The finalists for where we'll poll this weekend are:
-Connecticut. We still haven't looked at it since it became an open seat, we will eventually!
-Delaware. One of the few states with races for both Governor and Senate next year. I know everyone's dying to see the Tom Carper/Christine O'Donnell numbers.
-Hawaii. Need to look at what would happen both if Daniel Akaka is the nominee and if he retires- would Linda Lingle be viable under either circumstance?
-Maine. We know Olympia Snowe is vulnerable to generic challengers from the right, but how about the actual ones she's picked up so far?
-Mississippi. Interested in seeing if the state is supportive of Haley Barbour for President, and we can take a first look at the race to replace him.
-Missouri. One of the Senate races where the landscape has changed a lot the last few months since we polled it, with Jim Talent out of the mix- and it also has interesting contests for President and Governor next year.
-New Hampshire. Recent UNH and Magellan polls told very different stories about Barack Obama's prospects for winning the state again so it would be interesting to see where we fall on that spectrum.
Voting's going to be open for about 24 hours. Top 2 win- don't cheat the poll or we'll throw out the state you cheated for- and we'll take question suggestions starting tomorrow night for the winners.
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10 comments:
For-fun request: Next time you poll NJ, poll favs/unfavs of Rep. Rush Holt (who famously beat Watson at Jeopardy and might see his profile raise a bit from that... and more seriously it might be interesting to see how he would fare in a statewide contest.)
New Hampshire, though I'm fine with Hawaii, too. I just feel like NH should've been polled weeks ago.
Tom,
On January 31st, you wrote:
New Hampshire. Main interest here, like last week, is seeing what impact Rudy Giuliani getting into the Presidential race would have in the state. And also if the huge Republican year in the state bodes poorly for Obama's reelection prospects next year or if that was just a blip on the radar.
Giuliani is now scheduled to give the keynote address at the Lincoln/Reagan Dinner in Manchester, NH on March 18. It'll be interesting to see the extent to which you show Rudy cutting into Romney's support, and whether Giuliani could beat Obama in the Granite State. Hopefully, enough of your readers concur this time around so we can find out.
Missouri winning? Come on, you guys are so boring! Missouri has gotten lots of polling. Hawaii hasn't been polled AT ALL.
^agreed. Giuliani needs to be polled here, should NH win this.
Can't see wasting to much effort assessing Giuliani's impact, as he is unlikely to do much better in the 2012 primaries than he did in 2008. He has too many 'liberal' skeletons for the current GOP primary voter and his noun-verb-911 shtick becomes less relevant with time. He might be a spoiler for Romney in NH, but that is probably a moot point.
Maine. Tea party cannibalism will be a big story next year. It will be interesting to see how strong it is in Maine.
I voted for New Hampshire - it should play an interesting roll in the GOP nomination process and it's also a pretty good indicator of Obama's overall strength I think.
Maine, given that it will be crucial Dem attempts to counter-balance the GOP Senate advantage. My prediction; Dodge will presumably be ahead of D'Amboise because of CPAC, but both will poll relatively low based on initial ID. Also, D'Amboise is a better fit for the Tea Party and might overtake once the race gets going.
Scarcelli for the Democrats, who expressed interest if Snowe was primaried. Not Chellie Pingree, ruled herself out. Maybe Michaud?
Missouri my first pick, next New Hampshire
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