The Governor's race in Arizona continues to shape up as a rare opportunity for Democrats this year to pick up a major office they don't already have control of. But although Terry Goddard still leads all of his Republican opponents in the race, incumbent Jan Brewer's position has improved a good deal since PPP last looked at the state in September.
In the most likely match up for this fall Goddard leads Brewer 47-44. That represents a tightening since Goddard held a 46-36 lead over her last fall. Partisan preferences have hardened in the wake of Brewer's signing a tough immigration bill last week. Where Brewer was getting only 59% of the Republican vote in our last poll, she's now at 73%. But Goddard has seen a similar improvement in his own party, improving from 77% of the Democratic vote to 88%. The main reason for the overall tightening is that where Brewer trailed Goddard by 12 points with independents previously, that's now just a 2 point deficit.
There has been a great deal of movement along racial lines. In the September poll Goddard had a 3 point lead with white voters, but he now trails Brewer by 8. At the same time he's increased his lead with Hispanic voters from 20 points to 46. There are a lot more white voters in the state than Hispanic ones so from a cynical, purely political perspective Brewer's actions last week probably did her some good.
Goddard has more comfortable leads against the rest of the Republican field. He leads Buz Mills 45-37, Dean Martin 47-36, and John Munger 46-31. In a hypothetical contest against Joe Arpaio he holds a 47-44 advantage identical to the one he posts against Brewer.
Brewer is still not very popular, with 35% of voters in the state approving of her job performance and 46% disapproving. But those numbers represent a significant improvement from where she stood last fall, when the approval was a 26/43 spread. Her greatest gains have come with Republicans who now give her a positive 54/27 approval after previously giving her a negative 28/37. She's still on negative ground with independents but has seen an improvement there as well, from 26/46 to 33/39. The reason her overall numbers are negative though is that Democrats have turned against her in a big way- her disapproval with them has spiked from 48% to 75%.
This is likely to be a tight race, and after last week perhaps one of the most closely watched contests in the country this year.
Full results here
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27 comments:
Independents will certainly support the immigration enforcement bill. The lawlessness coming over the border is a bigger issue in AZ than anywhere, especially after illegals murdered a popular rancher with impunity.
Brewer may be less popular because of the economic contraction, but Goddard will forfeit the election if he comes out against immigration enforcement. If enough people think the Democrat supports immigration enforcement (like most rational people) he may sneak by. If enough people think the Democrat would enable the illegal border invasion and whine about profiling, Arizona will not support him.
thank you
Favorability for Arpaio (known for immigration enforcement) is much higher than that of Goddard. In fact, the only candidate that a majority of Arizonans approved of was Arpaio. And for all the concern about Arpaio being "controversial" he is as competitive against Goddard as is Brewer (both within MOE)... and Rasmussen has Brewer up 44%-40% against Goddard.
When hispanics are only 29% of the population and only 17% of the likely electorate, the susceptibility of hispanics to the demagoguery of the left is not a deal-breaker by any means. Independents overwhelmingly support immigration enforcement. And courageous politicians should not make wimpy threats of hispanic retaliation the least impediment to doing the right thing and protecting the lawful citizens of America and lawful residents of Arizona.
When 70% of Arizonans and 69% of independents support immigration enforcement, what could possibly make enforcement "controversial"?? other than the hand-wringing of leftist elites in the leftist establishment media.
Notice that support for Arizona's immigration enforcement bill is nearly twice as great as the size of the leftist minority that rammed Obamacare down America's throat. But because leftists don't like it, they get to PRETEND that immigration enforcement is "controversial". GIVE ME A BREAK!
The race still leans to the GOP. Because the more people learn about the "controversial" enforcement measure, the more they will support it. And the more Arizonans learn about the position of the Democratic party, the more they will see the Democrats as the enemy of civil society and the rule of law.
Though there isn't a big difference between your's and Rasmussen poll when matching Brewer vs. Martin (Rasmussen had Brewer up 4 and you down 3 because of margin of error) but matching against Martin, Rasmussen had Martin up 13 and you down 11! this is a huge difference! who has it dead wrong????
The impact of Democrat fearmongering will have subsided by November. Hispanics may even begin to see the benefits of tighter immigration controls within their own communities. It's likely the ramp up in support on the Democrat side among Hispanics is a passing phenomenon. Historically, it always has been.
"It's likely the ramp up in support on the Democrat side among Hispanics is a passing phenomenon. Historically, it always has been"
yeah right, just like in California after prop. 187 ... LOL !
the GOP is committing long-term political suicide w/ this issue ... but, hey, more power to them on that ...
