Monday, May 21, 2007

Under the Dome's take on our poll

Under the Dome this morning give our latest poll a prominent position, thank you N&O, but I think they misinterpreted the results. Here is what they reported:
But voters don't seem particularly overjoyed with any of the prospective Democrats. Those polled said they would be less likely to vote for the ticket if Democrats John Edwards, Barack Obama and especially Hillary Clinton were on the ticket.

Asked if they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket if Edwards was the nominee, 33 percent said more likely and 46 percent less likely. The numbers were worse for Obama and Clinton.
Now that maybe the literal truth, but that’s not what the numbers are really saying. The questions were not meant for the topline results, but for the crosstabs and the comparisons between candidates.

We know that if Edwards were the nominee it would not make 79 percent of voters more or less likely to vote Democratic. Right now about 80% of voters know that they are already going to vote either for the Democrat or Republican. They might not admit it, but it’s the truth. It’s not going to matter if Edwards were the nominee or not.

It’s the other 20% of voters that matter, and the voter turnout by each party’s base. That’s why the crosstabs by “undecided” or unaffiliated are more interesting, than the topline numbers.

1 comment:

Will Cubbison said...

Its also important that many of those saying less likely were the people who are already voting Republican.

I have yet to see the N & O properly report on a poll when they try to explain the results.

Just look at their white wash of Dole's number against Cooper. For her to be under 50% and within 10 points of someone who has said he wants to stay where he is is incredibly bad. Yet they act like she is safe. Its pretty impressive reporting really.

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