New Mexico and Texas were the winners of our vote on where to poll next week, so:
-What Senate match ups would you like to see tested in the two states?
-What should we ask about besides the standard Presidential, Senate, and approval rating questions we do on all of our polls?
Always appreciate the good suggestions y'all give us.
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33 comments:
Who's more popular, Dirk Nowitzki or Mark Cuban?
Of course the Senate in Texas. For the Republicans include Ted Cruz, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst.
For the Dems include Tommy Lee Jones (yes the actor there is some buzz), Chet Edwards, Bill White, and Ricardo Sanchez.
Also a generic Congressional and legislature ballot would be really cool.
There was some recent controversy about the line item veto in NM's budget (the state supreme court ruled Martinez's use of it unconstitutional). Might make an interesting question - also interested to see if there is buyers remorse there about the current governor.
Heinrich's now open seat in NM-01
I suggest that we add Rick Perry to the list of possible opponents of President Obama in both states. I can imagine Rick Perry jumping in at any time as the political lizard (Newt Gingrich) becomes irrelevant.
We should ask Texans about what they think of the last somewhat-successful episode of secessionist talk. Texas, after all, was the state least hurt by the Civil War. Also interracial marriage (meaning black-and-white).
I'm most curious about the primaries for the open Senate seat in New Mexico. I'm particularly interested in how well known each of the major candidates are state-wide (Heinrich, Balderas, Wilson, Sanchez, etc).
For TX dem primary and General you should poll Tommy Lee Jones, Chet Edwards, John Sharp, Bill White, and Ricardo Sanchez.
I would like to see some polling regarding the redistricting in Texas, and whether they would like some sort of reform. perhaps the latter could look something like "would you support or oppose an independent commission for legislative and congressional redistricting that creates districts based on compactness and communities of interest instead of districts that favor one political party over another". This is basically the California system.
I'd also like to see George Bush Favorables. maybe a matchup between him and Obama just for fun.
Do you think the Census was conducted fairly? (Good question cause of the Latinos)
NM:
Wilson vs. Sanchez primary.
Heinrich vs. Balderas primary.
Martinez v. Udall, 2014
Who is more responsible for the economic situation in New Mexico, President Obama or Governor Martinez (rotate).
TX:
I wouldn't test Dewhurst unless you have the space. He hasn't announced and it doesn't look like he will.
A Cruz-Leppert-Patrick-Williams primary would be good.
Sanchez vs. Tommy Lee Jones primary.
"Do you think Governor Rick Perry bears any responsibility for Cameron Todd Willingham's execution in 2004."
New Mexico:
Martin Heinrich/Hector Balderas/Diane Denish vs. John Sanchez/Heather Wilson as potential Senate matchups would be interesting to see.
Texas:
Ricardo Sanchez/Sean Hubbard/John Sharp vs. Elizabeth Ames Jones/Ted Cruz/Tom Leppert in Senate matchups.
Also, it would be interesting to see how Rick Perry polls in Texas against Obama and against the others in the Republican primary, just in case he does in fact decide to run.
For both states, I would love to see the "should same-sex marriage be legal or illegal" question AND the question with the 3 options (marriage, civil unions, or no recognition). I think it's important to ask both questions because, as we saw in Minnesota and other states, the results can be skewed if you just ask the latter question.
It would be really really interesting to see the results on this issue (which I don't think I've EVER seen in New Mexico) and the results would contribute greatly to the statewide levels public opinion that you have already investigate in other states.
It would be especially interesting to see the results of same-sex marriage questions in these states because they are part of a region (Southwest) that seems to be rarely polled regarding gay rights.
For TX: Do you believe Rick Perry is gay?
I would also like to see for Texas approval ratings for Kay Baily, George W. Bush, LBJ and Sam Rayburn.
Test a Rick Perry vs. Bill White rematch to see if the situation here is like that in Ohio or Wisconsin.
Random cultural questions for either/both state(s):
"Do you believe that there is a scientific consensus which shows that global warming is occurring and is man-made?"
"Do you believe that there is substantial scientific evidence to support the theory of evolution?"
Or a question concerning abortion rights ranging from no exceptions to no restrictions and various positions in between.
Since you all have asked questions about the rapture and the civil war in the past I would be especially interested to see how Texans would respond to the above questions.
I think reaction to the immigration law in Arizona would be appropriate in this case.
Do you think the new immigration law is fair, or unfair? Goes too far, doesn't go far enough, is just right? Unfairly targets hispanic americans, or is fair to all races?
John Sharp is not running for the Texas Senate seat. Hell, his campaign webpage was being typosquated to peddle boner pills the last time I checked...
BTW, those interested in the Texas Senate race will find a lot of coverage on my blog.
PPP,
As I do I name 3 or 4 people per race just as SUGGESTIONS! I don't want to appear to be dictating!! Thank you for all your hard work!
All candidates listed are publically stating interest or are announced.
New Mexico:
Senate:
Republican:
* Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson
* Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez
* Businessman Greg Sowards (he has already had a tv-ad)
Democrat:
* Congressman Martin Heinrich
* State Auditor Hector Balderas
* Former Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish
* Former Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez (passed up the 2008 senate race)
Other New Mexico:
* 2010 Susana Martinez v. Diane Denish
* Approvals for Martinez, Denish, and former Governor Bill Richardson
* Possibly polling Gary Johnson for President since he was Governor of NM for 8 years.