I am glad to see Goddard leading in the polls. Someone has to show the Republicans that the American people won't tolerate the Stalinist policies signed by Brewer last week, requiring all residents to carry proof of citizenship with them at all times or be subject to harassment by police and their fellow citizens.
Thank you AZ GOP!!! You've just handed President Obama and the Democrats AZ's 11-12 electoral votes come 2012. Now you can join the CA GOP in permanent political irrelevance!
Izanagi,
You do know that 51% of white democrats are supporting this bill in Arizona, right? When it comes to legalizing illegal immigrants, most of the Americans including African Americans are opposed to the idea. So, you are ready to legalize 15 to 20 million illegal immigrants? Be real
Rationally, legal residents and citizens will support enforcement. Only those brainwashed by the demagoguery of the left would oppose verifying the immigration status of those in the state.
This will make the GOP MORE popular with independents and legal immigrants, including hispanics. This will make the GOP the majority party for decades. Democrats have exposed themselves as corrupt and hysterical lunatics for opposing enforcement of immigration laws on the books.
Arizona law is appropriate and sensible:
"Has anyone actually read the law? Contrary to the talk, it is a reasonable, limited, carefully-crafted measure designed to help law enforcement deal with a serious problem in Arizona. Its authors anticipated criticism and went to great lengths to make sure it is constitutional and will hold up in court. It is the criticism of the law that is over the top, not the law itself.
The law requires police to check with federal authorities on a person's immigration status, if officers have stopped that person for some legitimate reason and come to suspect that he or she might be in the U.S. illegally. The heart of the law is this provision: "For any lawful contact made by a law enforcement official or a law enforcement agency…where reasonable suspicion exists that the person is an alien who is unlawfully present in the United States, a reasonable attempt shall be made, when practicable, to determine the immigration status of the person…"
Critics have focused on the term "reasonable suspicion" to suggest that the law would give police the power to pick anyone out of a crowd for any reason and force them to prove they are in the U.S. legally. Some foresee mass civil rights violations targeting Hispanics.
What fewer people have noticed is the phrase "lawful contact," which defines what must be going on before police even think about checking immigration status. "That means the officer is already engaged in some detention of an individual because he's violated some other law," says Kris Kobach, a University of Missouri Kansas City Law School professor who helped draft the measure. "The most likely context where this law would come into play is a traffic stop."
Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Byron-York/A-carefully-crafted-immigration-law-in-Arizona-92136104.html
The AZ law is basically racist. Has anyone considered that fact that not all illegal aliens are hispanic or coming over the border from Mexico? There are white illegals from Canada and Europe in AZ. Your law makes suspects of latino U.S. Citizens and treats them as second class citizens by putting them under suspicion by default.
The police, like commenters to this article, will only racially profile people who "look like" aliens. The GOP, Tea Party-types and conservatives are driving away minorities in droves (and don't give a darn about it).
Worst is the fact that here are plenty of people/people who will have no problem hassling and cracking the heads of latino innocents if it leads to an arrest of guilty people.
AZ will come to regret this law because it dishonors many of your citizens.
I love the idea you have on protecting your state . I don't know why people are fighting against you but they blame for enforcing the law
Now I see that Rasmussen has Brewer pulling ahead after signing of bill, ahead 48-40 on Goddard. Job approval spiked to 56% from 40% 2 weeks ago.
What does she expect? By signing that horribly racist racial profiling bill she has lost all support from Hispanics, and will never get it back. I find it amusing. She will get what she deserves
Brewer receives a BOUNCE from signing the immigration enforcement bill.
56% now approve of Brewer after signing the immigration bill into law, up from 40% just two weeks ago. 22% now strongly approve, up from 5% two weeks ago. (Rasmussen Apr 28)
Has there ever been a measure THIS POPULAR!?! Has there ever been a measure that can boost a politician's popularity this much?
Delusional leftists who like to PRETEND that there is anything wrong with a fair and even enforcement of existing law are sowing the seeds of their own demise.
The matchup against Goddard also shows Brewer expanding her lead, from 44-40 two weeks ago, to 48-40 today. (Ras Apr 28)
This is the second time in as many months that Brewer has been on the right side of a major issue and Goddard has been on the wrong side.
In March, Goddard refused to challenge the unconstitutional monstrosity that is Obamacare. When Brewer acted, she erased his momentary advantage and regained the lead in the polls. When Brewer signed this commonsense bill into law, she extended her lead over the Democrat.
Signing the immigration bill into law and challenging Obamacare were absolutely the right decisions. And the Republican will be rewarded for opposing left-wing lunacy and representing the will of the people.
