Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Minnesota Miscellaneous

-Voters in Minnesota are not terribly into home state politicians Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann running for President next year. Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann Presidential run- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away.

Pawlenty at least has some level of interest in his running for President from the party base- 57% of Republicans think he should run. GOP voters though would much rather Bachmann ran for the Senate (43% think she should do that) than President (which only 26% think she should aim for.) We'll have numbers looking at how Pawlenty and Bachmann would do when matched against Amy Klobuchar and Barack Obama in the state over the next two days.

-The buyer's remorse about the results of last year's Gubernatorial elections that we've found in midwestern states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania appears to be a Republican only phenomenon. Mark Dayton has a very solid 51/38 approval rating with more GOP voters (12%) happy with the job he's doing than Democrats (6%) who are unhappy. Independents think he's doing a good job by a 48/39 spread as well. In a hypothetical rematch he would defeat Tom Emmer 48-36, quite a contrast to his less than 1 point victory last fall.

Voters are siding with Dayton in his battle with legislative Republicans over raising taxes on the wealthy. Only 32% of voters want a 'cuts only' solution to balancing the budget compared to 63% who support increased taxes on the wealthiest 2% of voters in the state.

-Speaking of that Republican legislature it might be a short lived phenomenon. GOP legislators have a remarkably bad 29/58 favorability spread. The DFL folks aren't popular either at a 39/45 favorability, but they still lead the Republicans 49-40 on the generic legislative ballot.

-Voters in the state are about as evenly divided as they could be on gay marriage. 46% support a constitutional amendment to ban it, 47% are opposed to amending the constitution in that manner. As usual the generational divide on the issue is staggering- seniors support a ban by a 57/34 margin while every other age group opposes it. There aren't a lot of policy issues I would say this about but public opinion on gay marriage is shifting so quickly that it wouldn't be surprise me if opposition to this amendment grows by 5 or 6 points in the 17 months between now and next November's election. My guess is that an anti-gay ballot initiative that polls as a tie in May 2011 fails in November 2012.

Full results here

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

How was the question asked on the marriage amendment? When was the poll taken?

Anonymous said...

First of all, the marriage amendment is not "anti-gay." I happen to be gay and support it, so please stop patronizing the gay community by assuming we all have the same values and opinions.

Secondly, polling is consistently wrong on this issue, and I am confident that the amendment will pass by a pretty decent majority. Polling in neighboring Wisconsin showed similar numbers, and that amendment passed by a 60-40 margin when it also banned civil unions.

I suppose only time will tell...but I have little doubt it will pass.

Dustin Ingalls said...

"How was the question asked on the marriage amendment? When was the poll taken?"

Read the poll. Why do people ask questions they can find out on their own?

Anonymous said...

"First of all, the marriage amendment is not "anti-gay." I happen to be gay and support it, so please stop patronizing the gay community by assuming we all have the same values and opinions."

I'm pretty sure you're the only one who hates himself enough to have that position.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

"First of all, the marriage amendment is not "anti-gay." I happen to be gay and support it, so please stop patronizing the gay community by assuming we all have the same values and opinions."

I very seriously doubt you are gay, as this amendment is totally anti-gay. If you are gay, I do think you are either illiterate or a homophobic poser if you truly support it.

I pray this will not pass as it is wrong on so many levels.

Secondly--I do hope that other states are not taken in by the Minnesota presidential hopefuls. They may have some good talking points but, as Minnesotans, we are woefully aware of their inability to affect needed changes for many different reasons. And one of them is just plain scary!

Anonymous said...

I can't imagine why any gay person would support this amendment regardless of how they feel about marriage. This is about writing discrimination against a group of people into the constitution, pure and simple. This is no different than saying that marriage should only be allowed between a white man and a white woman. just change the attributes and it is clear that writing anything into the constitution that excludes some people is bad for all of us. what is to stop the next group in power from defining marriage in the way that their religion defines it?

Kevin said...

Dpending on how Perry v. Schwartznegger turns out, I wouldn't be surprised if by 2014-16 we see a bunch of propositions that would legalize gay marriage on the ballot. (with many passing)

It'd be a little awkward, considering all the 'one man one woman' clauses, but I imagine you could have the text be something akin to 'A marriage shall ALSO consist of a legal union between two unrelated consenting adults of the same gender.'

jpm said...

Thanks for doing the entire suite of marriage equality polls!

Steve said...

I have to weigh in on the commentary with this poll. The pollster assumes that because his poll now finds a tie, it will fail in November 2012. I take issue with that because that is similar reasoning that the director of the Field Poll took in 2008 when he was polling gay marriage in California in early 2008. He said that no proposition that had that much opposition early on went on to pass. Wow was he wrong.
Aside from that, the other thing about this poll that stood out to me is that 'support' for gay marriage seems to be quite soft. Consider how it was a tie in a 2-way question but when offered the marriage-civil unions-nothing question, 60% said civil unions or no recognition. I predict a majority of Minnesotans will ratify this good amendment.

Steve said...

Kevin said, "Dpending on how Perry v. Schwartznegger turns out, I wouldn't be surprised if by 2014-16 we see a bunch of propositions that would legalize gay marriage on the ballot. (with many passing)"

I think that not's as likely as you think. Perhaps a few states but not many.

And the reason it's 'awkward' is because it's unnatural.

Mark B. said...

Thanks, PPP, for polling the state legislature question. I think these are just as important as any other horse races, and they are not typically paid any attention to by most pollsters.

As to the question of gay folks like me supporting gay marriage bans- horse puckey. No one I've known who's gay or lesbian has ever made any such intimations. And by the by, I can promise anyone who's confused that we're indeed just doing what comes NATURAL-ly, and that ready or not the day will come when we all have marriage equality.

Sam said...

"First of all, the marriage amendment is not "anti-gay." I happen to be gay and support it, so please stop patronizing the gay community by assuming we all have the same values and opinions."

I met a guy similar to your stance, only he said he would vote against a marriageamendment. He didn't think the gay community is deserving of civil marriage but he didn't believe in these marriage bans and found them to be cruel. At any rate, I hope you don't live in Minnesota and the fact that you posted your comment anonymously shows that you really aren't proud about who you are and the stance you have taken.

Anyway, thank you PPP. For all your hard work. I love visiting your blog to gain good insight about the many states and where they stand.

Anonymous said...

I really don't know why so many people insist that you guys poll gay marriage... I mean it's important to me and all, but you keep on finding the same exact thing! There's nothing new! There hasn't been since, when?

Alex Laska said...

The level of anonymity in this comment section is quite amazing - all the anti-gay folks (even the ones who purport to be gay) won't even give a clue as to who they are; it's obvious that they do not have the courage to stand by their bigoted beliefs in public.

Well, let me shatter that pattern: my name is Alex Laska, I am a gay man, I support gay marriage, and that amendment will fail in 2012.

By the way, comparing this to the Wisconsin ballot initiative makes no sense whatsoever - that initiative was FIVE years ago. Even Prop 8 is becoming outdated, as that occurred almost 3 years ago. Anyone who's been tracing gay marriage polls cannot possibly deny that opinion on this issue has changed dramatically over the past few years, even since 2008 - in favor of marriage equality.

Thanks, PPP, for polling this issue - it IS an important issue, and one that deserves attention from pollsters.

 
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