Thursday, March 3, 2011

Obama weaker than 2008 but still solid in Wisconsin

Wisconsin is one state where Barack Obama definitely seems to be weaker than he was in 2008, but he would still win it comfortably if he had to stand for election today if not quite by the lofty margin he did last time around.

Obama's approval rating in the state is 49% with 45% of voters disapproving of him. The Democratic base stands pretty universally behind him at 89% approval and independents break slightly in favor of him by a 49/43 spread. Holding him below 50% is that he has virtually no support from Republicans, only 10% of whom approve of his job performance.

Obama's approval spread may only be +4 but his leads over all of his prospective Republican opponents exceed that. He's up 7 points on Mike Huckabee at 48-41, 9 points on Paul Ryan at 49-40, 10 on Mitt Romney at 48-38, 12 on Newt Gingrich at 51-39, and 19 on Sarah Palin at 54-35.

Ryan's performance is noteworthy. It might seem unsurprising for a native son candidate to do better than most of the rest of the Republican field in his home state, but for the most part we've found second tier candidate possibilities doing worse than Romney and Huckabee on their home fronts. So by that measure Ryan's performance is decent.

Ryan is the only one of the Republicans we tested who has a positive favorability number, at 36% rating him positively and 35% with a negative opinion. Beyond him only Huckabee even comes close to breaking even at a 34/37 spread. Romney comes in at 30/41, Gingrich at 26/49, and Palin at 32/60. This makes Wisconsin yet another on the list of swing states where voters dislike all of the potential GOP Presidential candidates.

Obama took Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, so his margins over Huckabee, Ryan, Romney, and Gingrich all represent a tightening from his victory over John McCain. Still he appears to be on much more solid ground in the state than Democrats were in 2000 or 2004. As for Palin Wisconsin makes for another of her 'Goldwater' states- her 19 point deficit would be the biggest loss for a Republican in the state since the party lost by 24 points in 1964.

Full results here

8 comments:

Bonncaruso said...

The composite polling of the last 7 polls before election day in 2008 gave Obama an average of +11.93.

He won WI with +13.90, almost 2 points better than the last polling convergence.

So, if he is up on Romney (who will be the nominee, btw) by 10, then he will probably win by 12.

Anonymous said...

Tom,

You may want to look at who the undecideds are in your poll before you scream Goldwater.

They are all people who already have voted for her for Vice President. There are no undecided Obama voters left in the matchup. The undecideds will almost all vote for her given who they are.

Tom Jensen said...

So what you're saying is you do think she'll get annihilated, just not by historical proportions?

Smooth Jazz said...

"So what you're saying is you do think she'll get annihilated, just not by historical proportions?"

No, I think what he is saying is that your polls are so tainted, only the DailyKOS kids and people of their ilk believe you guys. At a time when O is crashing in the Gallup and Rasmussen dailies and other respected polls like YouGov and Quinnipiac show him losing altitude big time, you guys have him "winning handily" everywhere. We'll see what numbers you continue hiving up in gas prices stay elevated or increase further.

What a croc your bogus polls are. Like I said earlier, no one else is polling as much as you guys these days. So you have the floor to yourselves until other pollsters join the fray who can then be compared to you guys. Until then, you are free to push any meme you want, to keep your sponsors, the far left blog DailyKOS happy. One day, I predict you will come back down to earth with your polls.

Brian J said...

Smooth Jazz,

Tom Jensen can tell you if I am way off here, but I think you are comparing apples to oranges here. His approval ratings are a key to his popularity and his reelection chances, but they don't line up exactly, to say the least, with his reelection chances. When asked if they had to choose between Romney and Obama, for instance, people might not always be thrilled with Obama, but they'll vote for him anyway. It's not clear whether that's because their slight disapproval is outweighed by their overall happiness with him, or because the Republican candidates are just that unappealing. Maybe it's both.

Whatever the case, it's entirely believable that he's doing well in center-left or deep blue states despite having mediocre approval ratings nationally, which by the way aren't crashing down.

Anonymous said...

Is Palin still leading in the WI GOP 2012 race like she was in December?

I Am Iron Man said...

Smooth Jazz - You are full of it!

Obama isn't "tanking" on Gallup: he's been between 45% and 52% for a very long time now, he's at 46% at the moment.

PPP's approval ratings for Obama are right there where Gallup puts them (and I've noticed on many occasions they've been lower!)

PPP's state general election polls aren't so much showing that Obama is overwhelmingly popular. It's that the GOP candidates are incredibly unpopular.

Re: Rasmussen - Unlike PPP polls, their polls have been proven to be biased.

Proof: Rasmussen Republican Bias In 2010.

Johnson said...

I noticed Rasmussen has a new Wisconsin poll out which actually has worse numbers for Walker (and better numbers for Obama - they have him at 55% approval in Wisconsin) even though their poll is "Likely Voters" ! When PPP's numbers are friendlier for the Republicans than Rasmussen's it's time for the Smooth Jazz type right wing loons to admit there's no reason to suspect PPP's current polling is biased (especially considering their great track record.)

 
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