Texas:
Senate:
Republican:
* Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst
* Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert
* Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz
* Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams
* Congressman Michael McCaul
* State Senator Dan Patrick
* Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones
(I am really sorry I named a lot of people for the TX GOP)
Democrat:
* Former Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez
* San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro
* Former State Comptroller John Sharp
* Former Congressman Chet Edwards
Thank you so much again PPP!!!
- Pat
Is there anyway you can over sample Hispanics in Texas?
I'm very interested in Latino Party ID/generic ballot in both states and how they match up to Latino approval for Susanna Martinez, John Sanchez in NM and Ted Cruz in TX, respectively.
The question of whether nominating Latinos to high-profile races has an effect on generic performance and/or Party ID is one with national implications.
As far as I can determine, no poll of same-sex marriage has ever been done in New Mexico.
Why not be the first?
For NM:
GOP Senate Primary matchup and favorables
Dem Senate Primary matchup and favorables
Senate general election matchups (all four major combinations)
Gov. Martinez approval
Obama approval
GOP Presidential Primary matchup and favorables (must include Gary Johnson)
Obama vs. generic R
Obama vs. major GOP nominees (and Gary Johnson)
NM-1, to the extent it could be polled meaningfully
For TX:
Others will know better, but you have to have the Perry favorability, GOP primary, and Obama vs. Perry scores.
For both, gay marriage, the Civil War question, and state legislative partisan control preference. Acceptance of human-induced climate change would be a good one, too.
For Texas, since Perry is making noises about running for President, a 'should Perry run for President' question would be timely, along with 'In your opinion, is Mitt Romney conservative enough to be the Republican nominee for President?' since Perry's stated rationale is that Romney isn't conservative enough. Also, "Do you believe the redistricting process in Texas is fair and honest?" and "Do you think judges should be elected?" and "Do you support Texan secession from the United States?"
For New Mexico, maybe "Do you believe it should be legal to bring a concealed gun into a bar?" since Arizona allows that now. It might also be interesting to see cross-tabs on "How many children do you personally have?" with, say, 5 being the 'five or more' so it's not totally open-ended. Also, "What language do you mostly speak at home?"
I'd definitely ask about President George W. Bush's current approvals in Texas, as well as where he would place in a hypothetical Republican primary in which he was allowed to run. For candidates, probably Tom Leppert, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Ted Cruz, and Rep. Ron Paul on the Republican side, and Lt. Gov. Ricardo Sanchez, Chet Edwards, and Bill White on the Democratic side.
As for New Mexico, test Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, Heather Wilson, and Greg Sowards on the Republican side and Rep. Martin Heinrich, Auditor Hector Balderas, and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish on the Democratic side.
Oh, a secession question in Texas might not go amiss, either. Something like, "Would you support, if it were an option, the peaceful secession of Texas as an independent republic from the United States?"
I'd like to see Kinky Friedman polled in Texas. Just for fun. Who knows, he actually might run again.
In Texas, see how people feel about the new redistricting plan.
Specifically, find out what they think about Ron Paul's district being made much more difficult for a Republican to win in.
I know it gets to be a bit trite to say so but same-sex marriage is a huge issue right now so it would be great to have this question asked.
Also Rick Perry's standing in Texas would also be interesting to see.
Thanks, PPP, for taking requests.
I voted for Texas. But, while this may seem remote, I'd like to see polling on the five border-south/south states that voted both times for Bill Clinton: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
Of these five, it is Ark. that most interests me, because 49% females voted for 2004 John Kerry; they dropped support to 39% for Barack Obama. This state gave 2004 George W. Bush a margin of 9.76%. Ark. gave John McCain 19.85%. Margins, nationally, for Bush was 2.46% and 7.26% for Obama. Obama shifted 9.72% of the 2004/2008 vote. Ark. went 10.09% more Republican. Hillary Clinton would've won women closer to 59%. (Males were status quo: 40% each for Kerry and Obama.) So, I want to see whether there's any change in Ark. (Note: Historically Ark. voted for all prevailing Democrats prior to Obama.)
I just finished the Texas polling call. What's up with the Civil War question followed by an interracial marriage question? Why don't you just ask if it bothers me that President Obama is black? So much for the "post racial" President. You guys are as bad as CBS.
I'd love to see Heinrich vs. Balderas-- Wilson vs. Sanches (with maybe Sowards thrown in) and in NMCD01 that Heinrich will vacate maybe a D primary Eric Griego vs. Marty Chavez and a R primary Dan Lewis vs. Jon Barela
NM-1:
Republicans: Dan Lewis vs. Jon Barela
Democrats: Diane Denish/Eric Griego/Marty Chavez
New Mexico Statewide: Do you agree that illegal immigrants should or should not have driver's licenses?
Statewide approval ratings for Paul (maybe a separate question directed at those in his district) and Perry of course. The should both be in match-up questions here in Texas. With Bachmann in the race for certain now, a question about a woman President (with male/female/age) demographics would be nice. Finally, What is more important to you this election season economic, social concerns, or foreign policy including the wars?
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