Just remember that Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, was re-elected Governor of AZ in 2006 with 67% of the vote.
We will see similar results with Goddard.
"Do you favor or oppose the new immigration law signed by the Governor last week?
64% Favor
30% Oppose
6% Not sure"
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/arizona/toplines/toplines_arizona_and_immigration_april_27_2010
This commonsense immigration enforcement bill makes Republicans MORE POPULAR with Arizona and with America in general... and once again exposes Democrats as completely out of touch with their constituents.
Already Goddard opposed his own constituents when he refused to challenge the OBVIOUSLY unconstitutional monstrosity that is Obamacare. How much more can Goddard openly and defiantly show himself to be a left-wing nutjob who is horribly out of touch with Arizona?
Watch the statements Goddard makes in criticism of this commonsense immigration reform bill. According to AZCENTRAL.com Goddard's criticsm of the bill was: "We've got some very serious crime problems out there, and this bill does not address them. It does not give us tools to go after criminals that are part of the cartels." While factually incorrect, (checking immigration status of those stopped for other valid police reasons certainly would be helpful and appropriate, although possibly insufficient) the tone of his criticism is reassuringly moderate (for now).
For now, his criticism appears to be that the law is insufficient or may not be effective. Fine. But if he veers left and tries to claim that there is anything wrong with verifying immigration status, he will forfeit the election. Independents will not tolerate someone who values overlooking illegal immigration over the security of lawful citizens and the even application of the law.
@Bryan,
The immigration law is appropriate. OPPOSITION to this commonsense law is racist.
Racism comes from the left.
Justice comes from the right.
It is the right that sees all people as equal and judges the content of their character. It is the left that stokes and exploits lingering racial tensions.
It is Republicans that honor Martin Luther King's legacy by judging all equally before the law. It is the Democrats who continue to practice racism.
Justice comes from conservatism.
Racism comes from progressivism.
PPP's AZ poll:
Only Arpaio (pro-enforcement) has favorables above 50%.
RR post-signing:
Brewer receives a bounce from signing the enforcement bill that now places her favorables above 50%.
So, only candidates who are publicly in favor of enforcement have 50+% favorables. No candidate who opposes enforcement does.
And how does the left think they are going to win over an electorate that disagrees with them on
1) challenging Obamacare as unconsitutional
2) enforcing existing immigration law
Unless Democrats run AS CONSERVATIVES, they cannot win. Arizona wants what the Republicans are offering. Unless Democrats run to the right of the Republicans, they don't have a chance.
@Horus
Democrats only win when they run AS CONSERVATIVES. Democrats won in 2006 by running AS CONSERVATIVES (reforming ethics, reducing spending). Then Democrats got in power and exposed themselves as left-wing frauds. Once again, the more conservative candidate will win. Only this time, the people won't be fooled into thinking that Democrats would actually govern as conservatives.
In theory, the law is probably ok, but the reality is that the way it will play out is that officers will ask people that look a certain way for papers. Or for example, my last name looks Hispanic, I am not and I was born in the US. I now live in AZ. So, if a cop pulls me over because my license plate lamp is dim (they do that here) does the cop then have the right to demand my "papers" ie my birth certificate because based on my last name he has reasonable suspicion to believe that I am here illegally? Thats why this law is a problem. No doubt that there is a problem on the boarder. But this is not the solution.
Christina
Not dissing you here Tom, but do you have any explanation why your poll is so different from Rasmussen? In fact all AZ polls have been all over the place. Are pollsters polling different states by mistake?
He needs. To quit so the Americas has a fighting chance
Arizona's immigration enforcement law is so obviously appropriate that Texas may soon follow.
“The first priority for any elected official is to make sure that the safety and security of Texans is well-established,” said Rep. Debbie Riddle, R-Tomball. “If our federal government did their job, then Arizona wouldn't have to take this action, and neither would Texas.”
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/politics/Austins_attention_turns_toward_Arizona_law.html?showFullArticle=y
60-70% (depending on the poll) support Arizona's immigration verification. This will only make the gop MORE POPULAR with independents in AZ, TX, and nationwide. Democrats are delusional for trying to pretend that enforcing the law evenly and fairly is somehow going to be unpopular.
I've done some extensive research for this guy, Hess earned my vote. I beleive that he's well rounded and flexible for the good of Arizona. I'm for the fence to be built and also aprove of some kind of national guard influence at our border. Don't get me wrong, I want the fence because less Hispanics will die in the desert and the guards for the hick rednecks that have shot and killed illegal imigrants, "no one says anything about that though"! So I'm voting for Goddard this term. He is the right choice.
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