Wisconsin is one state where Barack Obama definitely seems to be weaker than he was in 2008, but he would still win it comfortably if he had to stand for election today if not quite by the lofty margin he did last time around.
Obama's approval rating in the state is 49% with 45% of voters disapproving of him. The Democratic base stands pretty universally behind him at 89% approval and independents break slightly in favor of him by a 49/43 spread. Holding him below 50% is that he has virtually no support from Republicans, only 10% of whom approve of his job performance.
Obama's approval spread may only be +4 but his leads over all of his prospective Republican opponents exceed that. He's up 7 points on Mike Huckabee at 48-41, 9 points on Paul Ryan at 49-40, 10 on Mitt Romney at 48-38, 12 on Newt Gingrich at 51-39, and 19 on Sarah Palin at 54-35.
Ryan's performance is noteworthy. It might seem unsurprising for a native son candidate to do better than most of the rest of the Republican field in his home state, but for the most part we've found second tier candidate possibilities doing worse than Romney and Huckabee on their home fronts. So by that measure Ryan's performance is decent.
Ryan is the only one of the Republicans we tested who has a positive favorability number, at 36% rating him positively and 35% with a negative opinion. Beyond him only Huckabee even comes close to breaking even at a 34/37 spread. Romney comes in at 30/41, Gingrich at 26/49, and Palin at 32/60. This makes Wisconsin yet another on the list of swing states where voters dislike all of the potential GOP Presidential candidates.
Obama took Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, so his margins over Huckabee, Ryan, Romney, and Gingrich all represent a tightening from his victory over John McCain. Still he appears to be on much more solid ground in the state than Democrats were in 2000 or 2004. As for Palin Wisconsin makes for another of her 'Goldwater' states- her 19 point deficit would be the biggest loss for a Republican in the state since the party lost by 24 points in 1964.
Full results here