than any adult should have to deal with let alone a child. And before anyone starts to say, "Well the state has guidelines for class sizes" let it be known that districts can (and currently do) use their district average to get around this. So yes, you could be looking at first grade classes with 35 students in a class. Let us not forget - no salary schedule. Just like the public sector - when you start basing salaries on merit - you better be real clear on what that means because under SB5 there is no clear indication of what that is - so you better hope that you and the administrator are real good friends. Not sure how you plan a future not knowing what your salary is going to be year to year, but surely that can't hurt the economy - Oh and by the way - I know that the people that I talked to would be ok with looking at those salary scales as long as we did it fairly. Let's talk about the no striking clause - ok well, you say you can bargain - using what?? Under SB5 any disagreements between labor and management would go to a middle guy - but after the middle guy gives his ruling - the board (in the case of education) can choose to follow this or go with their own plan. HUH??? Now if you think that a school board is not going to side with their own plan, call me because I have some beautiful beach front property in Columbus I'd like to sell you. Please know that about 75% of most contracts have nothing to do with finances - it has to do with working conditions.
SB5 is really BS5 because it is not about the Ohio defecit - if this were truly the case then Kasich would not have given raises to members of his cabinet. This is about trying to break the union. This is political - if it weren't he would have met with the unions of this state - but that didn't happen. SB5 is bad news for Ohio - and I will work as hard as I can to defeat it - for everyone's future.

WATERMAN said...

One thing they never tell you is who did they sample for the polls. Unil you know that, the polls are meaningless.

Anonymous said...

Thank GOD Kasich is our Governor!

This way, the Democrats will once again hold majorities in the Senate and the Assembly. We'll also get a Democratic Governor, and President Obama will probably win over Ohio.

And remember, Ohio has voted for every President that has ever won but 2. ;) Now we wait until November, for that is when we repeal Senate Bill 5!

Anonymous said...

I'd vote for him again in a heartbeat. We finally have someone in that office who is looking out for the middle class. You see, public employee unions are not middle class, they are a special interest group that is sucking the life out of the middle class. Our taxes continue to go up as they've zoomed right past the private sector in wages and benefits. Then they take our tax money and buy politicians and finance their campaigns to put them in office so they can pass bills for more raises and benefits. Talk about your greed and corruption. Unions take the cake!

Anonymous said...

We'll see how this goes once the facts on SB 5 get out.

I think the unions are going to be sorely disappointed with the results of their war against the taxpayers.

Anonymous said...

We have put a lot of effort into this and the republicants have been pretty quiet. The poll shows only 54% support repeal. I don't think this is as good as we think.

Bonnie said...

Takes great courage to post anonymously. Chickensh*ts

Bonnie said...

Anonymity automatically calls into question one's credibility. It's cowardly.

 
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