Friday, April 16, 2010

More on Burr's numbers

Earlier this week we showed Richard Burr with his worst poll numbers since we started monthly tracking in December of 2008. But we're not alone- Republican firm Tel Opinion Research, which does polling for the right wing Civitas Institute, also showed Burr with his worst numbers ever on their most recent poll.

Their March survey showed 27% of North Carolinians with a favorable opinion of Burr. That number has declined every month so far in 2010. He started at 33% favorability in January and dropped to 30% in February before landing at the 27% mark in March. Even his 33% at the beginning of the year represented a drop from his standing in early 2009. In January and March of last year Tel Opinion put him at 37% favorability but he was down to 33% in April and then 31% in June before Civitas stopped polling it.

Richard Burr's camp likes to claim his vulnerability is just a figment of PPP's partisan agenda but it's hard to ignore the fact that even the polls of organizations on his team show his numbers at their worst level yet. We still don't really know the answer to whether the country is exclusively in an anti-Democratic mood or if it's an anti-incumbent one but if it turns out to be the latter, Burr will be the first Republican Senator to go.


Anonymous said...

Don't you think you're being a LITTLE disingenuous to play up Richard Burr's disapproval numbers, while totally disregarding the fact that Burr is leading the two Democratic candidates; Elaine Marshall by 16% and Cal Cunningham by 19%, in a Rasmussen poll, taken on March 22. Granted, 3+ weeks is a long, long time, but come on Tom, Lets get real - okay?

Anonymous said...

Did you conduct a 2012 GOP primary poll for your most recent national poll?

Christian Liberty said...

Agreed. Any evidence that Burr polls below 50%? Or that any Democrat challenger polls above 35%?

The Rasmussen poll was taken directly after Obamacare was rammed through. So if you want to presume Obamacare gave Democrats a bounce, are these numbers a ceiling for the Democrats? If you want to presume that Democrats can do better, would you concede that Obamacare will be an obstacle for Democrats rather than a benefit?

Anonymous said...

Commentary on a two week old poll? Trying to drive some particular line?

Anonymous said...

Wear your bias on your sleeve much, Tom?

The sample in that Civitas poll was damn near 50% Democrat... in a year when even you PPP guys say Ds are lacking in enthusiasm.

Run a poll at 42% D, 32% R, and 26% Indy.

Unknown said...

Rammed through??? Since when does over a year of discussing, voting and debating it equal rammed through???

Anonymous said...

Since Burr was elected to the U.S Senate in 2004, NC's population has increased by almost 1.2 million +. Most of these people are from up North, and tend to be registered as Independents, or Democratic. Do the math, Burr has a high chance of losing this election! Good work, Tom!

Christian Liberty said...

Sean, the MAJORITY of Americans OPPOSED Obamacare. The Democrats are on the WRONG SIDE OF HISTORY, pushing a RATIONING bill and neglecting the economy. ANY Democrat in the Senate will suffer for having their fingerprints on Obamacare.

"The Party of No" is what America wants. America wants Republicans who were wise enough to not support Obamacare. And America is eager to punish the Democrats who stubbornly rammed through an unpopular rationing bill.

Christian Liberty said...

Apr 21 Rasmussen

Burr 50 Marshall 32
Burr 53 Cunningham 31

Burr leads with women and with independents... and leads with men by more than 2:1.

61% of NC LV favor REPEAL of Obamacare (48% STRONGLY favor repeal)

59% agree that Obamacare is BAD for the country.

57% oppose the mandate to buy insurance.... and 52% approve of a lawsuit against the federal government challenging the mandate as unconstitutional.

And the Tea Parties are clearly more popular with NC than is Obama

"Fifty-two percent (52%) of North Carolina voters say their views on the major issues of the day are closer to the views of the average Tea Party member than to those of President Obama. Thirty-five percent (35%) say their views are more in line with the president's."

Burr's numbers clearly support reelection. The majority of NC likely voters share opinions more similar to Burr than to the Democrats.

Anonymous said...

Christian Liberty,

I live in NC, and know that there is no way, Burr is in as good as shape, as what Ramussen, states. Ramussen only keeps their polls, in the field for one night, which doesnt equate to accuracy. Please recall, that PPP is in NC, and was ranked higher, than Ramussen in 2008. I bet next month, Ramussen will show Burr winning the African American vote, huh? Riiight! In addition, once women in this great state realize, that Burr is AGAINST equal pay for them, those numbers, will swing rapidly in the Democrat's favor. I live here, I know.

Anonymous said...

Richard Burr is the best Senator this state has had since Jesse ... and the people of NC (including even Democrats) know it.

Christian Liberty said...

Dustin, Burr is more pro-women that any Democrat. Democrats' cynical attempts to encourage trial lawyers to persecute employers with endless litigation will only cause job losses.

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